Taking a Stab at the New Rankings......Nah

[Fairfield Fan]

The upsets Sunday alone include Florida State over Louisville on Louisville's home court. And then Missouri, Duke, and Rutgers.

On Friday Oregon State knocked off Oregon, while Utah upset Arizona State.

On Thursday, Penn State (and Boykin) upset Rutgers.

Wednesday saw Oklahoma State upsetting West Virginia.

The day before that Michigan upset Ohio State, and Nebraska upset Iowa.

So how many upsets is that?

For the new rankings: pick 'em!!!

Duke should drop, while Rutgers should drop out entirely. Ohio State should drop. And Louisville should be pushed out of the #2 spot.

The only certainty is that Connecticut remains on top with all #1 votes.

 

[Phil]

When I glanced at the scoreboard yesterday, I saw 6 ranked teams with a loss. There were two games featuring ranked teams, so two were baked in the cake, but 5 of the 6 were upsets. Only the TN loss wasn't an upset.

Edit, oops 4 of 6 . OR OR ST wasn't an upset this day.

 

[Plebe]

The only certainty is that Connecticut remains on top with all #1 votes.

Not the only one. Mississippi State will certainly move up to #2.

 

[ProSkeptic]

The upsets Sunday alone include Florida State over Louisville on Louisville's home court. And then Missouri, Duke, and Rutgers.

On Friday Oregon State knocked off Oregon, while Utah upset Arizona State.

On Thursday, Penn State (and Boykin) upset Rutgers.

Wednesday saw Oklahoma State upsetting West Virginia.

The day before that Michigan upset Ohio State, and Nebraska upset Iowa.

So how many upsets is that?

For the new rankings: pick 'em!!!

Duke should drop, while Rutgers should drop out entirely. Ohio State should drop. And Louisville should be pushed out of the #2 spot.

The only certainty is that Connecticut remains on top with all #1 votes.

Missouri won. Bigly. Against Arkansas. No upset there.

Wonder if the voters will place ND above L’Ville. Otherwise, it’s UConn; MSSU; Baylor; ND/L’Ville.

 

[chuck.r]

Looking at yesterday's slate, there were 13 games that involved ranked teams. Only 4 games were "upsets" in the sense of a lower-ranked or unranked team defeating a higher-ranked opponent: Fla St over Lou; N Car over Duke; Minn over Iowa; and Neb over Rutgers. All other games played to form (the higher ranked team prevailed). All Saturday games involving ranked teams played to form as well. I doubt there will be much shake up in the rankings, other than Louisville sliding below Miss St. and Tenn dropping a couple of spots. Duke will take a hit as well. Fla St should get a boost.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Looking at yesterday's slate, there were 13 games that involved ranked teams. Only 4 games were "upsets" in the sense of a lower-ranked or unranked team defeating a higher-ranked opponent: Fla St over Lou; N Car over Duke; Minn over Iowa; and Neb over Rutgers. All other games played to form (the higher ranked team prevailed). All Saturday games involving ranked teams played to form as well. I doubt there will be much shake up in the rankings, other than Louisville sliding below Miss St. and Tenn dropping a couple of spots. Duke will take a hit as well. Fla St should get a boost.

Yes, but Rutgers lost twice to unranked teams. Arizona State might drop. Stanford lost its 8th game of the season and second in the Pac-12 to UCLA. So combined with its los to Western Illinois, I think that should keep them out of the rankings for the duration.

Duke's loss to UNC has to hurt their #15 ranking.

#20 Iowa has now lost three games in a row to unranked opponents. I'm guessing that they drop out of the Top 25.

With four straight wins, Michigan could inch up. But they have the embarrassing problem of having lost to the above Iowa.

South Florida just suffered an embarrassing loss to- wait for it!!!- 9-12 Wichita State, likely ending their hopes of moving up, and possibly sending them down sharply.

I might say some mid-majors deserve a second look. But most have some losses to weak teams, with much of the rest of the schedule against patsies.

