Stain's Depth Chart Recruiting Analysis - Season Opener

[Stainmaster]

This seemed to go over pretty well when I did this last fall, so I figured it would be interesting to revisit it.

Players are sorted by which head coach they committed under, as well as which "tier" their best set of offers came from: P5 schools, G5 schools, FCS schools, or just UConn. Transfers and JUCOs are listed by the offers they received when UConn was recruiting them at this stage, not previously coming out of high school.

QB
David Pindell, Sr. - Edsall recruit (4 G5 offers: Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, Kent State, Temple)
Marvin Washington, R-Fr. - Edsall recruit (11 G5 offers: Bowling Green, Coastal Carolina, Florida Atlantic, Georgia Southern, Kent State, Old Dominion, Southern Mississippi, Toledo, Troy, Utah State)

RB
Zavier Scott, R-Fr. - Edsall recruit (1 P5 offer: Syracuse)
Kevin Mensah, So. - Edsall recruit (1 FCS offer: Bryant)

WR
Hergy Mayala, Sr. - Diaco recruit (1 P5 offer: Rutgers)
Kyle Buss, R-Sr. - Edsall recruit (Robert Morris transfer)
Tyraiq Beals, Sr. - Diaco recruit (only offered by UConn)
Donovan Williams, Jr. - Diaco recruit (5 FCS offers: Delaware, Fordham, James Madison, Richmond, William & Mary)
Heron Maurisseau, Fr. - Edsall recruit (only offered by UConn)
Keyion Dixon, R-So. - Diaco recruit (2 G5 offers: Massachusetts, Temple)

TE
Tyler Davis, R-Jr. - Diaco recruit (2 G5 offers: Buffalo, Old Dominion)
Aaron McLean, Sr. - Diaco recruit (2 FCS offers: Bryant, Holy Cross)

LT
Ryan Van Demark, So. - Diaco recruit (5 FCS offers: Fordham, Liberty, New Hampshire, Richmond, Villanova)
Noel Brouse, R-So. - Diaco recruit (1 P5 offer: Syracuse)

LG
Cam DeGeorge, R-So. - Diaco recruit (3 P5 offers: North Carolina State, Rutgers, Syracuse)
Nino Leone, R-So. - Diaco recruit (only offered by UConn)

C
Ryan Crozier, R-Sr. - Diaco recruit (4 G5 offers: Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Houston, Miami (OH))
Stanley Hubbard, R-Fr. - Edsall recruit (11 G5 offers: Air Force, Army, Bowling Green, Charlotte, Coastal Carolina, Marshall, Navy, Nevada, Ohio, Old Dominion, Temple)

RG
Christian Haynes, Fr. - Edsall recruit (1 P5 offer: Virginia)
Brian Cespedes, R-Jr. - Diaco recruit (only offered by UConn)

RT
Matt Peart, R-Jr. - Diaco recruit (only offered by UConn)
James Tunstall, R-Fr. - Diaco recruit (2 G5 offers: Bowling Green, Toledo)

DE
James Atkins, R-Sr. - Diaco recruit (only offered by UConn)
Jonathan Pace, Fr. - Edsall recruit (1 G5 offer: Army)
Carlton Steer, Sr. - Edsall recruit (Central Connecticut State transfer)

DT
Travis Jones, Fr. - Edsall recruit (3 P5 offers: Boston College, Pittsburgh, Rutgers)
Kevin Murphy, R-Jr. - Diaco recruit (4 G5 offers: Army, Cincinnati, Middle Tennessee State, North Texas)

DE
Caleb Thomas, R-Fr. - Edsall recruit (2 G5 offers: Army, Nevada)
Ryan Fines, R-Jr. - Edsall recruit (Miami transfer)
Lwal Uguak, Fr. - Edsall recruit (1 G5 offer: Fresno State)

OLB
Darrian Beavers, So. - Edsall recruit (5 G5 offers: Army, Ball State, Bowling Green, Georgia State, Miami (OH))
Eddie Hahn, R-So. - Diaco recruit (1 P5 offer: North Carolina State)

