Texas is in a death spiral

[pap49cba]

Have lost 4 of last 5 games

 

[alexrgct]

Texas and Tennessee's coaching situations will be really fascinating to watch. Both will spend for a new coach, both will probably be inclined to make a splash hire of sorts. A lot of ADs better be willing to pony up some more dough or they could lose their coach.

In 2007, Texas's hiring of GG reset the entire market for WBB coaches. Geno and Pat made big bucks, but Texas paid GG seven figures, which caused Sherri's salary to be doubled, Kim's to go up to seven figures as well, etc. Texas has no problem spending resetting the market again, and neither will Tennessee. Not only will they get their coach, but they'll hurt less fiscally solvent athletic departments in the process. Just watch.

 

[Wbbfan1]

It will be expensive to buy out Gail remaining contract. I don't see Texas doing it this year. If there's not remarkable improvement next year, Gail will be gone. Texas has 8 games remaining. If they go 2-6 in these eight games, they'll have a 15-15 record, won't make the tournament and possibly not even the WNIT. Then the Texas AD could pull the trigger and replace Gail.

 

[alexrgct]

It will be expensive to buy out Gail remaining contract. I don't see Texas doing it this year. If there's not remarkable improvement next year, Gail will be gone. Texas has 8 games remaining. If they go 2-6 in these eight games, they'll have a 15-15 record, won't make the tournament and possibly not even the WNIT. Then the Texas AD could pull the trigger and replace Gail.

If Texas waits, it won't be about money. She has $2 million owed her, and I wouldn't be surprised if there's a buyout that's less than that. At any rate, DeLoss Dodds's wife probably finds two mill in his pants pockets every time she does the laundry. Texas has a record of doing right by coaches and giving them every opportunity to get it done, but GG looks to have lost this team completely. Imani Stafford is good, but she's not going to just come in and take over the game. I see little reason to wait at this point.

 

[speedoo]

GG got nothing out of Gayle and Reed in the loss at Iowa State, both had very limited minutes. Gayle fouled out is Reed injured again?

 

[UcMiami]

I don't really expect any major recalibration on WCBB coaching compensation. In football, the revenue stream keeps growing at an enormous rate so institutions and their ADs can justify continued inflation in the coaching salaries. Same with MCBB, but the revenue stream is just not there in the same way for the WCBB programs. Pat and Geno have the championships and the revenue to justify where they are (though it is still questioned by some.) Sherri and Kim and Muffet and Tara also have had the kind of continued success that justifies. I don't think anybody would argue that Texas overpaid for the results they have received.
I would be surprised if Texas increased their compensation for their next coach, and I think it would be a hard sell for TN to pay whoever they bring in next more than they pay Pat in her last year of coaching, whenever that is and certainly they would not pay that coach a significant increase. Same will be true for Geno's successor when he leaves.
I also don't think the 'market' for WCBB coaches is that strong that they can demand huge increases. Gail's compensation was comparable to what Geno and Pat were already receiving, and what her hire did, was to bring more of the top coaches up to that level, not create an escallating wage scale.
The only coaches that could probably command a huge step up are those I listed, should someone desperately want to pry them away from their current program. All of them 'own' their programs and have built them to their current heights. The one exception that Baylor fans sometimes worry about is Kim's connections to LSU, but I just don't see that happening.

 

[alexrgct]

I don't really expect any major recalibration on WCBB coaching compensation. In football, the revenue stream keeps growing at an enormous rate so institutions and their ADs can justify continued inflation in the coaching salaries. Same with MCBB, but the revenue stream is just not there in the same way for the WCBB programs. Pat and Geno have the championships and the revenue to justify where they are (though it is still questioned by some.) Sherri and Kim and Muffet and Tara also have had the kind of continued success that justifies. I don't think anybody would argue that Texas overpaid for the results they have received.
I would be surprised if Texas increased their compensation for their next coach, and I think it would be a hard sell for TN to pay whoever they bring in next more than they pay Pat in her last year of coaching, whenever that is and certainly they would not pay that coach a significant increase. Same will be true for Geno's successor when he leaves.
I also don't think the 'market' for WCBB coaches is that strong that they can demand huge increases. Gail's compensation was comparable to what Geno and Pat were already receiving, and what her hire did, was to bring more of the top coaches up to that level, not create an escallating wage scale.
The only coaches that could probably command a huge step up are those I listed, should someone desperately want to pry them away from their current program. All of them 'own' their programs and have built them to their current heights. The one exception that Baylor fans sometimes worry about is Kim's connections to LSU, but I just don't see that happening.

Sorry, but you're way off base here.

