Strategies on how to pick your bracket

[shizzle787]

So what strategies are you going to use to fill out your bracket?

This year I am waiting until Thursday morning to fill it out so I know who wins the First Four games.

Also, I am going to pick the first round games in the order they are played. E.g. I am going to pick the Colorado State/Michigan game first.

Regarding seed lines, I always advance the 1 and 2 seeds to the second round.

I sometimes will pick one 3 seed to go down depending on the year.

I always pick one 4 seed to go down.

5 and 6 seeds are matchup dependent but I usually have one region with a 12/13 matchup in the second round.

 

[Tyler2Rings]

First thing I do is write “UConn” six times.

Usually pick Final 4 next, then fill everything else in

 

[shizzle787]

First thing I do is write “UConn” six times.

Usually pick Final 4 next, then fill everything else in

Of course.

 

[TheRealKBuks]

First thing I do is write “UConn” six times.

Usually pick Final 4 next, then fill everything else in

This is the way

 

[elmcityboy]

as usual, i will be fading the big 10 and the pac-12. i am terrible at filling out brackets, but this has been a good strategy for me in the past. i am also gonna be fading the acc this year -- i feel like it's a soft league that got hyped up at the end of the year just because of its brand name schools.

in general, i am going more conservative in the smaller pools i am in, where there are mixes of aficionados and novices, and picking more upsets in some of the bigger pools, where i am less likely to beat cbb nerds by going chalk.

 

[auror]

If you're in a large pool, you should probably make a value champion pick.
If you're in a medium pool, you should pick who you think is going to win.
If you're in a small pool, go pretty chalky.

 

[SubbaBub]

For one bracket, I went with my gut first impression.

For the other I auto-filled using the coin flip option and corrected any obvious mistakes. They had 3 16 seeds advancing? Of course the coin flipper picked UConn to win it all, so I kept that.

 

[ucp990411]

Only strategy I ever use is to pick the good guys to win the last game and work my way backwards. Final score vs Arizona? 77-74. Won lots of $ doing this.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Gut instinct on one bracket. Second bracket is more rational. Attempt to see where there is a matchup problem that could cause an upset, like say: UConn vs Maryland last year (not that I picked that). Matchups are a big part of upsets.

I also like to key on on a 3-6 seed or two I think can do deep. Of course this year that included Arkansas. The reality is, if you stray too far from chalk you will lose. So I'll pick Loyola-Chicago to beat Ohio State but not Nova. It's a losing proposition to project high seeds into the second weekend.

 

[huskypantz]

You're welcome.

 

[August_West]

For one bracket, I went with my gut first impression.

Thats what I do.

Did it twice last night on two free Draft King money pools and somehow came up with some pretty different brackets, lol. Except obviously for UConn winning both.

 

[OkaForPrez]

First round target 7 upsets primarily relying on Vegas odds as the indicator.

Take all Vegas favorites in the 8/9. Look for the tightest lines in the 10/7 if no favorite 10 seed.

Then follow a similar strategy until you round out your 7 upsets.

From there go mostly chalk the rest of the way and depending on the size of the pool look for your value pick champion. If you feel strongly about a 1 seed pick them but make sure you have a final four outlier. Total of final 4 seeds should add up to around 9-10.

There are some good posts on the Reddit CBB forum which list key indicators, their ranges for the last 20 champs and who this years qualifiers are.

As an aside. UConn 14 and 11 break most of these conditionals as outliers. And this is the single biggest indicator of the existence of the mojo.

 

[Ctedgeman]

I usually don't have much of a strategy. I also usually wait if I can for the first four games if it is going to change my first round picks, but this year I didn't think it mattered. I would have made all the same picks on those matchups regardless.

However this year, I'm trying something a little bit new, which is if there is a matchup I'm stuck on and I think it'll be really close, I'm going with whoever has the better FT percentage.

 

[bendm]

not doing whatever happened here

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