Stetson Scouting Report

[Hey Adrien!]

Stetson (22-12)
#218 in KenPom
192nd in D1 experience
101st in minutes continuity (49.8%)​

100th in Offensive efficiency

• 37th w/ a 36.5 3P%; 67th w/ 41.8% of FGAs from three
  • All rotation players, save for their starting center, let it fly from three
• 35th w/ a 76.6 FT%
  • Both starting guards shoot 81%+
  • Their starting center was often hacked-for-strategy, with his 62 FT%
• 95th w/ a 52.5 2P%
• 106th in turnover prevention rate
• Low 200s in
  • A/FGM (48.7%)
  • FT rate
  • Offensive rebounding rate
• 287th in offensive tempo (18.4 seconds/possession

342nd in Defensive efficiency

• 25th in FT rate (basically, don’t expect a lot of fouls)
• Sub 200 in nearly every other defensive metric

Best wins

• Beat UCF 85-82 in the Donnie Jones Bowl
• Beat Charlotte 79-75

PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP:

Stephan Swanson 6’2 190 senior

Jalen Blackmon 6’3 181 junior; former 3-star recruit from GCU

Tristan Gross 6’6 175 junior

Alec Ogelsby 6’5 200 senior

Aubin Gateretse 6’11 215 junior


FREQUENTLY USED BENCH PIECES - 22.3% minutes (335th in nation)

Treyton Thompson 7’0 210 junior; former 3-star recruit from Minnesota

Cyncier Harrison 6’0 161 sophomore (hasn’t played last three games). In his place, 6’3 181 junior Giancarlo Vardez has played the backup ⅔

Entering his fifth year at Stetson, veteran head coach Donnie Jones is at his third Division 1 head coaching stop after the familiar coach spent six seasons at UCF following a three-year stint at Marshall. A Division 1 program since the 1971-72 season, Jones has led Stetson to its first ever NCAA Tournament, thanks to a lights-out 43 points performance from stud guard Jalen Blackmon in the title game over Austin Peay.

Like many successful mid-majors, Stetson wins due to their exceptional guard play led by veteran duo Jalen Blackmon and point guard Stephan Swanson.

Blackmon is a true scoring stud who can make a bucket from anywhere and break down the defense off-the-dribble. After ball-security issues earlier in his career, point guard Stephan Swenson has done a nice job limiting mistakes and shoots well enough to provide spacing for Blackmon to do his thing. He’s also Stetson’s best defensive guard.

Replacing Wheza Panzo, who transferred to Iona after finishing last season with one of the best three-point numbers in the nation, is starting 4-guard Alec Oglesby. Less of a true gunner like Panzo, Oglesby is an all-around two-way guard/wing who is arguably Stetson’s second best player and best overall defender.

The center rotation is a mix between rim protector and a more classic big in starter Aubin Gateretse and the more versatile, but less defensively responsible Treyton Thompson. With Thompson in the game, Jones has the ability to play 5-out basketball, opening up more space for Blackmon and others to score. However, with Thompson in, the already porous Stetson defense gets even more suspect. However, the 6’6 freshman 3-guard Tristan Gross has good length and his defense has gotten him more playing time recently, starting the last six games. He’s a low-usage 3-and-D spacer.

I can see this game starting off close, especially in the way Stetson can hit buckets, especially threes with ease. Looking back at UConn’s schedule, there’s a semblance between Stetson and Georgetown, in the way each team lets it fly from deep and struggle on defense. Also, Jalen Blackmon is like Georgetown’s Jayden Epps, as in both guys are “the alpha” on offense.

I’ll be in the building, either rooting them on from my cheap seats, or, like last year, sneaking down to more cushy spots. We’ll see.

For now, time to wind down and head to the woods of upstate NY for three days of rest and regeneration of the mojo.

Let’s go Huskies!!!

 

[aburks41]

Thanks as always for this stuff. Hopefully we got our slow start crap out of our system. We need to blitz these guys and not let them hang around by halftime.

 

[husky429]

They actually have decent size for this level of program. Should make the game a little bit fun.

Maybe a bold claim here, but I don't think the key to a win is stopping Blackmon from what I've seen (just highlights to be fair). I think you've gotta keep Swenson from passing with his strong hand--he stirs their drink. Put Hassan/Castle on Blackmon to stop the risk of a 40 point outburst, and let our presence at the rim do the rest.

