Ten best programs in the country right now? | The Boneyard

Ten best programs in the country right now?

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With two championships in four years, three final fours out of the last six, four titles in sixteen years, a young head coach who is recruiting well, and a brand new practice facility, I think most of us can agree that UConn is the best program in the country. If you believe there is an other program that is superior, that's fine. Otherwise, this thread is more about sorting out programs 2-10. Which program poses the biggest threat to the throne? How far has Duke fallen, if at all? Is Syracuse a top ten program? Interested to hear what people think.
 

Yankees32123

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Kentucky is up there with us. As much as I hate to say it, and I think we have the slight edge, Kentucky has been in the Final Four 3 out of the last 4 years, with one championship, and has established one of the most dominating recruiting systems in the history of college basketball. As much as I cant stand the squid and what he is doing to college basketball, his system seems to be working. Though we are beating them in the tourney (which gives us the edge) they are still making deep runs year in and year out, while Duke and Kansas are using the same recruiting system and not faring well in the tourney. UConn and Kentucky are #1 and #2 as far as current programs go, and there is not a close 3rd. Maybe Michigan State with all of their Final Four appearances. The rest of the top 10 gets filled out with Duke (2010 championship and recruiting success), Kansas, Arizona, Wichita State, Florida, Louisville, and then maybe Syracuse. You can argue over the order of the last 8.
 
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Earlier this year I posted on the best programs based on a measurement very similar to that used by the NCAA to dole out tournament cash to the respective conferences, namely the number of games a team plays in the tournament. Under my scoring a team is awarded 1 point for making the tournament, 2 points for making it to the second round, 3 points for making the Sweet Sixteen, 4 points for making the Elite Eight, 5 points for making the Final Four, 6 points for making the championship game, and 7 points for winning the championship. This scoring rewards consistency (which hurts UConn which, in addition to the championships and Final Four has missed the tournament entirely twice and gone out in the first round once) more than the spectacular.

If measuring over the last four years (when UConn won twice) the top ten teams are (points are in parens):
1. Kentucky (18)
2. Florida (17)
3. Louisville (16)
4T. UConn & Kansas (15)
6. Syracuse (13)
7. North Carolina (12)
8T. Michigan State & Arizona (11)
10. Duke (9)

If measuring over that last six years (when UConn went to its 3rd Final Four) the top ten are:
1T. Kentucky & Michigan State
3. Louisville (21)
4T. UConn & Kansas (20)
6T. Duke, North Carolina & Syracuse (19)
9. Florida (18)
10. Arizona (14)
 

OkaForPrez

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Earlier this year I posted on the best programs based on a measurement very similar to that used by the NCAA to dole out tournament cash to the respective conferences, namely the number of games a team plays in the tournament. Under my scoring a team is awarded 1 point for making the tournament, 2 points for making it to the second round, 3 points for making the Sweet Sixteen, 4 points for making the Elite Eight, 5 points for making the Final Four, 6 points for making the championship game, and 7 points for winning the championship. This scoring rewards consistency (which hurts UConn which, in addition to the championships and Final Four has missed the tournament entirely twice and gone out in the first round once) more than the spectacular.

If measuring over the last four years (when UConn won twice) the top ten teams are (points are in parens):
1. Kentucky (18)
2. Florida (17)
3. Louisville (16)
4T. UConn & Kansas (15)
6. Syracuse (13)
7. North Carolina (12)
8T. Michigan State & Arizona (11)
10. Duke (9)

If measuring over that last six years (when UConn went to its 3rd Final Four) the top ten are:
1T. Kentucky & Michigan State
3. Louisville (21)
4T. UConn & Kansas (20)
6T. Duke, North Carolina & Syracuse (19)
9. Florida (18)
10. Arizona (14)
I don't think you are rewarding deep post season runs enough, if you still have your workbook try a Fibonacci scoring system (1,2,3,5,8,13,21) and post the results.
 
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I don't think you are rewarding deep post season runs enough, if you still have your workbook try a Fibonacci scoring system (1,2,3,5,8,13,21) and post the results.

I think you're exactly right. In his current scoring system 2 final 4 appearances are worth more than winning a championship. I certainly wouldn't trade last seasons trophy for a couple of FF appearances and bow outs. I have a feeling nobody else would either. Any Butler fans out there to help test my theory?
 
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For me, the no brainers are UK, Kansas, UCONN, Duke, Florida, Louisville and Arizona. Michigan State, Cuse, UNC round up the top 10 but I have Michigan knocking on the door.
 
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I don't think you are rewarding deep post season runs enough, if you still have your workbook try a Fibonacci scoring system (1,2,3,5,8,13,21) and post the results.
Excellent suggestion! Here are the results using your scoring method.

