Someone explain to me how these NBA scouts think?

[BUConn10]

So while reading the scouting reports on the NBA Draft prospects. While Wiggins and Parker seem to be strong and obvious picks, Embiid seems more puzzling. Surely he has a great physical build with seemingly nice defensive instincts. Yet at KU he averaged 11 and 8 while from day one, the scouts were all over this kid like few other. Yet when Drummond stepped on the court for us a couple years ago, he was labeled as a question mark from the get go. How is this justified? Is it just because anything Kansas HAS to be better than boring old UConn?

Drummond, who I totally believe had a more impressive body and athleticism was immediately labeled a "do not touch/bust" type player at UConn, with scouts calling him lazy, somehow determining this by watching him in limited footage.

Drummond's Freshman Season - 10 pts, 8 reb, ~3 bpg.
Embiid Fr Season - 11 pts, 8 reb, and 2.3 bpg.

Yet this kid has gotten so much hype this season that he somehow dethroned his own teammate who was one of the biggest prospects in years. Meanwhile, 8 GM's in the NBA hate themselves for passing on Drummond and letting him slide to #9, insulting.

 

[Nnocu]

Yep, I'm pretty sure the Pelicans GM is hating himself right now for passing on Drummond. Quite frankly, I don't know how he still has his job after that horrendous #1 overall pick

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

It has to do with the fact they actually watch the guys play instead of going by stats. Andre lacked a motor while here at uconn. Embid had no such issues at KU. He has only played basketball for 4 years also.

If Andre played every game like he did against Syracuse he would've easily been a top 2 pick if not the #1.

 

[HuskiesAllDay]

Yep, I'm pretty sure the Pelicans GM is hating himself right now for passing on Drummond. Quite frankly, I don't know how he still has his job after that horrendous #1 overall pick

Is that even remotely close to the point of the initial post? Why the pelicans chose Davis over Andre??

If you're going to be a sarcastic , at least try to come close to comprehending the initial argument.

 

[boog204]

Embiid has more pure basketball talent than AD does and is an inch or two taller. He's also only been playing basketball for a few years. AD has the physical skills but as stated before was labeled as lazy and lacking a "motor." I also know there were lots of knocks on AD's bball IQ and his overall maturity.

I think you look at it like this. If Embiid reaches his fullest potential he is Olajuwon. If AD reaches his max potential he's a better Dwight Howard. The lure of having a center who could potentially scored 25 a game is nice. I don't think AD will ever be that type of scorer as his game is predicated on dunks.

I 'm not killing AD by any means, I can just see scouts/GMs seeing the comp this way. FWIW I don't think Embiid becomes Olajuwon and AD will have the much better career.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

I was watching Shaq highlights and thinking... Maybe Andre's potential is actually Shaq? I know everyone wants to make the Dwight Howard comparison but Dwight does not have a lot of the skills Andre has already now, isn't the athlete Andre is, and doesn't have Andre's size either. Shaq had all of those.

 

[Robertelamin]

Shaq is on another level entirely. He had like 50-60 pounds on Andre and Andre is enormous.

 

[boog204]

You can't do the Shaq/AD comp. Aside from size (7-1 vs. 6-10) Shaq, right from the get go, was a huge scorer. In their 20 year old years Shaq was a 23-14-3.5 guy. AD was 13-13-1.5. I don't know if AD will ever be a 20+ppg scorer. I think the Dwight Howard comp is the most apt.

 

[Sportsman5]

So while reading the scouting reports on the NBA Draft prospects. While Wiggins and Parker seem to be strong and obvious picks, Embiid seems more puzzling. Surely he has a great physical build with seemingly nice defensive instincts. Yet at KU he averaged 11 and 8 while from day one, the scouts were all over this kid like few other. Yet when Drummond stepped on the court for us a couple years ago, he was labeled as a question mark from the get go. How is this justified? Is it just because anything Kansas HAS to be better than boring old UConn?

Drummond, who I totally believe had a more impressive body and athleticism was immediately labeled a "do not touch/bust" type player at UConn, with scouts calling him lazy, somehow determining this by watching him in limited footage.

