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Message: [QUOTE="Uconnfanatic, post: 2857233, member: 4150"] We're 37 years into a bond bull market so this final flight to safety run into Treasuries in the next six to nine months will be the last hurrah into a final secular top. In coming years, bonds will reverse much of the last 37 years of gains as inflation goes to ever higher levels in the 2020s. The disinflation cycle that began in the early 1980's is coming to an end. It will likely be followed by a short, sharp deflationary downturn next year to be followed by an inflation-driven recovery cycle. In this short-term deflationary downturn, we'll likely see some involuntary debt liquidation in the form of corporate bankruptcies and bank failures around the globe. The world's central banks will respond with even more QE than we've seen in this cycle and it will jumpstart the first inflation cycle we've seen since the 1970's. The next cycle will be led by a whole different set of stocks. Industrial and commodity stocks will lead the way, not growth stocks. The indexes that have done so well with disinflation and falling interest rates will be weighed down by last (this) cycle's leaders and their performance will greatly lag the industrial and commodity stocks. It is important to look forward and not extrapolate past trends when investing. Every cycle involves a change in leadership. Last cycle's winners become next cycle's losers. But first there is a last hurrah blow-off coming for this cycle's leaders that should carry tech and the indexes into year-end. At least that's my expectation. [/QUOTE]

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