MLB
Kevon Jones, Fr. - Edsall recruit (1 P5 offer: Boston College)
Santana Sterling, Sr. - Edsall recruit (JUCO transfer - only offered by UConn)

OLB
Eli Thomas, R-Jr. - Edsall recruit (JUCO transfer - 3 FCS offers: Central Connecticut State, Sacred Heart, Wagner)
Ryan Gilmartin, R-So. - Diaco recruit (1 P5 offer: Wake Forest)

Husky
Ian Swenson, R-Fr. - Diaco recruit (2 P5 offers: Iowa State, Louisville)
Marshé Terry, R-Jr. - Diaco recruit (1 FCS offer: Fordham)

CB
Tahj Herring-Wilson, R-So. - Diaco recruit (2 P5 offers: Vanderbilt, Virginia)
Shamel Lazarus, Fr. - Edsall recruit (2 P5 offers: Purdue, Rutgers)

S
Tyler Coyle, R-So. - Diaco recruit (2 G5 offers: Massachusetts, Temple)
Jalon Ferrell, Fr. - Edsall recruit (3 FCS offers: Florida A&M, Morgan State, North Carolina Central)

S
Omar Fortt, So. - Diaco recruit (2 G5 offers: Army, Navy)
O'Neil Robinson, Fr. - Edsall recruit (1 G5 offer: Army)

CB
Keyshawn Paul, Fr. - Edsall recruit (1 FCS offer: Duquesne)
Ryan Carroll, Fr. - Edsall recruit (3 G5 offers: Eastern Michigan, Ohio, Temple)

 

[Stainmaster]

Quick takeaways:

• 46/46 players on this two-deep are on scholarship.
• 45/46 were on scholarship when they got here; Carlton Steer earned his this past camp.
• We are split exactly down the middle when it comes to Edsall's recruits versus Diaco's: 23 apiece. In terms of starters, Diaco recruited 12/22 and Edsall 10/22 (offense - 7 Diaco and 4 Edsall, defense - 6 Edsall and 5 Diaco).
  
• Out of the 45 players who arrived on scholarship: 12/45 had at least one P5 offer, 16/45 topped out with at least one G5 offer, 8/45 topped out with at least one FCS offer, and 9/45's only offer came from UConn. Narrowing that down to starters, it becomes 8/22 P5, 7/22 G5, 3/22 FCS, and 4/22 just UConn.
  
• Out of our 12 players who chose us over at least one P5 program, 7 were recruited by Diaco and 5 by Edsall. For the 16 who chose us over G5 programs, 9 are Edsall's and 7 Diaco's. For the 8 who chose us over FCS programs, both coaches recruited 4 each. For the 9 who had no other DI offers, 5 were recruited by Diaco and 4 by Edsall.
  
• Top overlaps: Army 7, Temple 5, Bowling Green 4, Rutgers 4

 

[Stainmaster]

Compared to the 2-deep from the last UCF game in November 2017:

• Percentage of 2-deep players with at least one P5 offer: 25% --> 26.7% (starters: 28.6% --> 36.4%)
• Percentage of 2-deep players who topped out with at least one G5 offer: 34.1% --> 35.5% (starters: 28.6% --> 31.8%)
• Percentage of 2-deep players who topped out with at least one FCS offer: 18.2% --> 17.8% (starters: 23.8% --> 13.6%)
• Percentage of 2-deep players whose only DI offer came from UConn: 22.7% --> 20% (starters: 19% --> 18.2%)

Between now and then, we've experienced a 10% drop in starters whose best other offers came from FCS schools, and they've been pretty much unanimously replaced by players whose best offers came from P5 or G5 schools.