Drummond's Freshman Season - 10 pts, 8 reb, ~3 bpg.
Embiid Fr Season - 11 pts, 8 reb, and 2.3 bpg.

Yet this kid has gotten so much hype this season that he somehow dethroned his own teammate who was one of the biggest prospects in years. Meanwhile, 8 GM's in the NBA hate themselves for passing on Drummond and letting him slide to #9, insulting.

They are guessing like everyone else. That's why GM turnover is so high. Scouts and front office people have very little advantage (except for inside info that anyone would have in their position) over people who closely follow college and NBA basketball.

 

[TheChamps990411]

AD will be a 20-10+ guy someday i believe. Hes so young and is only going to get better and better. He has scored 20 and i believe even had a 30 point game so the ability is there.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

You guys have to remember how young Andre is right now and how Shaq stayed for 3 years at LSU. Now this is not to say Andre will be as big or good as Shaq but I do think he can be a Baby Shaq.

As far as size, Shaq was 250 as a junior in high school while Andre was 265 his senior year. Andre weighed in at 279 at the combine after his freshman year in college while Shaq was 294 when he came out after his junior year. That's 15 pounds in 2 years. Guys develop over there time in the nba body wise so I wouldn't be surprised to see Andre tipping 300 in his prime.

Next year Andre will be 4 years removed from high school like Shaq was when he stepped into the league averaging 20+. With SVG as coach I really believe next year is Andre's breakout year where he will start becoming an All Star center and considered top 5 if not 3 centers in the league averaging 20+ and 13. So then him and Shaq will be on the same track. I see no reason why Andre can't be a 20+ ppg scorer in the NBA. He averages 13 while having the top 5 fewest touches among NBA starters.

With all of that being said I am sticking to my Shaq comparison instead of Dwight Howard. People are quick to say Dwight Howard first just because he is an athletic center but his skill set, athleticism, and size is much more similar to a baby Shaq than Baby Dwight. Everyone is just afraid to make the Shaq comparison because he isn't killing it like Shaq was when he first came in the league. Which is because he came out earlier and less ready. Even then he has been killing it based on advanced stats.

 

[Dogdeacon]

What's the difference at this point? Andre is in a good situation, is a rising star and with SVV aboard seems poised for a nice run at NBA success. Unless you are his accountant or agent at this point his bball career and development is on track. If he'd been 1-2 after not being ready to dominate in college it likely would have been harder in the NBA and he would have had too much $, PT and expectations before he was ready.

Don't see the Shaq comp at all. Shaq was a man amongst boys at every level, bigger and stronger than anyone since Wilt. Early career Howard is a more apt comp.

 

[James]

Media acting like drummond came out of nowhere, he was clearly the number 1 recruit in his class at a YOUNG age. I still remember many Mock drafts had him at like 25-30. that 2012 draft was nice,four perennial all stars (dre, beal, davis, and lillard).

 

[Rocktheworld]

Media acting like drummond came out of nowhere, he was clearly the number 1 recruit in his class at a YOUNG age. I still remember many Mock drafts had him at like 25-30. that 2012 draft was nice,four perennial all stars (dre, beal, davis, and lillard).

Imagine if he did his one year at UK though.

 

[Dogdeacon]

Media acting like drummond came out of nowhere, he was clearly the number 1 recruit in his class at a YOUNG age. I still remember many Mock drafts had him at like 25-30. that 2012 draft was nice,four perennial all stars (dre, beal, davis, and lillard).

Good point. He was the number one rated recruit, but lost momentum as he didn't dominate as expected at UConn. Embid is on his initial rise

 

[intlzncster]

You guys have to remember how young Andre is right now and how Shaq stayed for 3 years at LSU. Now this is not to say Andre will be as big or good as Shaq but I do think he can be a Baby Shaq.

As far as size, Shaq was 250 as a junior in high school while Andre was 265 his senior year. Andre weighed in at 279 at the combine after his freshman year in college while Shaq was 294 when he came out after his junior year. That's 15 pounds in 2 years. Guys develop over there time in the nba body wise so I wouldn't be surprised to see Andre tipping 300 in his prime.