 

[chuck.r]

Yes, but Rutgers lost twice to unranked teams. Arizona State might drop. Stanford lost its 8th game of the season and second in the Pac-12 to UCLA. So combined with its los to Western Illinois, I think that should keep them out of the rankings for the duration.

Duke's loss to UNC has to hurt their #15 ranking.

#20 Iowa has now lost three games in a row to unranked opponents. I'm guessing that they drop out of the Top 25.

With four straight wins, Michigan could inch up. But they have the embarrassing problem of having lost to the above Iowa.

South Florida just suffered an embarrassing loss to- wait for it!!!- 9-12 Wichita State, likely ending their hopes of moving up, and possibly sending them down sharply.

I might say some mid-majors deserve a second look. But most have some losses to weak teams, with much of the rest of the schedule against patsies.

I agree - Iowa, AZ ST, and definitely Rutgers will take hits. Georgia looks to be the big beneficiary, especially having received a Top-16 seed "look-in" from the NCAA last week. You'll have to forgive me - I tend to overlook the rankings below 18-19 - I don't scroll down that far

Speaking of Georgia - an interesting week for "upstart" Missouri: 2 road conference games - at Georgia and the return match at South Carolina.

 

[Shades]

Here's my rough estimate of the new AP Top 25
1. Connecticut
2. Mississippi St
3. Baylor
4. Louisville (first loss only by one pt. Destroyed ND head-to-head)
5. Notre Dame
6. Oregon
7. Texas
8. South Carolina (Wilson is back!)
9. Florida St
10. Missouri
11. Tennessee
12. Ohio St
13. UCLA
14. Maryland
15. Texas A&M
16. Michigan
17. Duke
18. Oregon St
19. Green Bay
20. West Virginia
21. Oklahoma St
22. California
23. Georgia
24. Arizona St
25. Stanford

Out: Rutgers, Iowa
In: Georgia, Stanford

 

[Orangutan]

Not the only one. Mississippi State will certainly move up to #2.

I think the top 5 is actually quite clear. Has to be 1) UConn, 2) Miss. St., 3) Baylor, 4)Louisville, 5) ND

After that is where it gets messy.

 

[eebmg]

Here's my rough estimate of the new AP Top 25
1. Connecticut
2. Mississippi St
3. Baylor
4. Louisville (first loss only by one pt. Destroyed ND head-to-head)
5. Notre Dame
6. Oregon
7. Texas
8. South Carolina (Wilson is back!)
9. Florida St
10. Missouri
11. Tennessee
12. Ohio St
13. UCLA
14. Maryland
15. Texas A&M
16. Michigan
17. Duke
18. Oregon St
19. Green Bay
20. West Virginia
21. Oklahoma St
22. California
23. Georgia
24. Arizona St
25. Stanford

Out: Rutgers, Iowa
In: Georgia, Stanford

Nice job. Especailly nudging TN out of the top 10.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Here's my rough estimate of the new AP Top 25
1. Connecticut
2. Mississippi St
3. Baylor
4. Louisville (first loss only by one pt. Destroyed ND head-to-head)
5. Notre Dame
6. Oregon
7. Texas
8. South Carolina (Wilson is back!)
9. Florida St
10. Missouri
11. Tennessee
12. Ohio St
13. UCLA
14. Maryland
15. Texas A&M
16. Michigan
17. Duke
18. Oregon St
19. Green Bay
20. West Virginia
21. Oklahoma St
22. California
23. Georgia
24. Arizona St
25. Stanford

Out: Rutgers, Iowa
In: Georgia, Stanford

Stanford comes back into the ranking? With eight losses? Hmmm...

I would drop Duke down to the bottom five. Bad loss to UNC.

Fascinating looming match-up from last year: #1 UConn and #2 Mississippi State. Roll the music from Jaws!!!

 

[bizarro aj]

The new rankings are up.

