Strength of schedule | The Boneyard

Strength of schedule

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With Cuse losing to Old Dominion our one big win is pretty much negated. Especially if they lose to Buffalo. Let’s say UConn beats Villanova, what does UConn have to do in the AAC to get into the tourney?
 
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Syracuse and Villanova losing basically means we need to go 14-4 in the AAC, or win the AACT. The situation would be much less dire if we had beaten Arizona.
 
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Nova took Kansas to the wire. I love how everyone has that all but notched up.
I’m not saying we will. Nova has shown it plays to the level of its competition. I’m assuming if we lose to Nova there’s not much we can do in AAC play unless we are dominant aka 3-4 losses.
 
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I agree with those that aren’t yet worried. I’m thinking our best basketball is yet to come and I expect a strong finish.
 
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Put me in the pessimistic group. Even if we beat Nova we need 14-4 or 15-3 in conference with no stupid losses. Our conference will do nothing but hurt our SOS. The Arizona loss may really hurt. And with Emmert at the helm he may influence the committee to stick it to us. Just win the AAC tournament.
 
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Hard to see! A Nova win, we need top 3 finish and a good AAC turney showing. A Nova loss, we need top 3 AAC finish and may need to at least get to championship game. Houston, Cincinnati and Temple should do well. I predict that Tulsa and UCF will have bad losses in AAC. We must avoid bad losses. Let's hope Iowa, Arizona and Florida State do great in their conferences.
 

StepbackCity

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I think one game to look out for early is @ USF. First road game might get the guys, most analytic sites have it being a close game.
 
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Syracuse losing is not that big of a deal. Old Dominion was 98 in the NET rankings and will likely move to around 75 or so with that win. It won't drag Syracuse's net down too low.
 
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I believed early on that Hurley's coaching would have the team playing better by now and improving as the season wore on. It looked promising early but since the Syracuse game that hasn't been the case. Sure, if Adams wakes up, Polley becomes more aggressive, Gilbert plays within himself, Vital cuts down on errors, Wilson rapidly progresses, Carlton becomes consistently a 10 and 8 guy, etc. the last 2/3 of the season could be great.

But, take a look at how well many of the teams in the conference are doing in their out of conference games.
A fair number are playing way above their preseason predictions and, based on how well Houston, Cincinnati, Temple, UCF and Tulsa are doing (even SMU won at Georgetown today), winning the league or finishing in the top three looks like a pipe dream right now.
 
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Personally, I think our team has a bunch of talent. But it’s just full of sloppiness. Can’t be a guard oriented team and have that many mistakes. I can’t really blame Hurley Bc this is a lot of coaching out Ollie’s habits. However, I would have liked to see a lot more improvement by this time. We played great early in the season and steadily have performed worse. I just think the only way we get back to pre 16-17 level is when he recruits his players in and we flush out some older players. I don’t mean this in a bad way at all. I just think new talent is needed. I love vital but he has his pit falls. The heart for Jalen isn’t there. This team won’t really do amazing this year. Conference play is gunna be a lot tougher than we think. NIT is realistic. But I’m ok with that. It’s a rebuild.
 

Hankster

What do I know.
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We don’t have a clue what the Cuse win will look like in March. They haven’t even started conference play yet.
True. However, we beat Cuse, they eventually get voted out of the T25. That took the shine out of our win. Cuse needed to get back in the T25, which they did. AND, then they get beat. No chance our win shines above the rest. Not with that kind of loss.
 
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The Orange are a charter member of the tourney and have to finish below .500 to not make it.
At the end of the season, it will be a win over a NCAAT team. The win will age just fine.
 
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I'm really not pessimistic about the team and season. We're better than we were the last two years, and we're generally much more watchable. That being said, our Syracuse win won't look as good if they struggle. A bunch of you are correctly noting that because the AAC might be better than we expected, a good conference record would increase our chances of making the tournament. My concern is that because the conference isn't as weak as it seemed, it's less likely we'll win the number of games I would have predicted two weeks ago. There's definitely a path to the tournament with a top-3 finish and decent AAC tourney run, though.
 

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