Next year Andre will be 4 years removed from high school like Shaq was when he stepped into the league averaging 20+. With SVG as coach I really believe next year is Andre's breakout year where he will start becoming an All Star center and considered top 5 if not 3 centers in the league averaging 20+ and 13. So then him and Shaq will be on the same track. I see no reason why Andre can't be a 20+ ppg scorer in the NBA. He averages 13 while having the top 5 fewest touches among NBA starters.

With all of that being said I am sticking to my Shaq comparison instead of Dwight Howard. People are quick to say Dwight Howard first just because he is an athletic center but his skill set, athleticism, and size is much more similar to a baby Shaq than Baby Dwight. Everyone is just afraid to make the Shaq comparison because he isn't killing it like Shaq was when he first came in the league. Which is because he came out earlier and less ready. Even then he has been killing it based on advanced stats.

I think people shy from the Shaq comparison, not just because of numbers, but stylistically as well. Shaq and Wilt were the most dominant big men in NBA history. Maybe not the best (Russell, Hakeem, DR, Jabbar, etc), but the most dominant. There wasn't a guy in the NBA who Shaq couldn't back down, spin and dunk on. He was just a force. I think Andre is more athletic and I hope he doesn't push Shaq weight wise.

 

[Gurleyman]

Shaq had a level of fluidity to his offensive game - even at age 20 - that Andre does not. Their power is similar - give them a chance to get to the rim for a dunk and you might as well get out of the way. However, if Shaq went to a power move and a defender was in the way, he could put up a soft shot over him with touch. That's where Drummond is still developing his game. That touch didn't extend to the FT line, but from 12 feet and in, Shaq could score with power and finesse. He was a 30 ppg game guy at his peak. Drummond's ceiling is probably 20, but we'll see.

 

[champs99and04]

Don't understand the OP's sentiment. It was far from unanimous that 'Dre was going to be a bust, otherwise he wouldn't have gone #9 (and a lot of people thought he should have gone higher). Also, you're acting like some of the red flags Drummond's freshman season raised weren't understandable. The kid shot 30% from the line. To call him raw would have been an understatement, and Embiid is definitely further along (both defensively and offensively) than Drummond was at the same stage. He's displayed better shot blocking and rebounding instincts, he's far more poised with his back to the basket (both in regards to scoring and finding cutters), and he shot almost 70% from the line (which is a good indication that he'll be able to develop a consistent 15 foot jump shot). To act as if Drummond was penalized as a prospect because he went to UConn is laughable. Embiid's per minute numbers were off the charts in his one year at Kansas.

In regards to Drummond's prototype, I think we can safely rule out Shaq, as it's doubtful that we'll ever see another Shaq again. The Dwight Howard comparison is a good one, even though I think 'Dre has better hands, body control, and lateral quickness. Whether Drummond ever becomes as good as Dwight Howard depends on how 'Dre develops mentally. Dwight was one of the smartest defensive centers in the game, Drummond just isn't there yet. I suspect one of the main reasons the Pistons brought in SVG was to help him get there.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

What's the difference at this point? Andre is in a good situation, is a rising star and with SVV aboard seems poised for a nice run at NBA success. Unless you are his accountant or agent at this point his bball career and development is on track. If he'd been 1-2 after not being ready to dominate in college it likely would have been harder in the NBA and he would have had too much $, PT and expectations before he was ready.

Don't see the Shaq comp at all. Shaq was a man amongst boys at every level, bigger and stronger than anyone since Wilt. Early career Howard is a more apt comp.

I'm not saying him coming in early is a bad thing. Just him coming in early is the reason he isn't dominating as soon as he came in like Shaq did. Did anyone see Shaq play at LSU? Because that's the play that would be comparable to Andre now. If Andre averages 20 next year his progression would be on pace with Shaq. He looks like he is starting to get very comfortable with the NBA game. Next year can be a huge year for him. I feel like in his peak he can be a 25 and 15 guy. MVP candidate.

