Talkin' Kentucky

[alexrgct]

I'm not sure what to make of this Kentucky team. On the one hand, that was a very good performance last night against Gonzaga. On the other, I'm willing to bet that UK doesn't shoot lights out from behind the arc against UConn. On the third hand, for most of the season, Kentucky looked like a top 5 team. On the fourth, they had some horrible losses late in the season and could easily have been knocked off by Green Bay if GB had come out poised. So how good is UK really, and should UConn fans be concerned?

What I like about Kentucky is their energy and intensity. Their disruptiveness on D is similar to UConn's when the Cats are playing well. But Tennessee and Notre Dame both managed to score more than 90 on them this season.

Maybe it's fair to say this: at their best, they give a UConn-like level of effort but without the same precision and discipline. For that reason, I think UConn should win, but I also expect it's going to be a difficult game. Thankfully, unlike GB or Gonzaga, UConn has played a lot of intense, physical, and in some cases downright nasty teams this season. Plus they practice against each other. Hopefully, that preparation pays off Tuesday night.

 

[speedoo]

I actually fell asleep during their game last night, and I really don't have much of a feel for them. But I do know that Sagarin's "predictor" has them pretty much equal to Penn State as of this morning, despite KY's much stronger record vs. Top 25, and that they don't have much size.

I'd guess UConn's game plan will be something like:
1. Value possessions, watch out for traps
2. Go inside a lot on offense
3. Play UConn defense

 

[DaddyChoc]

they just seems sloppy (energy & intensity) to me... and that could be dangerous to UConn. they have a few scoring weapons BUT they post seems weak after Samarie.

if they rattle UConn a lil it will be an interesting game... a calm and precise-play running UConn will win easily.

 

[sarals24]

I think Stef will be extra motivated against Samarie. And Matthias is a hot and cold playaer, I think she might be frustrated at the UConn defense. It will be a tough game, though, just because UK's athleticism might make the Huskie's offense look bad for stretches. Ultimately I think it will come down to defense and reboudning, and I think UConn has the edge here.

 

[huskeynut]

I think Kentucky falls into the Penn State category, a very good team but not an elite team such as Baylor, Stamford, ND and us.

It should be close for a short while and then the Uconn lead will methodically expand the lead.

Kentucky is athletic but so is Uconn.

 

[HGN]

I think UConn wins this game easily tomorrow night...I just didnt see anything about Kentucky that scared me. They came out with a lot of energy against Gonzaga , but the Zags got right back in it in the 2nd half with hustle and inside scoring. Also , they play a 4-guard offense , same as UConn, but Kentucky's tallest player on the floor is 6'1 Samarie Walker. They play a lineup of 5'7 ;5'8 ; 5'9 ; 5'10 , and 6'1 Walker. They just dont have the size to rebound for 2nd chance shots , and they will be playing bigger players that will be in their face all night long..... Stef and Kiah should get a double-double.

 

[HGN]

I say, since Samarie wanted to go home when she was at UConn , lets abliged her and send her, and the rest of the UK team home..........Early.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Kentucky reminds me of Georgetown and SJU some. They play with speed and intensity and turn teams over. In the halfcourt, they can be offensively challenged. Yesterday, they shot extremely well, but they will not get open looks against us. For Kentucky to succeeed, they need to play their style. If the opponent doesn't allow it, they may not come close to winning. They are dangerous, especially at his stage, but they could also lose by 20+.

 

[Icebear]

KY #1 problem is they can be forced into TOs and we love to feast on those.

 

[doggydaddy]

Kentucky is a terrible shooting team. 40.4% from the field and 32.1% on 3's.

Regardless of their 12-21 3 point shooting last night, unless Kentucky can turn Uconn over many times and capitalize on those TO's by scoring, UK will struggle to reach 60.

 

[Sonny44]

I don't think they match up well against us.
We'll beat them as bad or worse than Penn ST., guaranteed.

 

[huskybill]

"We'll beat them as bad or worse than Penn ST., guaranteed"

If UConn loses, can we give back your guarantee?

 

[alexrgct]

"We'll beat them as bad or worse than Penn ST., guaranteed"

If UConn loses, can we give back your guarantee?

Sonny will give you a full refund for what you paid for it.

 

[ASweet3781]

I have to imagine that UConn will be even more motivated than usual. Not just because of what's on the line, but I have to imagine a lot of the players and coaches are not too happy about what Ms. Walker pulled during last season which all but sealed the teams fate of not winning a championship. Perhaps the motto should be "Maya's revenge".

 

[DobbsRover2]

Kentucky is a terrible shooting team. 40.4% from the field and 32.1% on 3's.

Regardless of their 12-21 3 point shooting last night, unless Kentucky can turn Uconn over many times and capitalize on those TO's by scoring, UK will struggle to reach 60.

32% for 3s is actually decent and they're ranked a respecatble 85th in the nation, but definitely their overall FG% at around 40% is just bad, and their FT% at 66.5% is likewise bad. They foul like crazy and turn the ball over an average of almost 18 times a game, which is really dangerous against a team like UConn. On the flip side of course, they probably lead the nation in forcing opponents' turnovers at 27 per game, are 2nd in turnover margin, 13th in steals, and do a lot of scoring off those takeaways. UConn cannot afford to get sloppy against this ball-hawking team. The Wildcats have taken an incredible 466 more shots than their opponents this year (UConn's margin is 183), and even when shooting 40%, that explains why they outscore teams by an average 15 ppg on the season.

