Team's 3-pt Shooting Percentage

[Surly1]

On Sunday, the game against Seton Hall will be UConn's 19th game. To date, I'm somewhat flummoxed by the team's overall 3-pt shooting percentage. Currently, UConn ranks 37th in the nation with a collective 35.3%. On top is ND, a smidgen below 43%. On a team with a myriad of efficient shooters, I think UConn is underperforming shooting threes. However, I do expect by season's end, the shooters will find their groove.

Who among you would have pegged Morgan Chelli to have the best 3-pt shooting % (10-22) at this juncture? If you did, I want your latest stock recommendation. Since the Iowa St blowout when UConn blazed the nets (20-34) from beyond the arc, they have connected on 54 out of 165 for a 32.7% over 7 games. I don't believe the Iowa St game was an outlier, but if you subtract the game's stats, UConn is connecting on 33% of its three's for the season. That would place them 113th in terms of 3-pt shooting %.

Thankfully, UConn doesn't live or die beyond the arc, nor are they dependent on getting to the foul line (less than 10 attempts per game) to win. As with past UConn teams, they shoot the ball efficiently (50.8%), and they protect the ball (a little more than 10 TO's per game). However, I do feel they can shoot significantly better from long range, which will open up the floor for Paige, Azzi, and Ash to display their mid-range talents, and for Sarah, KK & Morgan to take the ball to the basket more.

Currently, Ash is the only player besides Morgan shooting above 40% from the arc. A pure shooter, Azzi has a career 38.7% from long range. I realize it is an unfair expectation, but with her stroke, I'm surprised when she misses. If Azzi keeps trending the way she is, that % will obviously go up.

Since Paige connected on 5 of 7 from three in the Iowa St game, she is only 6-22. Unlike Azzi and Ash who are great catch-and-shoot players, Paige is a much better shooter in motion. Over this span, I feel her 3-pt attempts, particularly when she misses, haven't been in flow, but are forced - like I haven't heaved one up in awhile, so here goes. This might feel like nitpicking, but Paige, like Azzi, is just too good of a player/shooter.

There is one reason why I think the team will shoot better as the tourney approaches. There are 9 on the roster that are averaging 15 minutes or more of playing time (Morgan is a shade below). Geno has experimented with many different player combinations, and that may be disruptive to developing a shooting rhythm. In theory, the outside shooting % should improve as the rotation tightens and court continuity increases for the core players.

As long as UConn keeps winning, 3-pt shooting isn't a factor. However, they have too many players who are capable of shooting the lights out, as we saw in the Iowa St game. Imagine how difficult it will be for teams to defend UConn firing on all cylinders, facing them for the first time.

Oddly enough, it seems UConn brings out every opponent's best outside shooting game. Beginning with Seton Hall, let's reverse the table.

 

[Blond D.]

Don't forget we have Q throwing 3's up. It took Allie and Sarah a few games to get their 3 point shots to fall. Azzi had to get re-acquainted with the 3pt. shot after she came back, twice. Ashlynn hit a dry spell. So its taking awhile to get it all together.

 

[oldude]

One important element in 3-pt shooting is having a consistent scoring threat in the paint. That forces opponents to collapse on the post, leaving shooters uncovered at the 3-pt line. This UConn team doesn’t really have a consistent post scorer….yet.

 

[PacoSwede]

many of the off-target threes come when the shooter is wide open. that of course happens, but ... not this often. (if these kids really are sharpshooters -- i think some skepticism about that is warranted.)

 

[Bigboote]

Don't forget we have Q throwing 3's up. It took Allie and Sarah a few games to get their 3 point shots to fall. Azzi had to get re-acquainted with the 3pt. shot after she came back, twice. Ashlynn hit a dry spell. So its taking awhile to get it all together.

Yeah, take away Q, Chen, Ice, and KK and the stats don’t look so bad.

 

[Oldschoolbb]

Who among you would have pegged Morgan Chelli to have the best 3-pt shooting % (10-22) at this juncture? If you did, I want your latest stock recommendation. Since the Iowa St blowout when UConn blazed the nets (20-34) from beyond the arc, they have connected on 54 out of 165 for a 32.7% over 7 games. I don't believe the Iowa St game was an outlier, but if you subtract the game's stats, UConn is connecting on 33% of its three's for the season. That would place them 113th in terms of 3-pt shooting %.

Let me get this straight. They have had one game of fantastic 3 point shooting (which I said at the time wasn't sustainable, btw) and 7 games of poor 3 point shooting and you don't believe the Iowa State performance was an outlier? I'm pretty convinced it was.

 

[oldhusky]

Yeah, take away Q, Chen, Ice, and KK and the stats don’t look so bad.

Agreed. I think a realistic expectation for this team from beyond the arc is that we will be good but not great. Azzi, Paige, Ashlynn and Sarah I expect to be good. Allie too but she may not get much playing time. Morgan might be good, but the jury is still out on her from my standpoint, I think she might be pretty good but not as accurate as she has shown so far.

The other side of the issue is we have several players who are passable at best, but still put up a fair number of attempts. I think this is somewhat by design. I believe Geno wants Kaitlin and KK for example to shoot it when they are open, but if I were an opposing coach and the defense gave up an open three to either of those, I would think the defense did a decent job, and way better than most alternatives. The same would be true for Aubrey when she returns. In Ice's case the defense wants her to shoot threes IMO.

If we limited threes to only our best shooters, the percentage would be much better, but I think Geno can live with an occasional 30% or a little less attempt within the flow of the offense, as long as it is not too often. Azzi getting 30 minutes or more a game would help but from a position standpoint our regular PG's Kaitlin and KK are not three point sharpshooters, and PG's frequently are.