 

[Nostical]

Thanks. Lots of good work Stain but there’s one subjective variable which may overshadow the analysis. It’s the complete about face in attitude and commitment from the players—regardless of who recruited them. Even 5 stars with a lack of cohesiveness and sub par motivation can underachieve.We’ll be bringing a different attitude and higher level of execution to the field on Thursday. That’s what’s most important.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

May be another rough year for our DBs but they should be a strength in a year or two.

 

[SubbaBub]

ut of the 45 players who arrived on scholarship: 12/45 had at least one P5 offer, 16/45 topped out with at least one G5 offer, 8/45 topped out with at least one FCS offer, and 9/45's only offer came from UConn. Narrowing that down to starters, it becomes 8/22 P5, 7/22 G5, 3/22 FCS, and 4/22 just UConn.

Combining the FCS/UConn only numbers because I doubt the FCS offer played a factor and assume they all picked UConn early (or were found). The hit rate for two deep players is 67% from P5 commits, 44% from G5, and % on UConn (diamonds in the rough).

The answer is obvious. Get in the p5 mix (even against the dregs), be more selective of G5 players in favor of more unknown players. The hit rate might be lower but I think the upside in attitude might be better. If you showed the names, it might say the opposite but IMO players with only G5 offers are mostly known entities. The have a wide notice, but few quality takers. The one exception would be quarterback. Why we aren't staking out MAC coaching staffs looking at QB's in their own geographic area is beyond me.

Top overlaps: Army 7, Temple 5, Bowling Green 4, Rutgers 4

Eww, that is harsh.

 

[blue93]

Thanks. Lots of good work Stain but there’s one subjective variable which may overshadow the analysis. It’s the complete about face in attitude and commitment from the players—regardless of who recruited them. Even 5 stars with a lack of cohesiveness and sub par motivation can underachieve.We’ll be bringing a different attitude and higher level of execution to the field on Thursday. That’s what’s most important.

Who cares? He must have put a lot of work into it and wasn’t drawing any conclusions from it. Its an interesting, objective excercise.

 

[noeynox]

It looks like this years Dback recruits passed by his recruits from last year at the positions.

 

[Nostical]

He must have put a lot of work into it. Its an interesting, objective excercise.

Of course it was and I commend the effort. I simply believe subjectivity also plays a role in ultimate success.

 

[Pudge]

It’s GREAT information and provides subjective insight

But ... this isn’t an efficient market. Statistics. Full information not available and pricing (ratings).

I just got through reading the oodles of information Phil Steele puts in his book. Notably, there’s not a UCF nor USF nor Houston nor Memphis Lineman that gets more than a PS230 (for instance). Ours? Peart is like PS468 and Van de Mark PS474. Travis Jones? Like PS360.

My point: Ratings, Stars, Offers, Buzz

Whether its Quebec, Metro Boston, Connecticut, Prep Schools, Greater NYC. No recruiting analysts ever place UConn Football on a scale that makes sense. (Here comes the Underrecruited FCS etc comments)

We can WIN in this conference with these kids. Thank God we have Edsall et al doing the evaluation and NOT Disco Diaco.

 

[Stainmaster]

It’s GREAT information and provides subjective insight

But ... this isn’t an efficient market. Statistics. Full information not available and pricing (ratings).

I just got through reading the oodles of information Phil Steele puts in his book. Notably, there’s not a UCF nor USF nor Houston nor Memphis Lineman that gets more than a PS230 (for instance). Ours? Peart is like PS468 and Van de Mark PS474. Travis Jones? Like PS360.

My point: Ratings, Stars, Offers, Buzz

Whether its Quebec, Metro Boston, Connecticut, Prep Schools, Greater NYC. No recruiting analysts ever place UConn Football on a scale that makes sense. (Here comes the Underrecruited FCS etc comments)

We can WIN in this conference with these kids. Thank God we have Edsall et al doing the evaluation and NOT Disco Diaco.

I didn’t mention rankings or star ratings once. I merely compiled information about offers extended.

 

[whaler11]

I love the strawmen that come out on this topic.