 

[James]

Don't understand the OP's sentiment. It was far from unanimous that 'Dre was going to be a bust, otherwise he wouldn't have gone #9 (and a lot of people thought he should have gone higher). Also, you're acting like some of the red flags Drummond's freshman season raised weren't understandable. The kid shot 30% from the line. To call him raw would have been an understatement, and Embiid is definitely further along (both defensively and offensively) than Drummond was at the same stage. He's displayed better shot blocking and rebounding instincts, he's far more poised with his back to the basket (both in regards to scoring and finding cutters), and he shot almost 70% from the line (which is a good indication that he'll be able to develop a consistent 15 foot jump shot). To act as if Drummond was penalized as a prospect because he went to UConn is laughable. Embiid's per minute numbers were off the charts in his one year at Kansas.

In regards to Drummond's prototype, I think we can safely rule out Shaq, as it's doubtful that we'll ever see another Shaq again. The Dwight Howard comparison is a good one, even though I think 'Dre has better hands, body control, and lateral quickness. Whether Drummond ever becomes as good as Dwight Howard depends on how 'Dre develops mentally. Dwight was one of the smartest defensive centers in the game, Drummond just isn't there yet. I suspect one of the main reasons the Pistons brought in SVG was to help him get there.

the thing with the dwight comparison , i remember watching alot of dwight in hs and his game was relatively in the area it was as a DPOY. Dre in HS was a phenom dribbling everywhere throwing dimes , he was a better prospect. His ceiling was/is much higher. Dre isn't shaq, but a still can't think of a good comp. he has a TON of offensive potential.
The thing with embiid is he isn't nearly on the level of dre's pure athleticsm in every aspects. and to say embiid showed better rebounding instincts is invalid, proven by the fact drummond is the best rebounder in the nba at the 5. is embiids skill really that high? What is embiid's floor as an nba player? he is not goshdarn tim duncan .

 

[champs99and04]

the thing with the dwight comparison , i remember watching alot of dwight in hs and his game was relatively in the area it was as a DPOY. Dre in HS was a phenom dribbling everywhere throwing dimes , he was a better prospect. His ceiling was/is much higher. Dre isn't shaq, but a still can't think of a good comp. he has a TON of offensive potential.
The thing with embiid is he isn't nearly on the level of dre's pure athleticsm in every aspects. and to say embiid showed better rebounding instincts is invalid, proven by the fact drummond is the best rebounder in the nba at the 5. is embiids skill really that high? What is embiid's floor as an nba player? he is not goshdarn tim duncan .

Embiid averaged 14 boards per 40 at Kansas, Drummond averaged 10.6 per 40 at UConn. Yes, Drummond has developed into one of the best rebounders in the league, but at the time it was unclear if he had the nose for the ball that all great rebounders have.

I agree with you that Drummond's offensive potential is enormous, but I think that lies purely in his athleticism. What confuses me is that Detroit never even seemed to make an effort to develop his post game, even though both Pistons teams he played for never had a shot at doing anything. He's never going to be Shaq, but he's such a freak of nature that he should be able to score on the block even without a refined skill set. The power post game is something that is something of a lost art in today's game, and I think Andre would be well-served to integrate that into his repertoire. As big as he is - and especially in an era where a lot of teams are downsizing - he should be able to catch the ball in good post position and bully his way to the basket from there. Additionally, people under-estimate Andre's touch and body control around the basket. He doesn't have a jump hook or anything like that in his game yet, but he's showing progressions in his ability to contort his body and use the rim as a shield.

I don't think Embiid's skill level is exceptionally high at the moment, but he's showing signs of somebody who could develop those skills. It isn't like he's DeAndre Jordan coming out of Texas A&M or another one of your prototypical projects, the kid has a feel for the game that you can't really teach. Personally, I'm a little bit more weary about him than most. One red flag, at least to me, is his inability to stay out of foul trouble. The kid averaged 5.8 fouls per 40 minutes, and that was in college, where players were making a concerted effort to stay away from him. I'm not sure how he's going to fair at the next level, at least early on, against players who are savvy and deliberate around the basket. I think he's susceptible to biting on head fakes and committing dumb fouls. Those are all things that can be taught, though, and learned through experience. My money would be on him becoming a great player, but those who think he's going to step in right away and produce big time numbers might be in for a rude awakening. Worst case scenario, he's probably Andrew Bogut.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

the thing with the dwight comparison , i remember watching alot of dwight in hs and his game was relatively in the area it was as a DPOY. Dre in HS was a phenom dribbling everywhere throwing dimes , he was a better prospect. His ceiling was/is much higher. Dre isn't shaq, but a still can't think of a good comp. he has a TON of offensive potential.
The thing with embiid is he isn't nearly on the level of dre's pure athleticsm in every aspects. and to say embiid showed better rebounding instincts is invalid, proven by the fact drummond is the best rebounder in the nba at the 5. is embiids skill really that high? What is embiid's floor as an nba player? he is not goshdarn tim duncan .