 

[doggydaddy]

32% for 3s is actually decent and they're ranked a respecatble 85th in the nation, but definitely their overall FG% at around 40% is just bad, and their FT% at 66.5% is likewise bad. They foul like crazy and turn the ball over an average of almost 18 times a game, which is really dangerous against a team like UConn. On the flip side of course, they probably lead the nation in forcing opponents' turnovers at 27 per game, are 2nd in turnover margin, 13th in steals, and do a lot of scoring off those takeaways. UConn cannot afford to get sloppy against this ball-hawking team. The Wildcats have taken an incredible 466 more shots than their opponents this year (UConn's margin is 183), and even when shooting 40%, that explains why they outscore teams by an average 15 ppg on the season.

Well, how is 31.3? Because that is what they were shooting before the 12-21 in their last game.

IF they don't turn UConn over and turn it into points it will look like the Tennessee for them.

 

[Sonny44]

"We'll beat them as bad or worse than Penn ST., guaranteed"

If UConn loses, can we give back your guarantee?

I'll grind it up and eat it.

 

[EricLA]

I have to imagine that UConn will be even more motivated than usual. Not just because of what's on the line, but I have to imagine a lot of the players and coaches are not too happy about what Ms. Walker pulled during last season which all but sealed the teams fate of not winning a championship. Perhaps the motto should be "Maya's revenge".

i don't believe that will play into it. at least not in the way we think. Samarie had some serious personal issues to deal with, but she tried to tough it out for a semester, and realized she just couldn't do it. so my point is, while the players may be disappointed a top 10 recruit chose to transfer mid season, i'd bet they don't have any animosity towards her.

 

[Sonny44]

32% for 3s is actually decent and they're ranked a respecatble 85th in the nation, but definitely their overall FG% at around 40% is just bad, and their FT% at 66.5% is likewise bad. They foul like crazy and turn the ball over an average of almost 18 times a game, which is really dangerous against a team like UConn. On the flip side of course, they probably lead the nation in forcing opponents' turnovers at 27 per game, are 2nd in turnover margin, 13th in steals, and do a lot of scoring off those takeaways. UConn cannot afford to get sloppy against this ball-hawking team. The Wildcats have taken an incredible 466 more shots than their opponents this year (UConn's margin is 183), and even when shooting 40%, that explains why they outscore teams by an average 15 ppg on the season.

I don't get how 85th in the nation is respectable when you're playing a top seed.

 

[Goodies07]

I think any team with a star that can create her own shot and shots for others is potentially a dangerous one. And that's exactly what Kentucky has with Mathies. If she catches fire, it could turn into a difficult game.

I found this to be an interesting stat: Only one player on Kentucky's entire roster has a positive assist/TO ratio (Amber Smith), while 6 of Uconn's top 8 have more assists than turnovers.

 

[Icebear]

I don't get how 85th in the nation is respectable when you're playing a top seed.

It is not a top 20% effort. I would call it better than average, but not good.

 

[Icebear]

I think any team with a star that can create her own shot and shots for others is potentially a dangerous one. And that's exactly what Kentucky has with Mathies. If she catches fire, it could turn into a difficult game.

I found this to be an interesting stat: Only one player on Kentucky's entire roster has a positive assist/TO ratio (Amber Smith), while 6 of Uconn's top 8 have more assists than turnovers.

They had 57 TOs in the first two rounds. They force TOs but can give them away quickly, too.

 

[Icebear]

If PSU with their sharpshooters didn't light us up do we really expect KY to do so. Play the same full commitment D and everything else will take care of itself.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Well, how is 31.3? Because that is what they were shooting before the 12-21 in their last game.

IF they don't turn UConn over and turn it into points it will look like the Tennessee for them.

That would drop them down to around 118th, still in the top third of all schools (so not terrible), but I've never been a big fan of selectively removing games to "massage" the stats. If you take away UConn's game against Pacific early in the year, they go from 35.3% to 34.9%, but my question would be, why do that?

The other thing about 3-pt rankings is that at the middle level, the difference doesn't mean much. The 88th rated team is shooting 32.0%, and a 1% difference drop to 31.0% gets you to the 131st rated team. That 1% difference amounts to one 3-pt shot extra made during the course of more than 5 games for a team like KY that shoots almost 19 per game. I'm not going to fret over about 0.6 ppg that much if I'm a coach or player.

 

[doggydaddy]

That would drop them down to around 118th, still in the top third of all schools (so not terrible), but I've never been a big fan of selectively removing games to "massage" the stats. If you take away UConn's game against Pacific early in the year, they go from 35.3% to 34.9%, but my question would be, why do that?

The other thing about 3-pt rankings is that at the middle level, the difference doesn't mean much. The 88th rated team is shooting 32.0%, and a 1% difference drop to 31.0% gets you to the 131st rated team. That 1% difference amounts to one 3-pt shot extra made during the course of more than 5 games for a team like KY that shoots almost 19 per game. I'm not going to fret over about 0.6 ppg that much if I'm a coach or player.

It was just the last game, so I totally disagree with you. Not selective at all.

31% is not good. It might be not terrible to you, but it is to me.