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Message: [QUOTE="UcMiami, post: 3496661, member: 199"] The number of deaths in the US doubled in two days (1000-2000), at that rate of increase, 2000 will die two days from now and 4000 in another two days and 8000 in another 2 days and 16000 in another two days - that would be 30,000 deaths in the next 10 days - not 6 months, not even 2 weeks. No idea if we have slowed the spread yet, but that is a progression that would devastate our hospital system and rather than slow the rate, when you overwhelm the hospitals death rates will increase as they have in Italy Spain and France. And what is already happening to NYC police officers is already happening in hospitals - 12% of NYPD is in quarantine, and they are not spending 12 hour shifts surrounded by covid19 patients. And here are the current CDC numbers for ages 20 - 54: [LIST] [*]CDC covers one huge 20-44 age range in its report, but here’s what we know about that group: 14.3 percent hospitalized, 2 percent in the ICU, and 0.1 percent fatality rate. [*]For people 45 to 54, the CDC reports 21.2 percent have been hospitalized, 5.4 percent were put in the ICU, and 0.5 percent fatality rate. [/LIST] The hospitalization rate reaches 30+% over 75 with with 10+% ICU and 4+% death. An average rate of hospitalization for flu is 1.4% with a death rate of 0.1% and it is spread over 6 months. Right now we have 100,000 known cases - if that 20-44 year age group was a national average, then we are currently at an additional 14,300 additional hospital beds needed and 2000 additional ICUs, and if we get to 1,000,000 cases we would need 143,000 hospital beds and 20,000 ICUs. But the case counts right now are heavily weighted to patients entering hospitals already because most of the testing is still being done with people at hospitals on arrival, so the current demand in NYC and New Orleans, and Detroit and Seattle is much higher than the 'average' numbers. Hospitals during flu season do not create temporary morgues as they are at various hospitals already. This disease spreads faster than flu and is 10x more deadly than flu. That is the reason people are trying to slow the spread. [/QUOTE]

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