If measuring over the last four years (when UConn won twice) the top ten teams are (points are in parens):
1. UConn (43)
2. Kentucky (42)
3. Louisville (33)
4T. Kansas & Florida (23)
6. Syracuse (17)
7. North Carolina (14)
8. Arizona (13)
9. Michigan State (12)
10. Duke (10)

If measuring over that last six years (when UConn went to its 3rd Final Four) the top ten are:
1. UConn (51)
2. Kentucky (47)
3. Louisville (39)
4. North Carolina (35)
5. Duke (34)
6. Michigan State (33)
7. Kansas (28)
8. Florida (24)
9. Syracuse (23)
10. Arizona (16)
 
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Correction to my Fibonacci list. The teams I was considering for top programs went back over 30 years and didn't include Butler. Butler would have been the 7th best over 4 years with 15 points and 7th best over the last 6 years with 29 points. Based on those numbers Butler should be considered a top ten program. Duke would drop out if considering last 4 years and Arizona if considering last 6 years.
 

intlzncster

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Correction to my Fibonacci list. The teams I was considering for top programs went back over 30 years and didn't include Butler. Butler would have been the 7th best over 4 years with 15 points and 7th best over the last 6 years with 29 points. Based on those numbers Butler should be considered a top ten program. Duke would drop out if considering last 4 years and Arizona if considering last 6 years.

If they still had Brad Stevens, they might have had a shot. But not now.

I like the adjustment in scoring. You should always reward the 'spectacular' over the consistent 'marginally successful'.
 

intlzncster

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Can't believe the Orange spew ranks so high. The way I have them situated in my head does not jibe with reality. Unfortunate.
 
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Just for the sake of having a single Top Ten list, I've combined my 4-year and 6-year lists by taking a simple average of the two. This becomes my Top Ten.

1. UConn (47)
2. Kentucky (44.5)
3. Louisville (36)
4. Kansas (25.5)
5. North Carolina (24.5)
6. Florida (23.5)
7. Michigan State (22.5)
8T. Butler & Duke (22)
10. Syracuse (20)

Just for fun, using these top programs, the top conference is easily the ACC with 4 teams and 102.5 total points. How the conferences stack up (teams/points in parens):
1. ACC (4/102.5)
2. Non P5 (2/69)
3. SEC (2/68)
4. B12 (1/25.5)
5. B10 (1/22.5)
6. Pac (0/0)
 

intlzncster

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Just for the sake of having a single Top Ten list, I've combined my 4-year and 6-year lists by taking a simple average of the two. This becomes my Top Ten.

1. UConn (47)
2. Kentucky (44.5)
3. Louisville (36)
4. Kansas (25.5)
5. North Carolina (24.5)
6. Florida (23.5)
7. Michigan State (22.5)
8T. Butler & Duke (22)
10. Syracuse (20)

That looks like the most accurate representation as well. Butler likely won't be in there going forward without Brad Stevens, but the results were what they were.
 
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Oh man, I hate to be the wet blanket in my very first post. But despite the two championships (which were epic), Ollie, etc., I think we're still a tough sell for "best program in the country" because of our conference affiliation (including the poor TV contract ), the (bogus) argument that our tourney runs were fluky based on the regular seasons that preceded the two championship runs, the inherent recruiting advantages of places like UK, Duke and UNC, and UConn's relatively recent ascension to royalty status.

I think "best programs" have to start with UK, Kansas and Duke. I loathe UK and Duke particularly, but they are what they are: college hoops behemoths. In my mind it would take another 20 years of consistent Top 15 finishes, including multiple conference titles and at least one more national title, before we could be considered the best program in the country.

But we're definitely up there, which itself is an amazing achievement.
 
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Oh man, I hate to be the wet blanket in my very first post. But despite the two championships (which were epic), Ollie, etc., I think we're still a tough sell for "best program in the country" because of our conference affiliation (including the poor TV contract ), the (bogus) argument that our tourney runs were fluky based on the regular seasons that preceded the two championship runs, the inherent recruiting advantages of places like UK, Duke and UNC, and UConn's relatively recent ascension to royalty status.

I think "best programs" have to start with UK, Kansas and Duke. I loathe UK and Duke particularly, but they are what they are: college hoops behemoths. In my mind it would take another 20 years of consistent Top 15 finishes, including multiple conference titles and at least one more national title, before we could be considered the best program in the country.

But we're definitely up there, which itself is an amazing achievement.

In terms of "all-time" best programs, I agree with you. We're in the discussion but outside of the top 3, looking in.

In terms of best programs recently I don't think there's much debate to be had. No other team has had the success we've had in the past 5 seasons, and the conference realignment and recruiting disadvantages only further the point as they were/are roadblocks we've overcome to get to where we are. No other "elite" team has had more thrown at them in the past 5 years and no other "elite" team has had more success. I would say overcoming adversity the way we have is what would make a team the "best program".
 
