Spread up to -5.5

[Jerry1714]

Yet money seems to be pouring in on St. Joes.

Good sign

 

[CTGoonie]

If the money is pouring in for St. Joe's why did the spread go from 4.5 to 5.5? Wouldn't it go the other way?

 

[Jerry1714]

If the money is pouring in for St. Joe's why did the spread go from 4.5 to 5.5? Wouldn't it go the other way?

That is not always how it works, its called reverse line movement, probably a ton of "public" money on St. Joes but the big boys on UConn.

Or vegas has no issue taking a side with UConn and are trying to attract even more St. Joes money

 

[Tenspro2002]

Whichever way the money is coming in, it's usually a good sign when the spread drifts in your favor.

 

[Sportsman5]

That is not always how it works, its called reverse line movement, probably a ton of "public" money on St. Joes but the big boys on UConn.

Or vegas has no issue taking a side with UConn and are trying to attract even more St. Joes money

that makes sense. I think the big gamblers know how much free throw shooting at the end of the game affects the spread. We are a great free throw shooting team. A 3 point game has a good chance at ending with a 5-7 point win if the team ahead can make their free throws. I also swear that in NCAA tourney games teams still foul with like 6 seconds left when they are down 5 just because a win means so much more in the tourney than the regular season and they will extend the game just to have a very tiny chance of winning. If my perception is true than that increases the spread at the end more than in a regular season game.

 

[Palatine]

If it goes from -4.5 to -5.5 than Vegas want to entice more money to St. Joe's, so the UConn money is pouring in.


If money was pouring in on St Joe's, Vegas would want more UConn money and the spread would lessen.

 

[Jerry1714]

If it goes from -4.5 to -5.5 than Vegas want to entice more money to St. Joe's, so the UConn money is pouring in.


If money was pouring in on St Joe's, Vegas would want more UConn money and the spread would lessen.

Look at the numbers, its not a trick, they are available to anyone.

It is clear gambling is not something you are familiar with

Take a look, educate yourself.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college...icut.cfm/date/3-20-14/time/1855/linechanges/y

Also, a google search of reverse line movement would help you a lot.

 

[Matt (Chicago)]

If it goes from -4.5 to -5.5 than Vegas want to entice more money to St. Joe's, so the UConn money is pouring in.


If money was pouring in on St Joe's, Vegas would want more UConn money and the spread would lessen.

You couldnt be more wrong. Take look at this... 57% of the public on St. Joes, yet the line is moving in UConn's favor. Any other brilliant insights?

http://pregame.com/sportsbook_spy/default.aspx

 

[Jerry1714]

You couldnt be more wrong. Take look at this... 57% of the public on St. Joes, yet the line is moving in UConn's favor. Any other brilliant insights?

http://pregame.com/sportsbook_spy/default.aspx

Guys like Palatine are why Vegas continues building casino after casino

 

[Palatine]

You couldnt be more wrong. Take look at this... 57% of the public on St. Joes, yet the line is moving in UConn's favor. Any other brilliant insights?

http://pregame.com/sportsbook_spy/default.aspx

It the money, the dollar amount is all that counts. That's what makes the math work. That's the only way it can work

 

[Jerry1714]

It the money, the dollar amount is all that counts. That's what makes the math work. That's the only way it can work

If you do not think Vegas takes positions on games you are more lost then I thought.

Public money always is a higher amount in terms of volume then sharp, especially in events like the tournament. Public money is what drives these percentages.

I can sit here and explain it to you all day, but by your initial post it seems like that may be like trying to cross the Atlantic on an inner tube.

 

[minidarren]

If you do not think Vegas takes positions on games you are more lost then I thought.

Public money always is a higher amount in terms of volume then sharp, especially in events like the tournament. Public money is what drives these percentages.

I can sit here and explain it to you all day, but by your initial post it seems like that may be like trying to cross the Atlantic on an inner tube.

What's wrong with crossing the Atlantic on an inner tube?

 

[Matt (Chicago)]

It the money, the dollar amount is all that counts. That's what makes the math work. That's the only way it can work

You're clearly way out of your league here, its not black & white, where one factor automatically influences the other. I would suggest moving on to a new thread, or at least doing a bit of research before throwing your crap at the wall.

 

[Husky25]

If it goes from -4.5 to -5.5 than Vegas want to entice more money to St. Joe's, so the UConn money is pouring in.


If money was pouring in on St Joe's, Vegas would want more UConn money and the spread would lessen.

This indicates that the "Sharps," as Chad Milliman calls them (at first I thought he was saying Sharks, as in loanshark/Shylock/bookmakers), are on UConn's side and are willing to take that risk. These guys are not just throwing darts at the newspaper. They know exactly what they are doing. Do they get burned sometimes. Yes, absolutely. but they are correct far more than they are wrong and they take in far more than they pay out over time.

It's a fallacy that betting rooms are only after the VIG and want an equal amount of money on both sides. It's a losing proposition for them, unless there is literally the exact same amount bet on one side or another. Vegas allows the fallacy to persist because it actually helps their business if the common rube continues to believe exactly what you just said.

Many times (more time than not), they short the spread and as money comes in for one side they will move the mark closer to what they think it should be to entice more bets on that side. The very definition of a sucker bet.