1. Geno and Pat were the unquestioned king and queen of WBB. No one expected to make close to what they were earning. They did not set the market.
2. Since Texas hired GG, Kim got a raise to over seven figures, Sherri's salary DOUBLED, Gary's salary DOUBLED, Nikki Caldwell's salary tripled from UCLA when she made a jump to LSU, Jeff Waltz got major $$$ at Lousiville, etc. Oh, and Geno and Pat have gotten big raises too. GG's salary absolutely set off a chain of events where a large number of coaches are getting money that Pat and Geno used to get for results that aren't close to what Geno and Pat had accomplished. If that's not changing the market, I don't know what is.
3. Prepare to be surprised, then. Texas loves making splashes, and they don't care about spending an extra 500K-1M to make it happen. I actually think a better move for them would be to go after an up-and-coming coach rather than try for another splash hire, but believe me, if they do that and s/he's successful, they'll very quickly bump that salary way up. They have the money, they have pressure from ESPN to put out a quality product for the Longhorn Network, and they want to demonstrate a committment to women's sports. It doesn't matter what the incoming revenue is because they make an obscene amount of money through other channels.
4. Of course Tennessee isn't going to pay a new coach more than Pat makes. Again, that's irrelevant. Pat and Geno don't set the market. But paying an up-and-coming coach or a hot name even in the neighborhood of what Pat makes, even within spitting distance, is going to have ripple effects. Think back to 2007. Kim could say, "Well if GG is worth $1M to Texas, I should be worth at least that much to Baylor." Baylor, despite not being anywhere as rich as Texas, agreed. No one (other than maybe Geno) would have any right to say, "Well if Pat's making almost $2M, so should I." But if Nikki Caldwell is making 1.5M? There are about 10-15 coaches who should be calling their ADs, telling them they deserve more money, and then that means up and coming assistants like Shea will probably get way more money than they would 10 years ago for their first HC gig.
5. This is EXACTLY why it is a big no-no in corporate America for people to talk about their salaries. Imagine if you knew what all of your co-workers made. There are always people who make more than you do but shouldn't, and if you knew just how much they made, it would create all kinds of pressure on management to increase salaries across the board. It'd be a nightmare. Well, WBB coaching salaries are already in danger of going there, and now two very wealthy athletic departments are likely to have jobs open. It is going to accelerate the process even more, whether it makes sense from an incoming revenue standpoint or not.

 

[speedoo]

Sorry, but you're way off base here.

1. Geno and Pat were the unquestioned king and queen of WBB. No one expected to make close to what they were earning. They did not set the market.
2. Since Texas hired GG, Kim got a raise to over seven figures, Sherri's salary DOUBLED, Gary's salary DOUBLED, Nikki Caldwell's salary tripled from UCLA when she made a jump to LSU, Jeff Waltz got major $$$ at Lousiville, etc. Oh, and Geno and Pat have gotten big raises too. GG's salary absolutely set off a chain of events where a large number of coaches are getting money that Pat and Geno used to get for results that aren't close to what Geno and Pat had accomplished. If that's not changing the market, I don't know what is.
3. Prepare to be surprised, then. Texas loves making splashes, and they don't care about spending an extra 500K-1M to make it happen. I actually think a better move for them would be to go after an up-and-coming coach rather than try for another splash hire, but believe me, if they do that and s/he's successful, they'll very quickly bump that salary way up. They have the money, they have pressure from ESPN to put out a quality product for the Longhorn Network, and they want to demonstrate a committment to women's sports. It doesn't matter what the incoming revenue is because they make an obscene amount of money through other channels.
4. Of course Tennessee isn't going to pay a new coach more than Pat makes. Again, that's irrelevant. Pat and Geno don't set the market. But paying an up-and-coming coach or a hot name even in the neighborhood of what Pat makes, even within spitting distance, is going to have ripple effects. Think back to 2007. Kim could say, "Well if GG is worth $1M to Texas, I should be worth at least that much to Baylor." Baylor, despite not being anywhere as rich as Texas, agreed. No one (other than maybe Geno) would have any right to say, "Well if Pat's making almost $2M, so should I." But if Nikki Caldwell is making 1.5M? There are about 10-15 coaches who should be calling their ADs, telling them they deserve more money, and then that means up and coming assistants like Shea will probably get way more money than they would 10 years ago for their first HC gig.
5. This is EXACTLY why it is a big no-no in corporate America for people to talk about their salaries. Imagine if you knew what all of your co-workers made. There are always people who make more than you do but shouldn't, and if you knew just how much they made, it would create all kinds of pressure on management to increase salaries across the board. It'd be a nightmare. Well, WBB coaching salaries are already in danger of going there, and now two very wealthy athletic departments are likely to have jobs open. It is going to accelerate the process even more, whether it makes sense from an incoming revenue standpoint or not.

The problem with all that is that GG has failed, so I don't think she can continue as a "market setter". Caldwell is likely to end up the same way, she never accomplished enough to justify LSU paying her that much. So schools in the future will be resistant to the kind of escalation you described for Coale, Mulkey, etc. Schools will set a harder line on pay, even if Texas overpays for GG's successor.

