The Big East outlook this year

[shizzle787]

I did an Teamcast analysis on Torvik to determine who realistically has a shot at the NCAA tournament.

Here is what I found:

The league is realistically capped at 6 bids (assuming no bid thief).

The following schools will need to win the BET to get in:

Seton Hall
Butler
Providence
DePaul
Georgetown

The following schools will get in even if they slip up several times:

UConn
Marquette
St. John’s

The following are your bubble teams (from highest to lowest probability to get in):

Creighton
Xavier
Villanova

I set the Teamcast to include BET tournament sims (so I don’t know what they will do in the torunament), but the following win totals will be needed at the end of the regular season:

Creighton 19 wins (12-8)
Xavier 21 wins (13-7)
Villanova 20 (13-7)

I calculated all of the results together so these are possible.

Here is what we need the standings to look like to get 6 in:

1. UConn 16-4
2. Marquette 16-4
3. St. John’s 14-6
4. Xavier 13-7
5. Villanova 13-7
6. Creighton 12-8
7. Providence 7-13
8. Butler 6-14
9. Georgetown 5-15
10. DePaul 5-15
11. Seton Hall 3-17

 

[shizzle787]

I do think 5 is much more realistic so here is what we would want the standings to look like in that scenario:

1. UConn 17-3
2. Marquette 16-4
3. St. John’s 14-6
4. Xavier 13-7
5. Creighton 13-7
6. Villanova 10-10
7. Providence 8-12
8. Butler 6-14
9. Georgetown 5-15
10. DePaul 5-15
11. Seton Hall 3-17

 

[shizzle787]

For the bubble teams to get in, they need to win the following games:

Seton Hall sweep
Teams 7-11 at home

That is 7 wins. From there, they need to pick up 5-6 more.

 

[Dibbie]

If the BE was just a 3 bid league last year, probably just 2 this year, unless St Johns has a win vs us and Marquette

 

[uconngb]

If the BE was just a 3 bid league last year, probably just 2 this year, unless St Johns has a win vs us and Marquette

Unfortunately I think this is reality with the poor pre conference performance

 

[RuffRuff]

3.5 - still think there is room for a 4th team to figure it out, get hot and sneak a bid. If anything I think the 3 bid stinkaroo by the committee last year when that leagues best team dominated the field might get a sympathy bid as long as they are within reason. Take it from the Mountain West for gods sake, that league was gifted so many last year only to eat sh&t in the dance. Just not sure who that team is out of the BE top 3. Xavier did look pretty darn good last night.

 

[NJHusky]

We ain’t getting 5….and certainly ain’t getting 6

 

[auror]

12-8 and a 1-1 semi trip in BET gets Georgetown right around the cutline 50/50 shot according to Torvik teamcast (sweeping home court and only winning at DePaul and Seton Hall puts them in the field, winning 2/3 at home over UConn/Marquette/St. John's puts them literally at the cutline), 13-7 gets them in pretty assuredly.

Considering those are the records you're forecasting for those other teams to have in the scenario where the BE gets 5/6 teams, I'd put them in the bubble team category (albeit least likely since their predictive metrics are worse). Their resume metrics are a fair bit better than Xavier, Villanova, or Creighton's right now. They have only 1 marginally bad explainable loss (Sorber was highly sick in the Notre Dame game), a 9-2 record, and a mostly blank slate, so can't really write them off as needing to win the BET yet.

 

[DogMania]

I didn't think the BE nonconference record was all that good this season. With the P4 bias strongly at play, we'll likely get 2 to 3 teams, 4 at most.

Hard for the BE teams to build up the resume unless some top tier teams not named UConn or Marquette build a solid conference record and beat UConn and/or Marquette.

 

[jibsey]

Based on what happened in the Xavier game I expect many very close games and more than 3-4 losses in the BE and that’s no reflection on how the post season will go. These league games are wars.

 

[shizzle787]

I didn't think the BE nonconference record was all that good this season. With the P4 bias strongly at play, we'll likely get 2 to 3 teams, 4 at most.

Hard for the BE teams to build up the resume unless some top tier teams not named UConn or Marquette build a solid conference record and beat UConn and/or Marquette.

UConn, St. John’s, and Marquette are solidly in right now. The question is can we add a 4th and/or 5th.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I didn't think the BE nonconference record was all that good this season. With the P4 bias strongly at play, we'll likely get 2 to 3 teams, 4 at most.

Hard for the BE teams to build up the resume unless some top tier teams not named UConn or Marquette build a solid conference record and beat UConn and/or Marquette.

There are a lot of new variables in tournament selection this year. There is one less major conference, there is one major conference that is unprecedentedly good (SEC) and one major conference that is unprecedentedly bad (ACC). I can not recall where there was this kind of extreme performance by two leagues in the same season.