NCAAW Rankings - ESPN

 

[DefenseBB]

Maybe someone on this thread can enlighten me on why the RPI likes the Big10? To me the whole league is appetizers with no meat. OSU and Maryland belong in the later quarter of the top 16 and no one else save Mich deserves consideration for top 25. That league is a set of eh, average teams-Mich St., Iowa, Minn, Rutgers, Penn St...I just don't get it. I like leagues that are "bar-belled" with top quality teams and the proverbial also rans-Big12, SEC, ACC and even the PAC-12.

 

[Phil]

Duke's loss to UNC has to hurt their #15 ranking.

I was riding back from Philly, checking out gmae scores on the phone.

I saw the Duke NC score: Duke up by 6 71-65 with 32 seconds left.

While I knew it was physically possible to give up a 6 point lead in 32 seconds, the win probability chart has them at 99.9% which means one chance in a thousand they would lose.

That's longer than most coaching careers, so it means, if you are a long time coach, you've never been in a game where you blew it that badly.

Frankly, there were other games in progress, and it was only when I got home and checked scores that I saw UNC had won.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Yep, Stanford remains out. Iowa, South Florida, and Rutgers gone.

Surprised to see Duke lose only three places. And once again, the enduring affection for Tennessee keeps them in the top 10, even though they lose three of four games to ranked teams.

Georgia deserves to rise to the rankings.

Did not figure on Texas Christian.

But the top teams just juggle a bit. The cream has now risen to the top.

And that #1 UConn and #2 Mississippi State looms larger and larger.

 

[Shades]

Yep, Stanford remains out.

Barely.... by one point.

Surprised to see Duke lose only three places.

It's not like the teams under them are prize winners, and when UNC gets hot, they get hot. I saw it myself against my team.

And once again, the enduring affection for Tennessee keeps them in the top 10, even though they lose three of four games to ranked teams.

I think Missouri will handle them.

Georgia deserves to rise to the rankings.

I didn't think a win against Auburn deserved that much of a rise.

Did not figure on Texas Christian.

That's a head scratcher too. They only had 13 pts last poll, and they only had one win against Kansas to get this spike. They'll be gone soon enough.

 

[Phil]

I've often seen TN get more love than they merit from the pollsters, but I'm fine with this one.

I agree with you re TCU

Huh?

It isn't RPI - they are 72nd. (Which ought to be meaningless, but I'm scrounging to figure out why they are ranked.)

Sagarin has them at 48

Massey at 53.

They had a flukey win at Texas and WV, but they lost to Yale fer gosh sakes.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

I've often seen TN get more love than they merit from the pollsters, but I'm fine with this one.

I agree with you re TCU

Huh?

It isn't RPI - they are 72nd. (Which ought to be meaningless, but I'm scrounging to figure out why they are ranked.)

Sagarin has them at 48

Massey at 53.

They had a flukey win at Texas and WV, but they lost to Yale fer gosh sakes.

Can you put up the Massey rankings? That would be interesting for contrast.

 

[Plebe]

Maybe someone on this thread can enlighten me on why the RPI likes the Big10? To me the whole league is appetizers with no meat. OSU and Maryland belong in the later quarter of the top 16 and no one else save Mich deserves consideration for top 25. That league is a set of eh, average teams-Mich St., Iowa, Minn, Rutgers, Penn St...I just don't get it. I like leagues that are "bar-belled" with top quality teams and the proverbial also rans-Big12, SEC, ACC and even the PAC-12.

Not sure what you mean when you say the RPI "likes" the Big Ten. Do you mean the Big Ten teams are overranked in the RPI?

The only cases of overranking, IMO, are Rutgers (currently #14) and Ohio State (#6). I don't see the other Big Ten teams as overranked:
26. Michigan
29. Iowa
31. Maryland
41. Minnesota
44. Michigan State
47. Purdue
60. Nebraska
68. Indiana
79. Penn State
166. Illinois
182. Northwestern
189. Wisconsin

The RPI very handsomely rewards strong scheduling, which explains why Ohio State (#7 SOS) and Rutgers (#13 SOS) are a bit inflated by RPI. Similarly, because the RPI punishes weak schedules, teams like Baylor (#12), Oklahoma State (#36), and Oregon State (#52) are considerably better teams than their RPI rankings would indicate.