 

[DavidinNaples]

This year, through 18 games, UConn is shooting 35.3% from three range. They are 153-433. How did previous teams shoot from beyond the arc?

For 2023-24 = 36.2%
For 2022-23 = 35.7%
For 2021-22 = 33.8%
For 2020-21 = 35.6%

The average for those previous 4 years is 35.3%.
It would appear the Huskies are neither better nor worse than the combined average of the previous four teams.
Thoughts?

Go Huskies..!!

 

[Rowdy831]

Teams that think they can win shooting threes usually don't go too far in the tournament. For UConn to shoot threes at a high percentage teams would have to play defense in the half court like UConn does sometimes. That man to man where the offside shooter has a defender in the lane with no chance to retreat before the shot goes off.

Geno wants more threes but to me they have three players who are exceptional shooters from zero to 18 feet. Paige, Azzi and Ash can all shoot 60% on those shots and get quite a few open looks so that is where I would focus. Sure I would shoot threes but my offense for the most part would be based on efficiency and it would certainly have Morgan in the lineup with Azzi, Paige and Sarah when I wanted to really put the heat on the opponent.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

IMHO the reason the 3-point averages are low even though UConn has some really good 3-point talent is the line-up has been messed up with Paige out for 3 games, Azzi out for 3 or 4 games, and other disturbances to our getting used to the games!
There has been no continuity to each players court time!
If we can get our girls regular court time I feel our averages will pickup to where they should be!
But then again what do I know? There are days I have to check my driver's license to find out my name!

 

[JoePgh]

A team that has Azzi, Paige, and Sarah, with Ashlynn / Morgan / Allie on the bench, should be in the top 10% of the country in 3-point shooting. If it isn't at that level yet, then the problem should be fixable as the team gets more reps against more opponents.

However, those who pay attention to the NBA know that a certain green team in New England, with 3-point shooters like Jayson Tatum, Derrick White, and Jaylen Brown (with Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, and Al Horford on the bench) has had a lot of games lately where they have shot below 33% from 3 -- and they have lost many of those games. Supposedly the number crunchers in the Celtics front office have calculated that if the Celtics take 40% of their shots from 3-point land and hit 35%, they should win almost every game. Last year, those numbers appeared to be borne out.

The fact is that 3-point shooting is very hot-and-cold, and both hot streaks and cold streaks seem to be contagious across all members of the team. Mid-range shots are a more consistent and lower-risk way to run an offense, as @Rowdy831 suggests in his post above. I don't think Geno will ever get to the point that Joe Mazzulla has with the Celtics, taking 40% of the team's shots from the 3-point line. But I would expect that the long-term trend is for UConn as a team to hit in the high 30% range from 3, and that recent performances have simply reflected the bottom end of the probability curve. So I think Geno will continue to want the team to take about a third of its shots from distance, and the efficiency will improve through the workings of the Law of Large Numbers.

 

[JellyBean]

I think we have always been around the 37% 3-point shooting range as a team for a while. The only time I can remember us having a really good 3-point shooting team was during one year of the 4-peat when the team shot around 40% either 2013-14 or 2014-25 season.

 

[sun]

Timing is everything.
The team needs to be able to make the 3's when they need them.
Averages won't win a game, only baskets count.

 

[meyers7]

I think we have always been around the 37% 3-point shooting range as a team for a while. The only time I can remember us having a really good 3-point shooting team was during one year of the 4-peat when the team shot around 40% either 2013-14 or 2014-25 season.

2014-2015 - .406
2016-2017 - .405
2017-2018 - .400
2019-2020 - .399

 

[Oldschoolbb]

A team that has Azzi, Paige, and Sarah, with Ashlynn / Morgan / Allie on the bench, should be in the top 10% of the country in 3-point shooting. If it isn't at that level yet, then the problem should be fixable as the team gets more reps against more opponents.

However, those who pay attention to the NBA know that a certain green team in New England, with 3-point shooters like Jayson Tatum, Derrick White, and Jaylen Brown (with Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, and Al Horford on the bench) has had a lot of games lately where they have shot below 33% from 3 -- and they have lost many of those games. Supposedly the number crunchers in the Celtics front office have calculated that if the Celtics take 40% of their shots from 3-point land and hit 35%, they should win almost every game. Last year, those numbers appeared to be borne out.

The fact is that 3-point shooting is very hot-and-cold, and both hot streaks and cold streaks seem to be contagious across all members of the team. Mid-range shots are a more consistent and lower-risk way to run an offense, as @Rowdy831 suggests in his post above. I don't think Geno will ever get to the point that Joe Mazzulla has with the Celtics, taking 40% of the team's shots from the 3-point line. But I would expect that the long-term trend is for UConn as a team to hit in the high 30% range from 3, and that recent performances have simply reflected the bottom end of the probability curve. So I think Geno will continue to want the team to take about a third of its shots from distance, and the efficiency will improve through the workings of the Law of Large Numbers.

But comparison to the pro game is inapposite because of the playoff system is an entirely different animal than the NCAA single elimination tournament. Have a bad game in the NBA playoffs and you lose a game. Have a bad game in the NCAA playoffs and your season is over. Reliance on three point shooting in the NCAA tourney, unless you have outstanding three point shooters, is playing with fire.

 

[packwrap]

This 3 PT discussion is largely a non issue. We have a classic UConn team driven by defense and transition.

The whole team can score at all 3 levels, yes even Jana, Ice, Q and Aubrey have a green light to shoot an open 3. Similarly, Azzi, Chen and Ash all have strong mid range and rim finishing skills.

With Paige, Azzi, Allie, Ash and Sarah all being streaky 3 PT shooters, there is always a chance that we have some blisteringly ridiculous night from 3, but that's not the plan.

Geno likes options, and making the defense defend whole court, as they are not sure where the shot will come from.