Stats Galore reprised - Uconn team year projections

[UcMiami]

So I though I would take another look at these stats
The initial numbers are from Jan 22 - 3 games ago are in Blue with the new projection in red:
Wins: 39: 3 times: 40: #1 No Change
Most Points: 3394: 2001-2: 3368: #2 3376 #2
Scoring Ave: 91.2: 1998-9: 84.2: #6 84.4 #6
Scoring Mgn: 35.4: 2001-2: 36.3: #1 35.9 #1
Scoring Def: 46.2: 2009-10: 47.9: #3 48.5 #3
% Defense: .300: 2009-10: .308: #3 .317 #4
FG made: 1278: 2001-2: 1282: #1 1291 #1
FT Made: 663: 1997-8: 520: #10 498 #13
FG percent: .539: 1999-00: .501 #11 .505 tied #8
3P Made: 325: 2012-3: 284: #2? 296 #2?
3P percent: .463: 1988-9: .344: --- .356 ---
FT percent: .765: 2010-11: .758: #4 .763 #3
Rebounds: 1776: 1994-5: 1740: #3 1698 #5
Reb Ave: 56.2: 1975-6: 43.5: #10 42.5 #13
Reb Mgn: 15.5: 2001-2: 9.42: --- 8.9 ---
Blocks: 250: 1994-5: 356: #1 344 #1
Steals: 477: 1997-8: 402: #8 418 tied #6
Assists: 846: 2001-2: 850: #1 880 #1

So ... with Uconn playing more zone and likely to continue to do so, the defensive numbers are dipping a little but with Bria and Stewart heating up and Kaleena rounding back into form the offensive numbers are king up particularly in percentage terms and with Moriah and Bria the assist numbers are going up as well. Blocks - they are at 189 through 22 games only 61 behind the Uconn record of 250 - they should reach that number by the end of the regular season and still have a potential 10 + games to add to the record. The NCAA records is also likely toast - Baylor at 310 in 2011-12 and Blocks/game Jackson State at 8.34 (Uconn currently at 8.59) The assists would also be an NCAA record which belongs to the 2001-2 team currently.

 

[UcMiami]

Just another thought on this question of shooting percentage declining and scoring decline. Uconn stands out as one of the only teams that shoots at or around 50% year after year and that hasn't changed with emphasis on this type of foul or really the 'quality' of the Uconn players from loaded to less so. The biggest distinction seems to be graduation of starting back court. I suspect that the real issue in WCBB regarding shooting percentage is more to do with the quality of shot being taken and the offense being run and not with the ability of the players themselves. The more I watch of teams other than Uconn play offense the more I am struck by the amount of one-on-one being played, the number of quick shots being taken, and the total break down of offense after the first option fails. Debbie/Beth can get all excited about Oregon having a 95 point scoring average, but they are doing it with a sub .400 shooting percentage and I don't think that is good for the game.

Uconn 2000-2013 field goal percentage: .539, .499, .520, .473, .492, .459, .475, .488, .494, .510, .511, .494, .477, .496

.473 is 2002-3 when the TASSK departed
.459 is 2004-5 when DT and Maria departed

 

[DobbsRover2]

In answer to the 3-FGs made question mark, yes indeed this year's team at 40-game average will almost certainly finish 2nd all-time behind last year's 325 with close to 300. The only other teams to break 250 were 2008-09 at 281 and 200-01 at 256. None of the '90s teams got that far into the 200s.

And it is nice that this year's team could be tops in not only assists and blocks but also in average for those two. Blocks should be a pretty sure thing, but in assists they're running slightly behind the 1994-95 team's 22.45 with a 22.00 average. Not a bad team to be jousting for the lead with.

 

[UcMiami]

Dobbs - thanks for the research - couldn't find a list of top ten in the Media Guide and was too lazy to do the search myself!
Agree on the averages and numbers - if they carry on the current form it would also be cool for MoJeff and Bria to match the Sue/DT backcourt as the only two with both in the 200 club. I think it is quite likely as part of the issue is shooting percentage of other players (the assistees) and that is trending upward with Stewart getting in a groove and KML looking ready to break out. While the NCAA final three games are generally tougher the first three rounds can be pretty explosive. And while Louisville and Rutgers are both good teams, their defenses this year have not been that strong - they are both winning with offensive output. We are also down to a single 'mercy' game - Cincinnati - where Geno is more likely to ease off the pressure earlier than in 'non-family' games

