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Lots of chatter about the polls regarding the upcoming election effecting the markets...something to think about. Anticipating higher income tax and corporate taxes could be leading the sell off. If my comment is too political, please just let me know and I will delete it to avoid going to the cess (we don’t want this thread going there).
 

XLCenterFan

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I swear Zoom hasn’t had a losing day since I bought it. What a no-brainer.
 

XLCenterFan

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Lots of chatter about the polls regarding the upcoming election effecting the markets...something to think about. Anticipating higher income tax and corporate taxes could be leading the sell off. If my comment is too political, please just let me know and I will delete it to avoid going to the cess (we don’t want this thread going there).
Some stocks simply won’t be effected. Some, like banks, may be. But that’s OK. Take the information you have and invest wisely. On the tax aspect, I’m an investor and even I think capital gains taxes should be raised. Having investment income is a ridiculous luxury.
 

McLovin

Gangstas, what's up?
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The market continues to defy all logic. I think some people are in for a big surprise when Q2 / Q3 earnings drop later this summer / this fall. Then again, this market is defying all logic so I am probably wrong.
 

the Q

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The market continues to defy all logic. I think some people are in for a big surprise when Q2 / Q3 earnings drop later this summer / this fall. Then again, this market is defying all logic so I am probably wrong.
I’m still happy to get T under 30 and PRU under 60.
 
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The market continues to defy all logic. I think some people are in for a big surprise when Q2 / Q3 earnings drop later this summer / this fall. Then again, this market is defying all logic so I am probably wrong.
Largest cash on sideline position ever. Pain trade has been higher to this point, market always seemingly inflicts max pain either direction (everyone bullish before drop).
 

McLovin

Gangstas, what's up?
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Largest cash on sideline position ever. Pain trade has been higher to this point, market always seemingly inflicts max pain either direction (everyone bullish before drop).
Same, I've got my biggest cash position ever. I've considered selling literally everything and then buying again when the bottom eventually falls out of the market.
 
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Same, I've got my biggest cash position ever. I've considered selling literally everything and then buying again when the bottom eventually falls out of the market.
I have my smallest cash position ever, but I am also considering selling everything. I’ve done incredibly well with this rally since March but I have a bad feeling about what’s ahead.
 

McLovin

Gangstas, what's up?
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The main thing that scares me is the underlying economic data not improving and Covid cases spiking again. States are starting to back track re-opening (Texas already did, I'm sure more will follow). While B2B companies may have some protection, any consumer business or financial services business could be in trouble.

Over 8% of all mortgages are in forbearance. At the height of the 2008/09 crisis delinquencies peaked at 10%. While forbearance is not technically the same as being delinquent, those mortgages are not being paid. And if 8% of mortgage holders can't afford to pay their mortgage, I doubt they have the money to spend on non-essentials.

During good times I don't care about underlying economic data (mortgage data, unemployment, consumer sentiment, GDP, etc.), I feel like it all washes out and the market can continue to hum. But with the underlying data remaining poor / worsening, I just don't understand how the stock market continues to go up like it has. Not saying stocks should go to 0, many businesses can weather this storm / the government will keep them propped up, but I feel it doesn't make sense that they are near all-time high levels, currently.
 

UConnSwag11

Storrs, CT The Mecca
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The market continues to defy all logic. I think some people are in for a big surprise when Q2 / Q3 earnings drop later this summer / this fall. Then again, this market is defying all logic so I am probably wrong.
It fetus logic bc this is another Fed induced bubble
 
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INO seems to have the inside track for a Corona vaccine - it has really surged this past week.
 

XLCenterFan

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I’m not selling a share. My stocks don’t really need a growing consumer base. If I owned stocks that needed people to spend more, that would be one thing, but the ones I own count on people spending differently and on people teleconferencing. How people spend and communicate is changing - there’s money to be made in that.
 
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Same, I've got my biggest cash position ever. I've considered selling literally everything and then buying again when the bottom eventually falls out of the market.
I’m not in cash but saying this General sentiment being poor has led to record levels of cash on the sideline. This is a large reason why the market has marched ahead. So much worry and market climbs a wall of worry.
 
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I’m not selling a share. My stocks don’t really need a growing consumer base. If I owned stocks that needed people to spend more, that would be one thing, but the ones I own count on people spending differently and on people teleconferencing. How people spend and communicate is changing - there’s money to be made in that.
Totally agree. so few stocks going up before today even but the ones that are just continue flying higher. Market pricing in new normal even before Covid spikes.
 
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So we agree.
I might have been salty, as I did the "smart" thing of taking meager profits when I had bought stocks like Amazon at $1600 and Tesla at $350 in March expecting a dead cat bounce and not expecting the market to go straight up to 27,500. Long term holders were rejoicing. Now they're like, why the heck did I hold? My point was, in a typical boring market you try to outsmart it to make money. Right now, you're best bet is just going along for the ride.
 

XLCenterFan

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Another reason I’m not worried...the daily top gainers always perform better than the inverse of the top losers. Today’s 3 biggest winners did 46, 41, and 28%. The 3 biggest losers lost 23, 23, and 22%. Make better picks. Myself included.
 
