Sports Betting Ideas | The Boneyard

Sports Betting Ideas

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If allowed, I thought it might be fun to have a sports betting thread where we could share ideas.

Despite the loss to Army, I still made a decent amount of money on our Huskies and the Giants (so far). It seems to me you can ride the surprises for a while.

Yesterday I took Creighton and Cincinnati for very small amounts, both worked this time, wished I was more aggressive. Louisville might be a team to bet against for a while.

Anyone have any ideas they want to share? And Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!
 
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I almost never bet on college basketball, but I've gotten into a nice streak of lowish-risk two- and three-leg single game prop parlays in the NFL.

An example for one today:

Giants/Cowboys: +120
  • Lamb 5+ receptions
  • Slayton 45.5+ yards
Bills/Lions: -110
  • Buf ML
  • Singletary 54.5+ yards
I have a 3 leg of the one above, just adding in a Singletary TD for +185.

Anywho, so far I think I'm ahead this year, but I play with so little money it doesn't matter.
 
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I started out rough but am having a great week now that I'm getting to know the teams.

Lots of lines are befuddling me today. Gonna see if they move or wait until after tip-off to grab them. No idea what to do with the Kansas, Stanford, Xavier and Seton Hall games. I like Villa, NC St, UConn & Mich St but don't see any gimmies like earlier in the week.
 

HuskyWarrior611

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Receiving RBs like McCaffrey, Ekeler, and Kamara have been basically money on their receptions and receiving yards props for most of the year. Mahomes on the over for passing yards too. He’s on fire.

For CFB Iowa State is great on unders playing in the Big 12. They always put the line a little high because most Big 12 teams score a lot but ISU defense is good enough to slow them down for a game.
 
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Sports betting is a crapshoot unless you actually spend the time handicapping and shopping lines (and even then you’ll be lucky to hit at a 60% clip). Vegas wasn’t built on winners and every book knows over the long haul you will be a loser

To make money you have to hit at about 56% to be profitable and sometimes higher depending on what you pay for vig. There’s no secret formula or anything otherwise everyone would be winners and every book in the world would close up shop.

Just have to understand the realities of what sports betting is and not become a degenerate chasing your losses. Next to no one makes a living being a professional sports bettor, those guys are few and far between and the ones who claim they are probably have just been on a few year streak and will come back down to earth as they regress to the mean

Good luck in your endeavor but keep realistic expectations
 

August_West

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I started out rough but am having a great week now that I'm getting to know the teams.

Lots of lines are befuddling me today. Gonna see if they move or wait until after tip-off to grab them. No idea what to do with the Kansas, Stanford, Xavier and Seton Hall games. I like Villa, NC St, UConn & Mich St but don't see any gimmies like earlier in the week.
I like seton hall, don’t think I will touch nova today , am thinking about Portland +15 at noon agains unc but waffling.
 
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I like seton hall, don’t think I will touch nova today , am thinking about Portland +15 at noon agains unc but waffling.
Memphis underperforms 7 out of 10 times, but the other 3 times they burn me. Williams and Davis are talented. I have a hard time betting against/for them because they're such a wild card. That said, I took Seton Hall for a small bet once the line moved to +2.

The Villanova game is more of me betting against ISU. They haven't played any comp yet, lost their two best players and replaced them with two decent Bonnies. Villanova played Mich St tough their last game and we're finding out Mich St is better than was expected.

I tried betting JMU to cover against UNC and lost. I thought about Portland until I saw they last lost to Seattle, so I'm going to stay away.

Good luck and remember you can also hedge in game if you need to.
 

HuskyWarrior611

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I almost never bet on college basketball, but I've gotten into a nice streak of lowish-risk two- and three-leg single game prop parlays in the NFL.

An example for one today:

Giants/Cowboys: +120
  • Lamb 5+ receptions
  • Slayton 45.5+ yards
Bills/Lions: -110
  • Buf ML
  • Singletary 54.5+ yards
I have a 3 leg of the one above, just adding in a Singletary TD for +185.

Anywho, so far I think I'm ahead this year, but I play with so little money it doesn't matter.
I will say I took Saquon against this lions run d to get 100+ receiving and rushing and absolutely pooped on me. Don’t think he even got 50 yards combined.
 