 

[UcMiami]

New update to the Stats projection in Green
The initial numbers are from Jan 22 - 3 games ago are in Blue with the new projection in red (Jan 29):
Wins: 39: 3 times: 40: #1 No Change No Change
Most Points: 3394: 2001-2: 3368: #2 3376 #2 3408 #1
Scoring Ave: 91.2: 1998-9: 84.2: #6 84.4 #6 85.2 #6
Scoring Mgn: 35.4: 2001-2: 36.3: #1 35.9 #1 37.8 #1
Scoring Def: 46.2: 2009-10: 47.9: #3 48.5 #3 47.4 #3
% Defense: .300: 2009-10: .308: #3 .317 #4 .309 #3
FG made: 1278: 2001-2: 1282: #1 1291 #1 1307 #1
FT Made: 663: 1997-8: 520: #10 498 #13 483 ---
FG percent: .539: 1999-00: .501 #11 .505 tied #8 .511 #4 T
3P Made: 325: 2012-3: 284: #2? 296 #2? 312 #2
3P percent: .463: 1988-9: .344: --- .356 --- .373 #10 T
FT percent: .765: 2010-11: .758: #4 .763 #3 .767 #1
Rebounds: 1776: 1994-5: 1740: #3 1698 #5 1695 #5
Reb Avg: 56.2: 1975-6: 43.5: #10 42.5 #13 42.4 #13
Reb Mgn: 15.5: 2001-2: 9.42: --- 8.9 --- 8.8 ---
Blocks: 250: 1994-5: 356: #1 344 #1 353 #1
Steals: 477: 1997-8: 402: #8 418 tied #6 417 #7
Assists: 846: 2001-2: 850: #1 880 #1 900 #1
Blocks Avg: 7.14 1994-5 _________8.83 #1
Assists Avg: 22.46 1994-5 ________22.50 #1
Assists/TO: ????????????_________1.97 #1?

So this is what I wrote on the last update 'with Uconn playing more zone and likely to continue to do so, the defensive numbers are dipping a little' and they go out and defensively crush the next two opponents to improve those numbers! I would say the old adage that Uconn doesn't play good zone defense is changing - with the back line providing the blocks, the front of the zone is playing very aggressively getting steals, deflections, and harassing shooters.
Offensively I was in better form - Bria and Stewart continue their hot hands and Kaleena is heating up as well. Add in Moriah going 11-12 in the last two games and they have raised the overall shooting by .010 and three point shooting by .029 in the last three weeks. Their assists per game have risen as well to Uconn record territory. The block numbers (total and average) are in NCAA record territory by a good margin and with 212 YTD they are only 38 away from the Uconn record - they could pass that number in their 29th game at the current rate. The total assists number would also be an NCAA record
I added a few stats at the bottom including A/TO - I am pretty sure the team number this year blows away anything that has come before - it certainly does for recent seasons including the two in the 90 game win streak with Maya and Tina and 2000-1 but I cannot find complete year box scores for 1995 and 2001-2 which might be the best previously. But given the TO rate of the top assist makers on those teams I think it is likely they were in the 1.5 range like other good teams. The NCAA record book only has the stat since 2008 with Baylor at 1.58 in 2013 being the best recorded. The only two players on the team with an A/TO rate below 1.0 is Morgan (8/11) and Kiah (20/22.) Bria, Kaleena, and Saniya all stand well above 2.0 and Moriah is above 3.0.
On Edit - just found 2001-2 full year stats 846 assists/567 TO = 1.49. I suspect this could well be an NCAA record pace Uconn is on.

 

[VAMike23]