The other problem is that GG was a unique hire for Texas... she had accomplished a lot at Duke and she was available, so Texas grabbed her. Maybe in retrospect the Texas admin. now looks back and wishes they had structured her contract differently with more incentives and less guaranteed salary. Had they done so GG might have made different decisions in terms of her assistants which may have resulted in more successful recruiting in state.

There really are no GG's available at the moment for Texas or Tennessee to hire... they both will have to take a different route. They will have to either a) pay a Walz or a similar up and comer enough to lure them away from the current situations they enjoy or b) go with a relative unknown and take a bit of a ga. One or both of them might have "b" above in their back pocket and go after say Walz but with a hard not to be exceeded number for pay in mind. If they can't get Walz or a similar coach for that number, they go to Plan "b".

Both Texas and Tennessee know they have to hire someone who has a good chance to succeed... that is the most important factor, what that person is paid is really less important but the person has have appropriate incentives. I would argue that neither GG or Caldwell have appropriate incentives, and both Texas and Tennessee will not make that mistake this time around.

 

[UcMiami]

Alex - I absolutely agree that the range of coaches getting the top money has expanded significantly, and without Pat/Geno like success - but the number has not significantly changed from what that big splash contract for GG set it at. I don't follow the coaching salaries that closely, but after GG, their hasn't been another big splash/new ballgame kind of salary for a WCBB coach - the quality of the coaches and number of them commanding that top money has increased but the top hasn't jumped again.
And I agree that Texas has the mentality of making big splashes, and I could see them calling Kim or Geno and offering them double their current salary just to make that splash, but I don't see either of those coaches accepting, and with very few exceptions, I don't see them offering that kind of money (2-3M) to anyone else. - especially considering their previous fail.

 

[HuskyNan]

Alex - I absolutely agree that the range of coaches getting the top money has expanded significantly, and without Pat/Geno like success - but the number has not significantly changed from what that big splash contract for GG set it at. I don't follow the coaching salaries that closely, but after GG, their hasn't been another big splash/new ballgame kind of salary for a WCBB coach - the quality of the coaches and number of them commanding that top money has increased but the top hasn't jumped again.

CViv at Rutgers makes $1.5 million after all the xtras are added to her $550,000 base salary. Her base is larger than both Geno (350K) and Pat's (450K). Geno's total compensation is $1.64 million and Pat's is $1.8 million.

 

[alexrgct]

The problem with all that is that GG has failed, so I don't think she can continue as a "market setter".
Caldwell is likely to end up the same way, she never accomplished enough to justify LSU paying her that much. So schools in the future will be resistant to the kind of escalation you described for Coale, Mulkey, etc. Schools will set a harder line on pay, even if Texas overpays for GG's successor.

The other problem is that GG was a unique hire for Texas... she had accomplished a lot at Duke and she was available, so Texas grabbed her. Maybe in retrospect the Texas admin. now looks back and wishes they had structured her contract differently with more incentives and less guaranteed salary. Had they done so GG might have made different decisions in terms of her assistants which may have resulted in more successful recruiting in state.

There really are no GG's available at the moment for Texas or Tennessee to hire... they both will have to take a different route. They will have to either a) pay a Walz or a similar up and comer enough to lure them away from the current situations they enjoy or b) go with a relative unknown and take a bit of a ga. One or both of them might have "b" above in their back pocket and go after say Walz but with a hard not to be exceeded number for pay in mind. If they can't get Walz or a similar coach for that number, they go to Plan "b".

Both Texas and Tennessee know they have to hire someone who has a good chance to succeed... that is the most important factor, what that person is paid is really less important but the person has have appropriate incentives. I would argue that neither GG or Caldwell have appropriate incentives, and both Texas and Tennessee will not make that mistake this time around.

I think you and UCMiami are saying in many respects overlapping this in the post I'm quoting and Miami's post below yours.

I think GG had leeway and budget to run the program how she wanted to. She just failed. Some of it isn't her fault, some of it is, but at this point, she's damaged goods, certainly at Texas and possibly elsewhere. I don't think this is at all what she wanted, even if she's gotten $5 million thus far out the deal. I don't think she cashed in and then lacked the proper incentive to succeed. It just wasn't the right fit for her.

In any case, you're right: there is no one with GG's resume at Duke on the market (that we know of anyway). And to UCMiami's point, I don't think they're likely to dislodge someone like Muffet form her extremely comfortable position. From my perspective, that makes things even more interesting. Let's say both Texas and Tennessee do have jobs open at the end of this season (may not happen for either). Well, maybe Texas talks itself into being absolutely certain Jeff Waltz is the answer and Tennessee has so much pressure to hire someone from the LV family that they zero in on Caldwell. Caldwell and Waltz, despite being nowhere near as accomplished as GG, are making pretty close to what GG makes at Texas (they're both in the very high six figures). So they give them a financial inducement to come becase they can afford it, just trying to do right by their programs. The problem now is that those two are making serious money with resumes that a lot of coaches can exceed, match, or come close to matching, and with everyone knowing everyone else's salary, it re-anchors their expectations.