Dre also has a TON of defensive potential too once he learns positioning. His pick and roll and perimeter defensive instincts are pretty good and once he learns discipline he could really be a guy who could guard almost anyone from Blake griffin to Dwight to Lebron and everyone because of his size and athleticism. I really think Andre has scary potential.

 

[boog204]

You guys have to remember how young Andre is right now and how Shaq stayed for 3 years at LSU. Now this is not to say Andre will be as big or good as Shaq but I do think he can be a Baby Shaq.

As far as size, Shaq was 250 as a junior in high school while Andre was 265 his senior year. Andre weighed in at 279 at the combine after his freshman year in college while Shaq was 294 when he came out after his junior year. That's 15 pounds in 2 years. Guys develop over there time in the nba body wise so I wouldn't be surprised to see Andre tipping 300 in his prime.

Next year Andre will be 4 years removed from high school like Shaq was when he stepped into the league averaging 20+. With SVG as coach I really believe next year is Andre's breakout year where he will start becoming an All Star center and considered top 5 if not 3 centers in the league averaging 20+ and 13. So then him and Shaq will be on the same track. I see no reason why Andre can't be a 20+ ppg scorer in the NBA. He averages 13 while having the top 5 fewest touches among NBA starters..

Shaq was 20 his rookie year; AD was 20 his second year. Yes, Shaq did have three years of college but he was 17 as a freshmen. For AD to start putting up 20 a game he's going to have to develop some semblance of a post game. You can't consistently put up points just being a pick and roll dunker which is essentially what he is now. From the moment Shaq stepped in the league he had that little jump hook and power drop step. I don't remember AD showing anything in the post. Obviously time is on his side and now with a "real" coach we should see him develop.

 

[Strummer]

I never liked D. Howand, I never liked his game. I never liked his attitude. I think the guy is not a winner. So I don't like comparisons to him.

Shaq was 22/13/3.4 pts/rbs/blks when he was 20, at 56% from the field. PER 36 minutes.
AD was 14/13/2.8 pts/rbs/blks when he was 20, at 60% from the field. PER 36 minutes.
Howard 15/12/1.4 pts/rbs/blks when he was 20, at 52% from the field. PER 36 minutes.

So AD is clearly better than Howard, and clearly not as good as Shaq, by those numbers. Shaq got 4 buckets more per 36, and Shaq was a better defender.

All that said, I think AD has more upside at 20 than either Shaq or Howard had. Not to say he can be better than Shaq - that does not seem possible - only that Shaq relied heavily on his size to dominate. I disagree that the guy had moves, other than 2 or 3. He couldn't shoot outside of 7 feet because of his eye issue. Shaq was Shaq more because of mass and athleticism than because of skills.

Andre has the potential to be a better basketball player than either of those guys - better handle, better court awareness, better athleticism. Just my 2 cents.

It may never happen, but if Andre ever got super serious about developing a few posts moves and becoming more locking in every game, he could easily be a top 15 all time guy.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

Shaq was 20 his rookie year; AD was 20 his second year. Yes, Shaq did have three years of college but he was 17 as a freshmen. For AD to start putting up 20 a game he's going to have to develop some semblance of a post game. You can't consistently put up points just being a pick and roll dunker which is essentially what he is now. From the moment Shaq stepped in the league he had that little jump hook and power drop step. I don't remember AD showing anything in the post. Obviously time is on his side and now with a "real" coach we should see him develop.

AD started to show more of a post game at the end of the season. Like I said before he was top 5 for least touches among starters in the league so his opportunities were limited. He is expected to have a much more expanded role next year with more shots and actual plays for him.