The MWC will also not be a 6 bid league again.

Someone has to get the bids, and it seems like there will be more available for borderline resumes than there were last year. I do feel pretty confident that your 2 bid prediction is not going to age well.
.

 

[willie99]

As of his latest Bracketology, Lunardi has 5 teams in.

Marquette
UConn
St John's
PC
Creighton

FWIW

Obviously 5 is entirely possible. It's only 12/20, I really don't pay much attention to this stuff yet but I want to commend @shizzle787 for his work and dedication. An interesting read

At least 10 teams will play their way in and 10 more teams will play their way out by Selection Sunday. They'll also be bid stealers come March

We're good, enjoy the ride people. I'm in no hurry to get there

 

[willie99]

The B10 and SEC will set new tournament records for bids, based on pure volume alone. But the PAC10 is going to get shut out and the MWC will never get 6 bids again (unless they're composed of every team west of the Mississippi that's not in one of the 4 mega conferences)

SEC
B10
B12
Big East
ACC
USA
West of the Mississippi
Atlantic 10

1 bid conferences

 

[BFieldHusky]

As of his latest Bracketology, Lunardi has 5 teams in.

Marquette
UConn
St John's
PC
Creighton

FWIW

Obviously 5 is entirely possible. It's only 12/20, I really don't pay much attention to this stuff yet but I want to commend @shizzle787 for his work and dedication. An interesting read

At least 10 teams will play their way in and 10 more teams will play their way out by Selection Sunday. They'll also be bid stealers come March

We're good, enjoy the ride people. I'm in no hurry to get there

He has PC in because at the time he posted his most recent Bracketology, Providence was leading the BE with its win @ DePaul. Providence isn't even close to the bubble.

 

[Tenspro2002]

UConn and Marquette are locks barring the unforeseen.

St. John's probably in good shape unless they stumble to like 11-9 in conference.

Gonna be hard for anyone else. My fear is we end up with a gaggle of like 9-11 to 11-9 teams and none of them make it. Creighton is going to struggle and that's a big hit for the conference. Ditto Xavier without Freemantle (Wednesday night's performance will never be repeated again). I think Neptune finds a way to screw it up for Nova.

I'm actually higher on Georgetown than most. I think they might actually have something this year. Not a joke anymore. But it might take 14 wins including the BET.

 

[cellocgg]

BE is likely getting 3 teams in, possibly even 2. Id say the league looks worse than last year and I'm not sure why everyone is surprised. "An underfunded conference full of small Catholic schools is underperforming? I can't fathom why!" Compare what the A10 used to be like vs now as that will look familiar soon.

UConn B12/ACC discussion really can't come any sooner. This school deserves so much better

 

[AllHusky]

Thanks Shizz, fascinating. Don't know whether to be optimistic or pessimistic. I guess I'll leave the prognosticating to you and root for our Huskies!!

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I did an Teamcast analysis on Torvik to determine who realistically has a shot at the NCAA tournament.

Here is what I found:

The league is realistically capped at 6 bids (assuming no bid thief).

The following schools will need to win the BET to get in:

Seton Hall
Butler
Providence
DePaul
Georgetown

The following schools will get in even if they slip up several times:

UConn
Marquette
St. John’s

The following are your bubble teams (from highest to lowest probability to get in):

Creighton
Xavier
Villanova

I set the Teamcast to include BET tournament sims (so I don’t know what they will do in the torunament), but the following win totals will be needed at the end of the regular season:

Creighton 19 wins (12-8)
Xavier 21 wins (13-7)
Villanova 20 (13-7)

I calculated all of the results together so these are possible.

Here is what we need the standings to look like to get 6 in:

1. UConn 16-4
2. Marquette 16-4
3. St. John’s 14-6
4. Xavier 13-7
5. Villanova 13-7
6. Creighton 12-8
7. Providence 7-13
8. Butler 6-14
9. Georgetown 5-15
10. DePaul 5-15
11. Seton Hall 3-17

Nice work.

A good rule of thumb historically for the majors is, after the non-conference schedule is over, how many of the schools would likely get bids or at least be on the bubble with a .500 conference record? That is a good starting point. Right now, the Big East has 5 teams. Ironically, Depaul (with a win over Northwestern this weekend) and Georgetown would both be in the mix with a .500 Big East record. Everyone else has to do better than .500 to be seriously considered.

I know that the Big East Haters on this board keep bringing up last year's snubs of SHU and St. Johns. SHU's OOC was really bad last season. SJU was better OOC, but was only 2 games above .500 in league play, and was one of the first 4 out in a weird tournament field (MWC getting 6 bids, several upsets in conference tournaments). Pitt, Oklahoma and Ohio State all had very similar resumes to St. Johns, and also did not get into the dance.

