The Big East outlook this year | Page 2 | The Boneyard

The Big East outlook this year

DogMania said:
I'm not sure I understand your point. It's now the P4 (SEC, B12, B10 and ACC) that have a lot of power, though the ACC's influence is on the decline. The other 3 are powerhouse FB conferences with the SEC and B12 looking dominant in MCB as well. The B10 has looked like hoops imposters of late even though Purdue made it to the final game. That conference has Under-performed in the tournament the past few years, though continues to get lot of bids with that trend unlikely changing. SEC is looking crazy good and well deserved supported by their OOC results this year. If my memory serves me the top of the Big12 has held its own as well.

My point is although the committee leverages the metrics highly for many of the at large selections, they have shown a P4 bias when it comes to the last 4 to 6 selections. Last season SJU clearly had the metrics to make the field, but got snubbed. My recollection has been head scratching committee decisions, selecting B10 and ACC programs over BE programs with stronger resumes and what makes us believe it will be any different considering how poorly most of the BE teams performed during the pre-conference schedule.

I hope I'm wrong. I think it will take BE teams that finish 3 through 4 need to beat up on teams below them and also beat the teams that finish 1 and 2 at least once. Creighton, which was thought to be near the top of the BE already has 5 losses and lost to Georgetown, which hasn't really beaten any top OOC teams. Other than UConn and Marquette, the rest of the BE programs couldn't seem to get any Marquee out of conference wins to my knowledge. Just seems like a perfect storm of our conference to get snubbed again. They one thing that might prevent that from happening is the ACC not doing well either.
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You don't need to have a recollection about this, there are plenty of articles about every year's selection committee.

Please walk me through how the Big East did so poorly in the non-conference schedule this year. The Big East is 18-22 against the other major conferences. Not great, not terrible. Big 12 is 21-27, Big 10 is 25-21, and the ACC is 15-50.

The Committee did not show a P4 bias last year. As I had predicted a month before Selection Sunday, Xavier, Butler and Providence played themselves out of the tournament with bad losses to Villanova and Seton Hall. No one was out to get them. If any of those teams had won ONE MORE GAME, they were probably going dancing. St. Johns should have gotten a bid, but so should have Pitt and maybe even Ohio State. Hard to argue P4 bias when we are talking about one team on the tip of the bubble that didn't get a bid when other P4 teams with very similar resumes also didn't get bids.

How does the P4 bias explain 6 bids for the MWC?
 
Lunardi today, BE 3 bids, I didnt check but I’m assuming it’s us, Marquette and St. John’s. ACC 5, B1G 10, SEC13.
 
jibsey said:
Lunardi today, BE 3 bids, I didnt check but I’m assuming it’s us, Marquette and St. John’s. ACC 5, B1G 10, SEC13.
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A 4th BE team is going to have to earn a bid by doing something above the standard, likely a 13-7 type season, Creighton may get in with a 12-8. Personally pulling for Gtown to make a run as Sorber and Epps are fun, and we need that brand to elevate the league. League health will always be at its best with Nova, Gtown, StJ and UConn humming.
 
shizzle787 said:
I did an Teamcast analysis on Torvik to determine who realistically has a shot at the NCAA tournament.

Here is what I found:

The league is realistically capped at 6 bids (assuming no bid thief).

The following schools will need to win the BET to get in:

Seton Hall
Butler
Providence
DePaul
Georgetown

The following schools will get in even if they slip up several times:

UConn
Marquette
St. John’s

The following are your bubble teams (from highest to lowest probability to get in):

Creighton
Xavier
Villanova

I set the Teamcast to include BET tournament sims (so I don’t know what they will do in the torunament), but the following win totals will be needed at the end of the regular season:

Creighton 19 wins (12-8)
Xavier 21 wins (13-7)
Villanova 20 (13-7)

I calculated all of the results together so these are possible.

Here is what we need the standings to look like to get 6 in:

1. UConn 16-4
2. Marquette 16-4
3. St. John’s 14-6
4. Xavier 13-7
5. Villanova 13-7
6. Creighton 12-8
7. Providence 7-13
8. Butler 6-14
9. Georgetown 5-15
10. DePaul 5-15
11. Seton Hall 3-17
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I think Villanova belongs in that 1st group with Seton Hall, Butler, Providence, DePaul, and Georgetown.
They have some horrible losses early to Columbia (at home, no less), @ St. Joe's, and Maryland at home.
I think they gotta run the table in the BET to get in.

Creighton would be penciled in, but losing Pop Isaacs was devastating to them.

I'd say we are a 4 bid conference, maybe 5 if someone catches fire.

The Committee screwed us last year, would not surprise me if they did it again.
 
How you guys feel about Georgetown? Can they be the 4th bid for the Big East? or will they crumble along the way?

I haven't seen a single GT game so I'm genuinely wondering what their potential is.

11-2, 2-0, NET-77, KP-67 looks really good on paper and a vast improvement from the past several years
 
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One thing to keep in mind is that injuries tend to spread out evenly throughout the year, even if they start concentrated. Creighton, Providence and Xavier have had huge injury issues to start the season.

Expect other teams to have injury issues, and when those happen, those teams will lose games.
 
ecasadoSBU said:
How you guys feel about Georgetown? Can they be the 4th bid for the Big East? or will they crumble along the way?

I haven't seen a single GT game so I'm genuinely wondering what their potential is.

11-2, 2-0, NET-77, KP-67 looks really good on paper and a vast improvement from the past several years
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I'd be okay with Cooley taking his win at Syracuse and experiencing another meh season. He's earned it.
 
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Georgetown will have a good conference year, will sneak into the conversation for bids.
 
CTBasketball said:
Georgetown will have a good conference year, will sneak into the conversation for bids.
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Their only "solid" win is the whooping they put on Creighton. Not sure I'd consider a squeaker over Seton Hall and a 4 point win over Syracuse as proof of G'town being back. But definitely seem much improved over the last few years (though that's not a high bar to clear). Next 4 games (Xavier, @Marquette, UConn, @St Johns) should tell us if G'town is a potential bubble team or not.
 
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