So this is what I wrote on the last update 'with Uconn playing more zone and likely to continue to do so, the defensive numbers are dipping a little' and they go out and defensively crush the next two opponents to improve those numbers! I would say the old adage that Uconn doesn't play good zone defense is changing - with the back line providing the blocks, the front of the zone is playing very aggressively getting steals, deflections, and harassing shooters.
Offensively I was in better form - Bria and Stewart continue their hot hands and Kaleena is heating up as well. Add in Moriah going 11-12 in the last two games and they have raised the overall shooting by .010 and three point shooting by .029 in the last three weeks. Their assists per game have risen as well to Uconn record territory. The block numbers (total and average) are in NCAA record territory by a good margin and with 212 YTD they are only 38 away from the Uconn record - they could pass that number in their 29th game at the current rate. The total assists number would also be an NCAA record
I added a few stats at the bottom including A/TO - I am pretty sure the team number this year blows away anything that has come before - it certainly does for recent seasons including the two in the 90 game win streak with Maya and Tina and 2000-1 but I cannot find complete year box scores for 1995 and 2001-2 which might be the best previously. But given the TO rate of the top assist makers on those teams I think it is likely they were in the 1.5 range like other good teams. The NCAA record book only has the stat since 2008 with Baylor at 1.58 in 2013 being the best recorded. The only two players on the team with an A/TO rate below 1.0 is Morgan (8/11) and Kiah (20/22.) Bria, Kaleena, and Saniya all stand well above 2.0 and Moriah is above 3.0.
On Edit - just found 2001-2 full year stats 846 assists/567 TO = 1.49. I suspect this could well be an NCAA record pace Uconn is on.

I mentioned in an earlier post that our Big 3 are on pace to each reach 100 blocks or more, if we play 40 games. If we play 39, then one of them is projected at *only* 98 blks , or something like that, with the other two over 100 still. ANYWAYYY, this would be a ridiculous feat if they pull it off! Can you imagine having 3 x 100 blks?

I would imagine that record might stand for a very, very long time.

 

[MilfordHusky]

I mentioned in an earlier post that our Big 3 are on pace to each reach 100 blocks or more, if we play 40 games. If we play 39, then one of them is projected at *only* 98 blks , or something like that, with the other two over 100 still. ANYWAYYY, this would be a ridiculous feat if they pull it off! Can you imagine having 3 x 100 blks?

I would imagine that record might stand for a very, very long time.

If we get A'ja Wilson, it could last an entire year.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Any stat having to do with turnovers has some issues since the UConn record books don't provide TO season data and the "team record" for the total was probably set by a 2-8 record 1974-75 team that played only ten games and thus had the fewest. They did not record TOs for players back then though, and may not have for teams either. Without the total of course we can't determine the average.

FWIW, the 1994-95 had a large amount of assists on the year but also were kind of TO prone, and in the nine games of the two tourneys they had a 1.12 A\TO ratio. On the season, the players racked up 786 assists and 636 TOs for a 1.23 A\TO ratio, and if you throw in the usual season's average of 7 team turnovers to make the total around 643, the ratio is 1.22. My guess is that few if any of the 1990s teams did better. Jen was 1.87 that year, and Pam Webber was even more of a dish at a fantastic 2.21. Kara was at 0.63, and Rebecca was at 1.43

 

[UcMiami]

Any stat having to do with turnovers has some issues since the UConn record books don't provide TO season data and the "team record" for the total was probably set by a 2-8 record 1974-75 team that played only ten games and thus had the fewest. They did not record TOs for players back then though, and may not have for teams either. Without the total of course we can't determine the average.

FWIW, the 1994-95 had a large amount of assists on the year but also were kind of TO prone, and in the nine games of the two tourneys they had a 1.12 A\TO ratio. On the season, the players racked up 786 assists and 636 TOs for a 1.23 A\TO ratio, and if you throw in the usual season's average of 7 team turnovers to make the total around 643, the ratio is 1.22. My guess is that few if any of the 1990s teams did better. Jen was 1.87 that year, and Pam Webber was even more of a dish at a fantastic 2.21. Kara was at 0.63, and Rebecca was at 1.43

Yeah - the turnover stats are relatively recent additions to BB. But if you can find the cumulative stat page for the year you can calculate the A/TO ratio - my problem is that some of the links to stats in the history section of the Uconn site are broken including the stats for 2001-2. I did finally final that stat page going to the 'media' section. Considering both DT and Sue got over 200 assist that year I figured that would be perhaps the best year in A/TO especially since they both were at 2.5 A/TO. But the rest of the team was at basically 1.0 and represented half the total assists which brought the team number way down. This year Jefferson is at 3.0+ and Hartley is around 2.5 and they represent again about half the total. The difference is the rest of the team is doing much better - Saniya is at 3.0+, Kaleena at 2.5, Stewart and Banks at around 2.0, and Stef while in a bit of a turnover funk is at 1.37
The NCAA record book has A/TO only back to 2008 - which does cover Vandersloot's time at Gonzaga where she put up impressive numbers - 2011 her senior year she averaged 10.2 assists per game at a 3.08 A/TO rate and the team led D1 but at only a 1.51 ratio.