People say offers matter and someone goes into how rankings don’t matter. Yeah nobody said they did.

 

[Pudge]

It’s you

StrawStrawMan

Please articulate your position. Because as someone who talks markets ... what is the efficacy of reporting Offers. Where does that come from. How accurate. 40 times. Stars. Totally biased evaluations based on what Teams sites spend the most dollars on a network. In the end ... it’s just a placebo. I grant you - like Hoop - the top 200 kids are probably correctly rated 96.8% of the time. There are 3250 FBS Scholarships available.

We - UCONN - have one of the most interesting Programs in America. Because? Randy Edsall has to develop relationships, evaluate and choose (character included) hugely without peer reviewed sources. When you go to Quebec or Nashua HS or Far Rockaway ... you’re not seeing 5 other University recruitment officers often.

The information was well put together. I simply state that NFL players have come out of THIS Program in some of the most unique ways possible.

 

[whaler11]

It’s you

StrawStrawMan

Please articulate your position. Because as someone who talks markets ... what is the efficacy of reporting Offers. Where does that come from. How accurate. 40 times. Stars. Totally biased evaluations based on what Teams sites spend the most dollars on a network. In the end ... it’s just a placebo. I grant you - like Hoop - the top 200 kids are probably correctly rated 96.8% of the time. There are 3250 FBS Scholarships available.

We - UCONN - have one of the most interesting Programs in America. Because? Randy Edsall has to develop relationships, evaluate and choose (character included) hugely without peer reviewed sources. When you go to Quebec or Nashua HS or Far Rockaway ... you’re not seeing 5 other University recruitment officers often.

The information was well put together. I simply state that NFL players have come out of THIS Program in some of the most unique ways possible.

It must be quite a business class you teach where you teach that if data isn’t perfect then you ignore it.

No crap it’s not perfect but that doesn’t mean it’s meaningless.

Just because Baker Mayfield was a walk-on doesn’t mean offers don’t matter when looking at the big picture.

Keep arguing that beating UMass and Central for players will build you a better roster than beating Syracuse and Rutgers.

It’s patently absurd to anyone who isn’t trying to create an alternate reality.

 

[Excalibur]

It’s you

StrawStrawMan

Please articulate your position. Because as someone who talks markets ... what is the efficacy of reporting Offers. Where does that come from. How accurate. 40 times. Stars. Totally biased evaluations based on what Teams sites spend the most dollars on a network. In the end ... it’s just a placebo. I grant you - like Hoop - the top 200 kids are probably correctly rated 96.8% of the time. There are 3250 FBS Scholarships available.

We - UCONN - have one of the most interesting Programs in America. Because? Randy Edsall has to develop relationships, evaluate and choose (character included) hugely without peer reviewed sources. When you go to Quebec or Nashua HS or Far Rockaway ... you’re not seeing 5 other University recruitment officers often.

The information was well put together. I simply state that NFL players have come out of THIS Program in some of the most unique ways possible.

Yes, there is an assumption that the recruiting services are accurate when reporting offers. They generally get that info from the players and require it to be backed by a copy of the offer letter, so that's a pretty safe assumption.

The point is that if multiple coaching staffs think a kid can play, it's more likely that the kid can play. It's not a difficult point, and it's amazing how many people are deliberately obtuse when confronted with it . . .

 

[Excalibur]

Quick takeaways:

• 46/46 players on this two-deep are on scholarship.
• 45/46 were on scholarship when they got here; Carlton Steer earned his this past camp.
• We are split exactly down the middle when it comes to Edsall's recruits versus Diaco's: 23 apiece. In terms of starters, Diaco recruited 12/22 and Edsall 10/22 (offense - 7 Diaco and 4 Edsall, defense - 6 Edsall and 5 Diaco).
  
• Out of the 45 players who arrived on scholarship: 12/45 had at least one P5 offer, 16/45 topped out with at least one G5 offer, 8/45 topped out with at least one FCS offer, and 9/45's only offer came from UConn. Narrowing that down to starters, it becomes 8/22 P5, 7/22 G5, 3/22 FCS, and 4/22 just UConn.
  