Look at the ACC. Maybe 4 schools out of 18 would be in the mix with a .500 conference record. Obviously, roughly half of the league will be at or above .500, but there are only maybe 5 or 6 teams out of 18 that even have a good shot with 12-8 in conference.

 

[DogMania]

There are a lot of new variables in tournament selection this year. There is one less major conference, there is one major conference that is unprecedentedly good (SEC) and one major conference that is unprecedentedly bad (ACC). I can not recall where there was this kind of extreme performance by two leagues in the same season.

The MWC will also not be a 6 bid league again.

Someone has to get the bids, and it seems like there will be more available for borderline resumes than there were last year. I do feel pretty confident that your 2 bid prediction is not going to age well.

I forgot the ACC has had a disastrous nonconference outcome. Though the SEC has been impressive. It will be interesting to see what the committee will do based on what they did to the Big East last year. What makes us think they'll do the anything different since much of the conference seems worse?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I forgot the ACC has had a disastrous nonconference outcome. Though the SEC has been impressive. It will be interesting to see what the committee will do based on what they did to the Big East last year. What makes us think they'll do the anything different since much of the conference seems worse?

I made the following post on February 13, 2024:

Butler, Xavier, St. Johns, Providence, Seton Hall and Villanova are working on the exact sequence of game outcomes that will make the 2023-2024 Big East the best conference in history to only get 3 bids to the NCAA tournament.

Last year was a weird year for the Big East. The strongest bubble candidates, St. Johns, Xavier, Butler and Providence, seemed to lose games in exactly the wrong combination, while Seton Hall and Villanova over-performed their weak OOC but they were long shots for bids no matter what they did. If near the end of last season, Villanova lost to PC and Butler, and Seton Hall lost to Xavier and St. Johns, The Big East would have been a 5 bid league with an outside shot at 7. Even without that, I would have given St. Johns a bid if I was the Committee, but it is hard to argue that there was some widespread conspiracy against the league. St. Johns, Xavier, Butler and Providence all looked on their way to bids in early February, and all four teams blew it. It's not the Committee's fault.

 

[REB1094]

On the same page!

Tier 1 - Will be in unless they have a catastrophic meltdown

• UConn. Self explanatory
• Marquette. Self explanatory

Tier 2 - Will be in even with a slip or two

• St Johns. #11 Kenpom and #22 NET, but not Top 25 and their resume is currently no good wins (0-2 Q1 & 0-0 Q2) but no bad losses (9-0 Q3 & Q4), so I won't call them a lock

Tier 3 - Need big wins and can't lose to Seton Hall. For what it's worth I think only a max of 1 of these teams will make it due to injuries and/or Kyle Neptune

• Villanova. 2 Q3 losses, and they are coached by Kyle Neptune so they're bound to drop a game against the bottom of the conference
• Xavier. Limited ceiling with the Freemantle injury which sucks, but their guards will win them some games. A few wins against the top of the BE and they can play themselves onto the bubble
• Creighton. Win against Kansas is huge. The loss against GTown is actually almost Q1 (?!?!), but a 20+ point loss to the Hoyas makes me lose a lot of faith in this team

Tier 4 - Maybe if they're lucky?

• Providence. They don't look like a tournament team but they will get better at Bryce Hopkins gets back into the swing of things. Wouldn't be surprised if they steal a few big wins at the AMP

Tier 5 - Maybe next year

• Butler. Solid win vs Mississippi St, but really bad loss to Austin Peay..anybody know how common it is for teams to get an at large bid with a Q4 loss?
• Georgetown. The win against Creighton makes me want to shift them up a tier or two, but without 2 wins against MU/UConn then idk. Their resume right now isn't horrible?
• DePaul. They're going to win the BET so it doesn't matter, but no good wins
• Seton Hall. One of the worst P5 teams in the country

 

[DogMania]

I hope we get at least 4 bids. Although NIL has become a huge factor with recruiting, if the Big East gets three or less tournament bids, the perception that getting to play in the NCAA tournament is low by going to a Big East program could be used as a counter recruiting measure. Although that won't affect UConn's recruiting, it could weaken our conference strength of schedule.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I hope we get at least 4 bids. Although NIL has become a huge factor with recruiting, if the Big East gets three or less tournament bids, the perception that getting to play in the NCAA tournament is low by going to a Big East program could be used as a counter recruiting measure. Although that won't affect UConn's recruiting, it could weaken our conference strength of schedule.

One of two things are likely to happen: The P2 become dominant, in which case the Big 12, ACC and Big East are all in the same sinking ship. Or the P2 does not become dominant, in which case the Big 12, ACC and Big East will all be fine.