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I can see an argument to be made that we've been too inconsistent to be the best team, but we're certainly in the middle of the conversation. You see when people talk about the elite programs (people, not pundits), they talk about teams UConn, Kansas, UK, Duke, and then someone like Zona or MSU.
 
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In the last decade (arbitrary, and makes us miss our 2004 title):

Titles
UConn: 2 (2011, 2014)
UNC: 2 (2005, 2009)
Florida: 2 (2006, 2007)
Louisville: 1 (2013)
Kentucky: 1 (2012)
Duke: 1 (2010)
Kansas: 1 (2008)

That's your top 7 right there, in some order, I'd suggest.

Looking deeper.

Final Fours

UConn: 3 (2009, 2011, 2014)
Florida: 3 (2006, 2007, 2014)
Kentucky: 3 (2011, 2012, 2014)
Louisville: 3 (2005, 2012, 2013)
Michigan State: 3 (2005, 2009, 2010)
UNC: 3 (2005, 2008, 2009)
UCLA: 3 (2006, 2007, 2008)
Kansas: 2 (2008, 2012)
Ohio State: 2 (2007, 2012)
Butler: 2 (2010, 2011)
Duke: 1 (2010)

Okay...of your teams that have one a title, one of these teams is not like the others...Duke falls to last among title winners. At least it seems so far. Michigan State, UCLA, Ohio State, and Butler all have multiple Final Fours in the last decade. With more titles and equal Final Fours, UNC, UConn, and Florida distinguish themselves from UK and Louisville...although, since our country values recency, I'd probably put UK above UNC since they've done more in the last 5 years. And I'd consider putting UK above Florida as well, since Florida's title's are now 7 years old.

But, what about E8s?

Florida: 6 (2006, 2007, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014)
UNC: 6 (2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012)
Kentucky: 5 (2005, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014)
Louisville: 5 (2005, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013)
UConn: 4 (2006, 2009, 2011, 2014)
Michigan State: 4 (2005, 2009, 2010, 2014)
Kansas: 4 (2007, 2008, 2011, 2012)
Ohio State: 3 (2007, 2012, 2013)
UCLA: 3 (2006, 2007, 2008)
Duke: 2 (2010, 2013)
Butler: 2 (2010, 2011)

So, what does all this tell us? Any discussion of best team of the last decade can't take place without UConn, Florida, UK, UNC, and Louisville. Those are the Top 5. But there's a certain arbitrariness to it: if we expand the window 1 year, UConn has 3 to Florida and UK's 2. If we shrink the window 1 year, UNC falls out of that first tier of teams with multiple titles. It all depends on how far we want to go back.

Ultimately, taking recency and titles primarily into consideration, I go:

UConn
UK
Florida
Louisville
UNC
Kansas
Duke
Michigan State
Ohio State

And, probably pick a team not on this list (Arizona? Syracuse? Michigan?) to serve as the 10th team.
  • Butler's lack of success beyond that 2-year window makes them not really worthy to be 10
  • UCLA's absence from title contention for the last 6 years or so (since the Westbrook-Love team) means I can't really put them in there comfortably either.
  • But, while we all expect great things from Arizona soon, they have to win something, or make the Final Four for the first time since 2001.
  • Michigan could have made this list if they guarded the 3 point shooter or took out Louisville.
  • Syracuse could have made this list were it not for injuries in 2010 or suspensions in 2012 (two years they may have had the best team).
 

CL82

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I love that UConn shows so well despite the ban year. That team had the potential to make some noise.

I think Kentucky will be formidable. The Squid has been a threat based on talent alone. This year he'll have talent plus experience. We'll need at least on of the new guards (Purvis?) to be a strong defensive presence to beat them.
 
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Oh man, I hate to be the wet blanket in my very first post. But despite the two championships (which were epic), Ollie, etc., I think we're still a tough sell for "best program in the country" because of our conference affiliation (including the poor TV contract ), the (bogus) argument that our tourney runs were fluky based on the regular seasons that preceded the two championship runs, the inherent recruiting advantages of places like UK, Duke and UNC, and UConn's relatively recent ascension to royalty status.

I think "best programs" have to start with UK, Kansas and Duke. I loathe UK and Duke particularly, but they are what they are: college hoops behemoths. In my mind it would take another 20 years of consistent Top 15 finishes, including multiple conference titles and at least one more national title, before we could be considered the best program in the country.

But we're definitely up there, which itself is an amazing achievement.