• Out of our 12 players who chose us over at least one P5 program, 7 were recruited by Diaco and 5 by Edsall. For the 16 who chose us over G5 programs, 9 are Edsall's and 7 Diaco's. For the 8 who chose us over FCS programs, both coaches recruited 4 each. For the 9 who had no other DI offers, 5 were recruited by Diaco and 4 by Edsall.
  
• Top overlaps: Army 7, Temple 5, Bowling Green 4, Rutgers 4

If I had time I'd do this, but I'd love to see the % of each recruiting class that made the 2-deep. I'd imagine that for 2014 and 2015, it's brutally low. Diaco's last class in 2016 had some players but didn't fill the most pressing roster needs and didn't even fill the scholarships available that year.

 

[Hornet22]

Yes, there is an assumption that the recruiting services are accurate when reporting offers. They generally get that info from the players and require it to be backed by a copy of the offer letter, so that's a pretty safe assumption.

The point is that if multiple coaching staffs think a kid can play, it's more likely that the kid can play. It's not a difficult point, and it's amazing how many people are deliberately obtuse when confronted with it . . .

Here we go again.
Unfortunately in this day and age multiple kids lying about offers coupled with coaches offering because dodo brain school over yonder offered (not because they’ve evaluated)- it’s kinda hard to use the amount of offers a kid has as a solid metric.
What I believe tends to happen is if you take a kid with solid speed/size and basic football fundamentals and place him in an Alabama type environment they just get better by playing against solid comp every day.
There are kids on our roster that if surrounded by lots of good players on the field ala Alabama they could fit in. They could actually get on the field and because they have awesome complimentary pieces can hold their own at their position.

Example- put Zavier Scott in their backfield for an entire spring/ Fall camp running behind their line and playing against teams that aren’t as good, he would do ok.
But he’s at UConn. So....

Take Jalen Hurts and put him on some of Diaco’s teams and he doesn’t quite look like Jalen Hurts does he? Who is he throwing to? Who’s blocking for him etc.

 

[Stainmaster]

Here we go again.
Unfortunately in this day and age multiple kids lying about offers coupled with coaches offering because dodo brain school over yonder offered (not because they’ve evaluated)- it’s kinda hard to use the amount of offers a kid has as a solid metric.

We live in a day and age when coaches can interact with kids when they post about their offers. They’re more verifiable now than ever before.

As for the practices of coaches offering as copycats...is this anything beyond your own personal suspicion?

 

[CTBasketball]

Good summary.

To me it seems like Edsall wanted to go out and get his type of guys on defense. Hopefully this young group learns up and can become a top defense in the AAC in two or so years.

Can’t get discouraged and need to progress throughout the season.

 

[Hornet22]

We live in a day and age when coaches can interact with kids when they post about their offers. They’re more verifiable now than ever before.

As for the practices of coaches offering as copycats...is this anything beyond your own personal suspicion?

Uh, have you heard Edsall and many other coaches talking about the uncommitable offer? Or was that me just hearing things?

 

[Pudge]

Yes, there is an assumption that the recruiting services are accurate when reporting offers. They generally get that info from the players and require it to be backed by a copy of the offer letter, so that's a pretty safe assumption.

The point is that if multiple coaching staffs think a kid can play, it's more likely that the kid can play. It's not a difficult point, and it's amazing how many people are deliberately obtuse when confronted with it . . .

Sure ...

Do you really think these recruiting services are like ... the Appraisal Industry? With Standards.

I have watched these services since about 1998. They are extraordinarily biased by ... MONEY. When we were in the same league as Rutgers, we could see (without a doubt) that the online services (which may have changed ownership or names in 10 years ... but not practices) always tilted to Rutgers POV and not the UConn Rivals/Scout/etc. Because more paid subscriptions. They pump up and put the arrogance in ... wherever it serves their monetary interests. Sorry. It is too easy an answer; but it is the truth. I do not think they gather every Offer. Nope. If Johnny B says he has 19 ... they stop listening at 7.

