If you look at last year, DRtg ranged from 1 (Iowa St) to 111 (Alabama) for the Sweet 16 teams. Mean was 26, Median was 14. There were 6 teams with a DRtg of 24 or higher (Creighton, Clemson, NC State, Gonzaga, Illinois, Alabama).
I have no idea where we will end up as we have a 9 game sample that puts us at 92. If our offense continues to get better as the season progresses (highly likely, currently KenPom #5), we probably can tolerate a final rating somewhere in the 30-50 range to be legitimately competitive enough to have a good chance to make it to the 2nd weekend?
That would take shaving about 4 off our current 101.1 DRtg. Seems pretty doable?