So we win this year and have 3 of last 5, not top program? How about again following year and have 4 out of last 6? How about win again following year and have 5 out of last 7? If it takes 20 years to win just 1 more title would be hard pressed to see UConn as best program in country as probably several teams in that time frame would have multiple championships.
Kentucky has 8 championships of which 4 are 1958 and prior and 1 in this century.
Champs this century:
UConn 3
Duke 2
NC 2
Fl 2
Maryland, Fruit, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville 1

For Fruit, Maryland and Florida those are only championships, ever. Add 2 more years and get Mich State and another UConn.

Right now, its UConn.
 

UConnSwag11

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1.UCONN
2.UK
3. UL
4. MSU
5. UF
6. Duke
7.KU
8. UVA
9. UNC
10. CUSE

i'm solid on my top 5... the others it doesnt matter to me the order... I also see this all changing drastically in a few years when coach k, roy williams, Boheim, Izzo, Pitino, all retire and have to find successors
 

UConnSwag11

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i also seeing louisville winning the ACC this year
 

OkaForPrez

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@tzznandrew You realize that all of your thoughts came out pretty close to @RegisteredUconn 's scoring system right?

1. UConn (47)
2. Kentucky (44.5)
3. Louisville (36)
4. Kansas (25.5)
5. North Carolina (24.5)
6. Florida (23.5)
7. Michigan State (22.5)
8T. Butler & Duke (22)
10. Syracuse (20)

UConn
UK
Florida
Louisville
UNC
Kansas
Duke
Michigan State
Ohio State

Florida got a bump for you because you went back a decade to grab their back to back but its more or less the same.
 

intlzncster

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In the last decade (arbitrary, and makes us miss our 2004 title):

Titles
UConn: 2 (2011, 2014)
UNC: 2 (2005, 2009)
Florida: 2 (2006, 2007)
Louisville: 1 (2013)
Kentucky: 1 (2012)
Duke: 1 (2010)
Kansas: 1 (2008)

That's your top 7 right there, in some order, I'd suggest.

Looking deeper.

Final Fours

UConn: 3 (2009, 2011, 2014)
Florida: 3 (2006, 2007, 2014)
Kentucky: 3 (2011, 2012, 2014)
Louisville: 3 (2005, 2012, 2013)
Michigan State: 3 (2005, 2009, 2010)
UNC: 3 (2005, 2008, 2009)
UCLA: 3 (2006, 2007, 2008)
Kansas: 2 (2008, 2012)
Ohio State: 2 (2007, 2012)
Butler: 2 (2010, 2011)
Duke: 1 (2010)

Okay...of your teams that have one a title, one of these teams is not like the others...Duke falls to last among title winners. At least it seems so far. Michigan State, UCLA, Ohio State, and Butler all have multiple Final Fours in the last decade. With more titles and equal Final Fours, UNC, UConn, and Florida distinguish themselves from UK and Louisville...although, since our country values recency, I'd probably put UK above UNC since they've done more in the last 5 years. And I'd consider putting UK above Florida as well, since Florida's title's are now 7 years old.

But, what about E8s?

Florida: 6 (2006, 2007, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014)
UNC: 6 (2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012)
Kentucky: 5 (2005, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014)
Louisville: 5 (2005, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013)
UConn: 4 (2006, 2009, 2011, 2014)
Michigan State: 4 (2005, 2009, 2010, 2014)
Kansas: 4 (2007, 2008, 2011, 2012)
Ohio State: 3 (2007, 2012, 2013)
UCLA: 3 (2006, 2007, 2008)
Duke: 2 (2010, 2013)
Butler: 2 (2010, 2011)

So, what does all this tell us? Any discussion of best team of the last decade can't take place without UConn, Florida, UK, UNC, and Louisville. Those are the Top 5. But there's a certain arbitrariness to it: if we expand the window 1 year, UConn has 3 to Florida and UK's 2. If we shrink the window 1 year, UNC falls out of that first tier of teams with multiple titles. It all depends on how far we want to go back.

Ultimately, taking recency and titles primarily into consideration, I go:

UConn
UK
Florida
Louisville
UNC
Kansas
Duke
Michigan State
Ohio State

And, probably pick a team not on this list (Arizona? Syracuse? Michigan?) to serve as the 10th team.
  • Butler's lack of success beyond that 2-year window makes them not really worthy to be 10
  • UCLA's absence from title contention for the last 6 years or so (since the Westbrook-Love team) means I can't really put them in there comfortably either.
  • But, while we all expect great things from Arizona soon, they have to win something, or make the Final Four for the first time since 2001.
  • Michigan could have made this list if they guarded the 3 point shooter or took out Louisville.
  • Syracuse could have made this list were it not for injuries in 2010 or suspensions in 2012 (two years they may have had the best team).

I prefer to use a 15 yr time frame, as I think that most accurately represents the situation, but who am I to quibble. Nice work.
 
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