Pat and Geno couldn't be true market setters because no one else could put their resume up to theirs. GG? A number of coaches could. When we start getting down to Walz and Caldwell, even more can. That's what creates turmoil. And it's a big problem for WBB because more and more people looking for a reason to bash the sport (and even some friends of the sport) are going to be asking, "Why are you paying all this money for someone to coach a sport that doesn't make you any money?" For Texas, the answer is "Because we can." For other schools, the answer becomes "Because we have to." For still others, it will be some combination of "We can, we have to, and/or we think it's of enough social importance to justify the investment." In any case, competitive responses and public discourse stand to get very interesting.

 

[pinotbear]

I just want to say that I'm enjoying this thread. Coaching salaries/salary market is something I know almost nothing about, and this has been a well-reasoned, civil discourse. I've learned a fair bit reading it. Now, if we could interject some punning, movie references, double-entendres, and bear homage, it'd be perfect!

 

[UcMiami]

Nan - thanks for posting those numbers - I was too lazy to look for them, but knew the ball park.
Alex - I guess I now understand where we differ in our outlook. I classify at least Jeff in the same ballpark with GG when she left Duke - been to the big dance, but came home empty. So if he was to get a top salary offer from TX I don't see that changing the scale, but just as a continuation of status quo. And with either Caldwell or Harper or Mitchell for TN - that would be a 'family' hire and would justify their less stellar resume (compared to Jeff.)
There are a few institutions where either program success or cash flow within athletics can justify big contracts in WCBB, and for the rest, I just don't think the ADs are under enough pressure to compete in a salary war. Definitely there is a little 'gamesmanship' within conferences among ADs and I think Sherri and Kim were able to play that card with the GG hire, but I would be surprised to see it cropping up again to the same degree.
I think there are a few exceptional coaches out there that could get big raises not fully justified by their current successes - Dawn at SC, Bollant at GB, Jen at Hartford, to name three - but they have proven to be very good coaches working with limited resources,talent, recruiting appeal, so I don't think people would be surprised with their jump up the coaching scale. (Dawn already made a pretty big jump with her move to SC.)

 

[alexrgct]

Gotcha, UCMiami. I see GG and JW as at very dfferent stages. Jeff took over at Louisville and got the Cards to the championship game very quickly, so in that sense, he got Louisville as far as Coach G ever got Duke (though Duke lost in OT in the big game to finish 2-2 against a Maryland team it was playing for the fourth time, whereas Lousiville got blown out for the third time that season by UConn). But in terms of sustained success over time, multiple F4 appearences, consistently being the best or second-best team in the conference, consecutive seasons of making at least the S16 or winning 30 games, he still has a long way to go to match GG's tenure at Duke. I think he's an excellent coach and recruiter and may well be able to get Louisville (or someone else) there, but he still has to do it.

 

[UcMiami]

Alex - the other consideration with Jeff re conference is that he came into one that had Uconn and ND and Rutgers already established as 'powerhouses' in WCBB. I think Gail had softer competition in the ACC (even given UNC and Maryland.) In the FF appearance, they had a very good run to that title game, but no one was going to give Uconn a game that year so I don't hold the final score against him. I agree that GG had longer and better NCAA success but she also had longer to build it than Jeff has had, and she never got any further than he did.

 

[ThisJustIn]

I think the trouble with Nikki, for instance, is how much hopping can she do (and, who knows WHAT she can do what with her win over KY tonight) at LSU.

I'm still trying to think of the logic behind her moving to the SEC if the TN job was her goal. I don't see it. I understand loyalty and all that -- but I also wonder if some alum think, "Not for me, thankyouverymuch. Shoes too big. Shadow too dark. Expectations impossible." It's sort of why I believe they need to go outside of the orange family. (I feel the same about UConn.)

I don't know if I'd consider Duke's rise v. Louisville's rise harder or easier... Granted, Louisville and Jeff caught lightening in a bottle, and since then, have been snake bit by injuries and exits. So, to my mind, I'm still waiting on Jeff's sustainability.

Clearly the Texas gig is less fraught with emotion and attention and sturm and drang. I mentioned before that I thought Aston's sudden resignation from the 49'ers for "family reasons" and then equally sudden hiring as coach for North Texas was a way for her to take a good record and reestablish her Texas links. NT is doing all right in year one under her -- I think folks would rather see a year two before she's considered as a possible "return home to help restore glory" candidate.

Wonder if UTEP and/or Green Bay coaches would be interested....