Obviously should be an easy win, but you have to give everyone a serious scout and effort in March. Stifle the couplefew perimeter shooters and we have the size to stop everything else.

 

[Brochacho]

Thanks as always for this stuff. Hopefully we got our slow start crap out of our system. We need to blitz these guys and not let them hang around by halftime.

I agree. Can’t let them have any hope. I think we should get Karaban and Castle driving early and often - we get a lot of layups when they do.

 

[Tenspro2002]

I have a hard time seeing them slow us down. Their defense is bad and they haven't seen anything like us. The question will be can they sort of hang around for part of the half on the strength of hot shooting. That's going to be the difference between this game being either 45-35 at half or 45-20 at half.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

Replay of the ASUN championship game below if anyone is interested.



Their D is not good and seems especially weak inside, where Austin Peay just bullied whoever was there (in fairness, the dude is a LOAD). Seem to lose track of a lot of opponents and over-pursue on ball movement as well. I expect a big game from both Clingan and Samson, who should both really feast.

Not much creation outside of Blackmon on offense but they can shoot if left open. Hope we don’t come out flat on D and let them hang around. I expect we’ll just bully them inside on both ends and let them take contested threes. They’re just going to have fits dealing with our action and I expect quite a few lobs to Samson. Did I mention their D is really bad?

 

[shizzle787]

Doomed!

 

[aburks41]

Replay of the ASUN championship game below if anyone is interested.



Their D is not good and seems especially weak inside, where Austin Peay just bullied whoever was there (in fairness, the dude is a LOAD). Seem to lose track of a lot of opponents and over-pursue on ball movement as well. I expect a big game from both Clingan and Samson, who should both really feast.

Not much creation outside of Blackmon on offense but they can shoot if left open. Hope we don’t come out flat on D and let them hang around. I expect we’ll just bully them inside on both ends and let them take contested threes. They’re just going to have fits dealing with our action and I expect quite a few lobs to Samson. Did I mention their D is really bad?

Hahah oh man, they literally play zero defense. Watch from 36:50 to 39:55. They just part like the Red Sea. We should put up 120 on these guys on like 60% from the field.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

Hahah oh man, they literally play zero defense. Watch from 36:50 to 39:55. They just part like the Red Sea. We should put up 120 on these guys on like 60% from the field.

The crazy thing is I’m not sure whose defense was worse. Austin Peay’s PnR coverage was just laughably bad.

 

[Karmacop]

Their defense is bad and they haven't seen anything like us.

Not 100% true, they played Houston, who has a top-15 offense. And they got blown out by over 30. It was 19-6 Cougars after 10 minutes. Let's hope for the same on Friday.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Hahah oh man, they literally play zero defense. Watch from 36:50 to 39:55. They just part like the Red Sea. We should put up 120 on these guys on like 60% from the field.

Wow, they let anyone get into the middle of the lane against their zone. We have 4 guys who can all score in that area, and if they close it off, we can punish them with shooters. Or just throw it in to Clingan and let him get 11 offensive rebounds before scoring.

 

[aburks41]

Wow, they let anyone get into the middle of the lane against their zone. We have 4 guys who can all score in that area, and if they close it off, we can punish them with shooters. Or just throw it in to Clingan and let him get 11 offensive rebounds before scoring.

Should just be lob city to Clingan and Samson if they let us get that close to the basket

 

[Tenspro2002]

Not 100% true, they played Houston, who has a top-15 offense. And they got blown out by over 30. It was 19-6 Cougars after 10 minutes. Let's hope for the same on Friday.

That's interesting. They lost 79-48 to Houston, but actually shot well in the process. The problem is they had 23 turnovers and took only 41 shots.

Houston also shot well (not surprising). The pace was very slow. We also play slow, so that might be a decent benchmark, though I would expect more scoring on both sides. Incidentally, the Vegas lines suggest a score of around 85-59.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

Wow, they let anyone get into the middle of the lane against their zone. We have 4 guys who can all score in that area, and if they close it off, we can punish them with shooters. Or just throw it in to Clingan and let him get 11 offensive rebounds before scoring.

This feels very exploitable for Castle’s ability to create in the lane.

 

[NJHoops]

Stephan, Tristan, and Alec?

 

[MTBingNinja]

I agree. Can’t let them have any hope. I think we should get Karaban and Castle driving early and often - we get a lot of layups when they do.

Been wanting to have Castle drive to the hoop more when the team is sputtering.

Survive and advance