August_West

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The best advice I’ve read, believe and usually follow is to stay away from parlays. I know the payouts are attractive but for good reason.
It’s solid advice overall, but especially early cupcake schedules I’ll bundle a bunch of ML picks with a couple of what I view as favorable spreads , the payouts aren’t that attractive picking easy favorites even doing 6 or 7 legs, but you do get paid.

But yeah otherwise I single game bet.

I only bet college hoops, because I watch a ton and feel well informed between that and reading stuff.

Anytime I dip into another sport I get screwed, so I just leave it alone.
 
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Cigar Aficionado has tremendous sports betting articles from time to time, “can’t miss” strategies.
 
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I’ve been doing really well on college hoops this week - WC less so, but a couple of wins (grabbed a Belgium +120 to win during the first half yesterday which was insane value for that team).

i usually stay away from parlays (or will do something useless like a 10-leg heavy favorite parlay at like +200 total odds with a $5 bet), but today I’m running some anytime TD scorers parlays since DraftKings was having some promos.

College hoops is generally my best and I also do quite a bit with baseball and college football/NFL. I tried to do some F1 this year and just got killed since Max won every time.

E: echoing above re: Portland/UNC. I also bet JMU to cover against them and lost that, so while it’s got me giddy at +15 I think cooler heads will prevail and I’ll stay away. On both Seton Hall and Nova but that’s probably BE bias.
 
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Ideas?

Smash the promos and bet everything that's +EV whether you know anything about the sport or not.

Can you please provide an example, possibly using a bet from today? Thanks in advance!
 
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Sports betting is a crapshoot unless you actually spend the time handicapping and shopping lines (and even then you’ll be lucky to hit at a 60% clip). Vegas wasn’t built on winners and every book knows over the long haul you will be a loser

To make money you have to hit at about 56% to be profitable and sometimes higher depending on what you pay for vig. There’s no secret formula or anything otherwise everyone would be winners and every book in the world would close up shop.

Just have to understand the realities of what sports betting is and not become a degenerate chasing your losses. Next to no one makes a living being a professional sports bettor, those guys are few and far between and the ones who claim they are probably have just been on a few year streak and will come back down to earth as they regress to the mean

Good luck in your endeavor but keep realistic expectations
Breakeven is 52.4% with a standard -110 vig
 
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Couple of my strategies.

I always check the open vs current line and how it stacks up on other sites at actionnetwork.com:

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Half of my betting is in game. I do a bunch of small in game bets. For instance, the Arizona / Creighton game I started with Arizona -2.5 then got Creighton +5.5, +7.5, +9.5 & +12.5. I can't believe I lost the Arizona starter and am very happy I covered myself with the Creighton hedges. I wanted a comeback, just not that much of one, haha. Nearly caught the gap by 1 point which would've been a big payout. College basketball is all about swings. You can also improve your line after the first basket. For example, if Oregon scores first, you can pickup UConn -1.5-2.5. Be careful with in game betting though because they'll move the line before changing the score and ahead of tv delays.

If I see a weird line or big move I check for injuries on covers.com. Have been burned before by best players not playing.
 
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Can you please provide an example, possibly using a bet from today? Thanks in advance!
Draftkings just offered a promo on USA Soccer vs. England.

Odds boost on USA Over 0.5 goals from -160 to +150.

The odds on Under 0.5 goals are +120.

You could bet Over at +150 and it's +EV (assuming the original odds of -160/+120 are remotely valid). Or you could even hedge it, betting both sides to guarantee a small profit.
 
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My other piece of advice on tactics:

Never use the "Cash Out" feature on the online sportsbooks. If you want to hedge a bet live, do the math and hedge it yourself, it's always a better value. Otherwise you're just paying them money to do it.
 
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I like seton hall, don’t think I will touch nova today , am thinking about Portland +15 at noon agains unc but waffling.
Nice call on Portland! I hope I didn't steer you away.
 

August_West

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Nice call on Portland! I hope I didn't steer you away.
You didn’t, I stick to my gut and I value your guys opinions. Info is always good, and you watch ( and bet) as much as me but yeah I took that. Nice hit.
 

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