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Message: [QUOTE="Hunt for 7, post: 5261347, member: 12414"] He is going to be a star at the next level. He will need to improve his shooting and probably for the first time in his life he will regularly be guarded by a man his size with similar athletic traits which will take some adjusting too, which will happen, because he is pretty close to a generational basketball talent. I don’t think he will have the impact as Wemby because Wemby has not and will not for some time face anyone his size with the same athletic traits, but he will be all nba good in his first three seasons. Still don’t care what he does but he will not stay. My thoughts on leaving and staying is more geared towards late first round or second round picks. I started some research with the 2019 draft, because every analysis or trend I work on in my real job has a before Covid number and a post Covid number. Anyway what the search revealed is that there are a number of second round picks who either signed two way contracts worth about $750k a year or less depending how much nba time the player gets. Then the late first round picks saw a lot of 2 yr $2.4M with like $700K guaranteed contracts. Then second contracts that where maybe 2 year $4m to $5m total with even less guaranteed money. It is going to take more time than I am willing to commit to come up with a better sample size but a player like Dickinson projected late first early second round, decided to come back because he made closer to $1.8M (reported no one probably even the IRS now’s how much it really was) last year staying in college and he did that because it was the best thing financially for the him. I also did not mention the number of players drafted in the second round in 2019 or 2020 who are no longer in the nba. It is not insignificant. But again that research takes time to complete but just using information from basic research there are about 15-20 players who were selected in the second round in 2019 and 2020 who never signed a second contract. This data has to be available in one place because if you are a player who fits that criteria of late first round or second pick, you have to look at it to make the best decision. So if you are a late first round or second round pick, simple napkin math tells me if you can get a college deal in the $1.5M per year area for staying, thats $1.5M reported and guaranteed through the actual university NIL collective , because there is no way to find any side deals going right to the player from the booster, there is a serious financial decision to make. All the NBA lovers on this board for some reason are discounting the guaranteed part of the calculus. [/QUOTE]

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