 

[easttexastrash]

Who would have thought that a team could lose by 33 points and move up to a 1 seed. Amazing!! Maybe if Baylor loses by 33 to Texas we can at least move into a 2 seed.

And Louisville loses at home to FSU and keeps their number 1 seeding in Creme's bracketology?

SMH

 

[Plebe]

Who would have thought that a team could lose by 33 points in move up to a 1 seed. Amazing!! And Louisville loses at home to FSU and keeps their number 1 ranking in Creme's bracketology?

SMH

It's amazing how someone who doesn't care about the seeding can continue to drone on about it interminably.

By all means, let's just give Baylor the #1 seed because they beat up on Texas Tech.

 

[TARZAN22]

I like all the upset's. I think it's great for Women's Basketball

 

[DefenseBB]

Not sure what you mean when you say the RPI "likes" the Big Ten. Do you mean the Big Ten teams are overranked in the RPI?
.

Plebe, thanks for the information. I was referring to the conference ranking, not the individual teams. Where I get confused/frustrated is this conference ranking RealTimeRPI.com Women's College Basketball Rating Percentage Index (RPI) Ratings - A leading sports ratings and resources community on the Internet that tells us the Big10 is the #3 conference behind the ACC and SEC. I guess the eye test to me says both the PAC12 and Big12 are better than the BIG10. I am also saddened that the Mid-American ranks higher than the American and the minimal impact UConn has had on the evolution of these teams. I have some hope for UCF and Cincinnati and my arch nemesis USF. I don’t want to see more than 4 Big10 teams in the Tour year this year, they just aren’t that good.

 

[Plebe]

Plebe, thanks for the information. I was referring to the conference ranking, not the individual teams. Where I get confused/frustrated is this conference ranking RealTimeRPI.com Women's College Basketball Rating Percentage Index (RPI) Ratings - A leading sports ratings and resources community on the Internet that tells us the Big10 is the #3 conference behind the ACC and SEC. I guess the eye test to me says both the PAC12 and Big12 are better than the BIG10. I am also saddened that the Mid-American ranks higher than the American and the minimal impact UConn has had on the evolution of these teams. I have some hope for UCF and Cincinnati and my arch nemesis USF. I don’t want to see more than 4 Big10 teams in the Tour year this year, they just aren’t that good.

Those conference rankings are tricky beasts. They are simply the amalgamation of each team's RPI, and as such are subject to all of the same known flaws that plague the RPI team rankings.

Also, the Pac-12's and Big 12's respective RPIs are heavily dragged down by Arizona (#285) and Texas Tech (#234). Not only are these the two lowest-ranking teams in the Power 5 conferences, but their drag effect on their respective conference RPI is that much greater because they are both in 12-team conferences, as opposed to the other three P5 conferences, which have 14 or 15 teams each and therefore a weak team's RPI is less of a drag on the conference RPI.

I also cited earlier three teams—two in the Big 12 and one in the Pac-12—which are clearly better than their current RPI ranking, which also takes its toll on the conference RPI ranking.

 

[DefenseBB]

Those conference rankings are tricky beasts. They are simply the amalgamation of each team's RPI, and as such are subject to all of the same known flaws that plague the RPI team rankings.

Also, the Pac-12's and Big 12's respective RPIs are heavily dragged down by Arizona (#285) and Texas Tech (#234). Not only are these the two lowest-ranking teams in the Power 5 conferences, but their drag effect on their respective conference RPI is that much greater because they are both in 12-team conferences, as opposed to the other three P5 conferences, which have 14 or 15 teams each and therefore a weak team's RPI is less of a drag on the conference RPI.

I also cited earlier three teams—two in the Big 12 and one in the Pac-12—which are clearly better than their current RPI ranking, which also takes its toll on the conference RPI ranking.

I am sort of channeling my inner Geno and want perfection here! Big10 s—ks! Go all other P5 Conferences!
You’re a good man Plebe and I always learn good tidbits from you.