McLovin
Gangstas, what's up?
- Joined
- Dec 3, 2018
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- 2,966
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I had a thought today, and wonder if anyone bettors out there have tested this strategy.
It’s crazy how often Vegas is right on the money with their lines.
So rather than try to beat the line makers, why not use their lines against them?
Here’s how it would work…
You find a game that has a line at -2.5 or -7.5
Rather than pick a side for -110, you can place (at least on DraftKings) a bet on the winning margin buckets “wins by 1-5 points”, “wins by 6-10 points”, etc.
The payout on those winning margin bets are +300 and up.
So if a Vegas has a team winning by 7.5, you can bet the 6-10 bucket giving you 2 points on either side of the line and increase payout from -110 to +300.
The risk is that Vegas is way off with their lines and the margin falls outside the bucket (team blows them out by 15, you’d cover the spread but miss the winning margin bet).
I wonder what % of Vegas lines are within 2 points. At +300 it seems like doesn’t even have to hit a high clip to turn a profit over time.
It’s crazy how often Vegas is right on the money with their lines.
So rather than try to beat the line makers, why not use their lines against them?
Here’s how it would work…
You find a game that has a line at -2.5 or -7.5
Rather than pick a side for -110, you can place (at least on DraftKings) a bet on the winning margin buckets “wins by 1-5 points”, “wins by 6-10 points”, etc.
The payout on those winning margin bets are +300 and up.
So if a Vegas has a team winning by 7.5, you can bet the 6-10 bucket giving you 2 points on either side of the line and increase payout from -110 to +300.
The risk is that Vegas is way off with their lines and the margin falls outside the bucket (team blows them out by 15, you’d cover the spread but miss the winning margin bet).
I wonder what % of Vegas lines are within 2 points. At +300 it seems like doesn’t even have to hit a high clip to turn a profit over time.