Multiple Coaching Staffs ... still do not see most of the kids in our region. It is the classic 80/20 rule. They do not scour the play where they haven't gotten much talent in the past. Hence ... far more than other efficient markets one could name, you have Matt Pearts, Scott Lutrus, Ryan Van de Mark, Byron Jones etc. This is easy ... and YES ... you can use a Eugene Fama argument on efficiency of information. Something they never teach at Law School.

And whaler11 ... every time someone disagrees or makes a Contra point ... it is rather a small person to pull out your bag of personal insults.

 

[whaler11]

Sure ...

Do you really think these recruiting services are like ... the Appraisal Industry? With Standards.

I have watched these services since about 1998. They are extraordinarily biased by ... MONEY. When we were in the same league as Rutgers, we could see (without a doubt) that the online services (which may have changed ownership or names in 10 years ... but not practices) always tilted to Rutgers POV and not the UConn Rivals/Scout/etc. Because more paid subscriptions. They pump up and put the arrogance in ... wherever it serves their monetary interests. Sorry. It is too easy an answer; but it is the truth. I do not think they gather every Offer. Nope. If Johnny B says he has 19 ... they stop listening at 7.

Multiple Coaching Staffs ... still do not see most of the kids in our region. It is the classic 80/20 rule. They do not scour the play where they haven't gotten much talent in the past. Hence ... far more than other efficient markets one could name, you have Matt Pearts, Scott Lutrus, Ryan Van de Mark, Byron Jones etc. This is easy ... and YES ... you can use a Eugene Fama argument on efficiency of information. Something they never teach at Law School.

And whaler11 ... every time someone disagrees or makes a Contra point ... it is rather a small person to pull out your bag of personal insults.

Then don’t play the business academic genius card and keep posting what you want reality to be because you don’t like actual reality.

Sorry not sorry - your position is idiotic.

 

[UConnJim]

We all know the issues. The P5 does not recruit heavily in our recruiting territory as the kids are not as developed and there are not as many of them. The key to recruiting at UConn is projecting growth and development and recruiting athletes with speed. Many of our best players in the past have been undersized high school athletes with speed that grew and developed in their 5 years at UConn. Diaco did not understand the model and recruited larger players and he did not recruit speed. He was more apt to go after a slow 240 pound player than a fast 200 pound player.

Which brings me to this year's 2-deep. Edsall's past success came from developing players, not from recruiting players that were ready to play as true freshmen. The number of true and redshirt freshmen on the 2-deep has to give everybody an uneasy feeling about this year.

 

[uconnfan68]

We all know the issues. The P5 does not recruit heavily in our recruiting territory as the kids are not as developed and there are not as many of them. The key to recruiting at UConn is projecting growth and development and recruiting athletes with speed. Many of our best players in the past have been undersized high school athletes with speed that grew and developed in their 5 years at UConn. Diaco did not understand the model and recruited larger players and he did not recruit speed. He was more apt to go after a slow 240 pound player than a fast 200 pound player.

Which brings me to this year's 2-deep. Edsall's past success came from developing players, not from recruiting players that were ready to play as true freshmen. The number of true and redshirt freshmen on the 2-deep has to give everybody an uneasy feeling about this year.

Yup, Edsall wants speed, at every position. Yup, a lot of youngsters could mean disaster this year. Praying for zero serious injuries, and hoping they grow up fast.

 

[DoctorWho85]

Yup, Edsall wants speed, at every position. Yup, a lot of youngsters could mean disaster this year. Praying for zero serious injuries, and hoping they grow up fast.

Agreed. Speed is probably one of the top traits this team needs. The AAC has so many high powered offenses that being a step slower (as we saw last year with the DB's) will lead to disastrous events on the field