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Same, I've got my biggest cash position ever. I've considered selling literally everything and then buying again when the bottom eventually falls out of the market.
I’ve been inclined to agree with you but instead I’ve just sold some stuff off like some Amzn, TSLA etc. Fortunately I got out of FB after hours last night at 232. I doubled down on small to mid cap work from home beneficiaries recently and it’s paying off. DOCU, FSLY and LVGO were big today. I’d raise some cash but also transition more to companies with lesser than $50 B valuations and stay with what’s hot. With no sports for another month and many of us working from home, I think segments of the market will stay propped up because the stock market has become a big part of many people’s lives the past 3 months and I don’t think people are ready to leave that.
 

McLovin

Gangstas, what's up?
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I’m not selling a share. My stocks don’t really need a growing consumer base. If I owned stocks that needed people to spend more, that would be one thing, but the ones I own count on people spending differently and on people teleconferencing. How people spend and communicate is changing - there’s money to be made in that.
Yeah my whole portfolio and investment thesis is around B2B enterprise tech companies (CRM, QLYS, MITK) and technology driven consumer financials (SQ, PYPL). Have been in all of these companies, most of them for years, before the virus came around. I've been really recently interested in companies like Zoom, Okta, DocuSign, etc. but the valuations have kept me out.

Are you worried about the valuation of some of those WFH companies? My goal is to invest in companies that can return me 10X+ over the long run. But a company like Zoom's market cap is up to $70B trading over 100X revenue ($700M in revenue) it doesn't seem like it can really hit those types of returns by looking at other well established players in the space; enterprise tech companies like IBM is a $100B cap ($77B in revenue - 1.3X), Cisco $190B cap ($50B in revenue - 4X). Unless Zoom is going to be the next Microsoft...

Not saying you're wrong at all, everyone has their own style and pallet for risk, but just curious what you think about valuations / help me think differently about these companies to see the financial opportunity you see.
 
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Yeah my whole portfolio and investment thesis is around B2B enterprise tech companies (CRM, QLYS, MITK) and technology driven consumer financials (SQ, PYPL). Have been in all of these companies, most of them for years, before the virus came around. I've been really recently interested in companies like Zoom, Okta, DocuSign, etc. but the valuations have kept me out.

Are you worried about the valuation of some of those WFH companies? My goal is to invest in companies that can return me 10X+ over the long run. But a company like Zoom's market cap is up to $70B trading over 100X revenue ($700M in revenue) it doesn't seem like it can really hit those types of returns by looking at other well established players in the space; enterprise tech companies like IBM is a $100B cap ($77B in revenue - 1.3X), Cisco $190B cap ($50B in revenue - 4X). Unless Zoom is going to be the next Microsoft...

Not saying you're wrong at all, everyone has their own style and pallet for risk, but just curious what you think about valuations / help me think differently about these companies to see the financial opportunity you see.
The valuation thing is complex to say the least. When we look at forward looking earnings and valuations of companies like Zoom, they don’t make a lot of sense. Then again, as far as present value goes, all that matters is people keep buying it and pushing the price up. I sold Zoom 115 points ago because I thought it had its run. This week I sold the majority of Docusign fearing a pullback, when in reality it has never disappointed me. I remember a CEO years ago saying he never left a party that still had alcohol. I try to subscribe to that now. I’ll stay at the work from home party until the booze run out, but that could be months from now.
 

XLCenterFan

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Yeah my whole portfolio and investment thesis is around B2B enterprise tech companies (CRM, QLYS, MITK) and technology driven consumer financials (SQ, PYPL). Have been in all of these companies, most of them for years, before the virus came around. I've been really recently interested in companies like Zoom, Okta, DocuSign, etc. but the valuations have kept me out.

Are you worried about the valuation of some of those WFH companies? My goal is to invest in companies that can return me 10X+ over the long run. But a company like Zoom's market cap is up to $70B trading over 100X revenue ($700M in revenue) it doesn't seem like it can really hit those types of returns by looking at other well established players in the space; enterprise tech companies like IBM is a $100B cap ($77B in revenue - 1.3X), Cisco $190B cap ($50B in revenue - 4X). Unless Zoom is going to be the next Microsoft...

Not saying you're wrong at all, everyone has their own style and pallet for risk, but just curious what you think about valuations / help me think differently about these companies to see the financial opportunity you see.
I am not worried about the valuations of WFH companies. Even if the tide subsides somewhat, this is going to become a normalized trend IMO. But then again, I don't even look at numbers like that anymore. When I first started investing around 2006ish, I used to pour over numbers and consider them all. I found myself going crazy, and ultimately realized that the time I spent considering those numbers was not making me a better investor. Since then, I purely go off of where I see consumers moving towards. One summer, I was on vacation and looked down at the table...there were literally like 9 Apple devices sitting there. My wife and I bought a bunch of stock, and bingo! About a year ago I noticed people saying " just Venmo me," as they say "Google it," or "I need a Kleenex." When a brand starts becoming a verb, buy. I did, and bingo! When the pandemic started, my calendar became absolutely filled with Zoom meetings. I bought in, and bingo! Tracking consumer trends and discussing ideas with people is how I invest now. Sometimes I hit and sometimes I miss, but my hits outnumber my misses, and I'm OK with my current approach. I do always prefer dividend stocks, but that's not really "looking at numbers."
 

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