Some Perspective

[JonathanXIV]

A recurring theme on this Board, although admittedly not universally shared, is how this is the beginning of the end. The UConn dominance that we have come to know and love is now but a memory, and UConn fans had better start adjusting to this new reality, with UConn being in a group of very good, but not dominant, programs. I think this perspective is greatly overblown, and if a shot or two had bounced another way those who bleed blue would be talking about the unprecedented dominance of UConn and fans of other programs would be screaming to break up the Huskies. The truth, as always, lies somewhere in the middle.

Consider the following. Over the past six seasons the UConn women have put together the most dominant stretch of basketball in WCBB history. Four championships in six years, with a record of 223-7 over that time (188-3 over the last five years). UConn has not lost a game in regulation in over five seasons, with their last lost in regulation on March 12, 2012 (in Obama's first term) 61-59 to Notre Dame. Their record in the NCAA tournament over this time is 32-2. And, oh yeah, they had a 111 game winning streak.

The reason for this disconnect between the reality of the past six seasons, and the oft expressed concerns about UConn's decline is due to the fact that the last two seasons ended with two jumpers in OT. Consider what these sentiments would be if those jumpers (and losses) occurred at some point in the regular season (remember the shot that bounced off the rim in the Florida State game at the start of the 2016-17 season?) instead of during the final four? Or if we really want to put forward an alternative history, if those two shots had not found their mark and UConn was riding a streak of six championships and 187 consecutive wins.

We need to keep in mind that UConn, no matter how good the team, is not guaranteed to win every game (despite sentiments on this board to the contrary). Even if we have a 95% chance of winning every game, that's still 1 loss every 20 games. The fact that we have won 194 out of our last 197 games defies all odds. It's like Joe DiMaggio hitting in 56 straight games. And we should understand and appreciate this fact. Sure we were favored to win the games against Mississippi State and Notre Dame, and if we were to play them again I think we win the MS game 9 times out of 10, and the ND game 7 times out of 10.

As for this season, we have two of the best five players in the country, and one of the best (the best in my view) point guards. And, as everyone likes to point out, two #1 picks. It's a very good team, with a chance to be "really, really good." Remember that at the start of the 2016-17 season, after losing the top three picks in the WNBA draft, many were expressing doubts about how good UConn would be. And they turned out to be much better than almost anyone thought, just one jump shot away from a national championship and an undefeated season. Can this year's team show the same growth and grit and surprise everyone? I don't know, but I can't wait to find out.

(long time listener, first time caller)

 

[Biff]

Welcome. But, as a long time listener, you should be aware that rational perspective suffers mightily when compared to emotional hyperbole.

 

[BroadwayVa]

A recurring theme on this Board, although admittedly not universally shared, is how this is the beginning of the end. The UConn dominance that we have come to know and love is now but a memory, and UConn fans had better start adjusting to this new reality, with UConn being in a group of very good, but not dominant, programs. I think this perspective is greatly overblown, and if a shot or two had bounced another way those who bleed blue would be talking about the unprecedented dominance of UConn and fans of other programs would be screaming to break up the Huskies. The truth, as always, lies somewhere in the middle.

Consider the following. Over the past six seasons the UConn women have put together the most dominant stretch of basketball in WCBB history. Four championships in six years, with a record of 223-7 over that time (188-3 over the last five years). UConn has not lost a game in regulation in over five seasons, with their last lost in regulation on March 12, 2012 (in Obama's first term) 61-59 to Notre Dame. Their record in the NCAA tournament over this time is 32-2. And, oh yeah, they had a 111 game winning streak.

The reason for this disconnect between the reality of the past six seasons, and the oft expressed concerns about UConn's decline is due to the fact that the last two seasons ended with two jumpers in OT. Consider what these sentiments would be if those jumpers (and losses) occurred at some point in the regular season (remember the shot that bounced off the rim in the Florida State game at the start of the 2016-17 season?) instead of during the final four? Or if we really want to put forward an alternative history, if those two shots had not found their mark and UConn was riding a streak of six championships and 187 consecutive wins.

We need to keep in mind that UConn, no matter how good the team, is not guaranteed to win every game (despite sentiments on this board to the contrary). Even if we have a 95% chance of winning every game, that's still 1 loss every 20 games. The fact that we have won 194 out of our last 197 games defies all odds. It's like Joe DiMaggio hitting in 56 straight games. And we should understand and appreciate this fact. Sure we were favored to win the games against Mississippi State and Notre Dame, and if we were to play them again I think we win the MS game 9 times out of 10, and the ND game 7 times out of 10.

As for this season, we have two of the best five players in the country, and one of the best (the best in my view) point guards. And, as everyone likes to point out, two #1 picks. It's a very good team, with a chance to be "really, really good." Remember that at the start of the 2016-17 season, after losing the top three picks in the WNBA draft, many were expressing doubts about how good UConn would be. And they turned out to be much better than almost anyone thought, just one jump shot away from a national championship and an undefeated season. Can this year's team show the same growth and grit and surprise everyone? I don't know, but I can't wait to find out.

(long time listener, first time caller)

Superb job for the first. I agree Fans need to check the pulse of this team before they bury Geno and company.

 

[huskyd]

If I were asked to choose between World Peace and an Undefeated Championship Winning Season for UConn, I'd be in the same position as Jack Benny when he was held up by an armed robber and asked for his money or his life: I'm thinking, I'm thinking . . ." So much for rational thinking.

 

[winlots]

A recurring theme on this Board, although admittedly not universally shared, is how this is the beginning of the end. The UConn dominance that we have come to know and love is now but a memory, and UConn fans had better start adjusting to this new reality, with UConn being in a group of very good, but not dominant, programs. I think this perspective is greatly overblown, and if a shot or two had bounced another way those who bleed blue would be talking about the unprecedented dominance of UConn and fans of other programs would be screaming to break up the Huskies. The truth, as always, lies somewhere in the middle.

Consider the following. Over the past six seasons the UConn women have put together the most dominant stretch of basketball in WCBB history.

 

[winlots]

JON; well balanced and well reasoned top to bottom. A pleasure to read.

 

[shiverz45]

If UConn doesn't win it this year, I think the Jr. class will graduate without a National title .

 

[UConn82]

As I have written on BY elsewhere, it is hard for us to win a NC without an "uber" star, i.e., D, Maya or Stewie. We have won only 2 without one, and one (1995) we had Rebecca, and the other (2000), we "only" had the TASS force, Sveta, and Shea.

I am pretty confident we get to the Final Four. We have a lot of talent. Then, someone, anyone of the starters, has to take over the Final Four, as Stewie did when she was a freshman (29 against ND, and then 19 against Louisville in the first half, by which time the game was over.)

Lou and Pheesa know this full well. Neither has played well in the FF.

We shall see.

If CW does become "legendary," as she wants to be, then we can continue to dominate.

Again, we shall see.

 

[j66kicker]

As I have written on BY elsewhere, it is hard for us to win a NC without an "uber" star, i.e., D, Maya or Stewie. We have won only 2 without one, and one (1995) we had Rebecca, and the other (2000), we "only" had the TASS force, Sveta, and Shea.

I am pretty confident we get to the Final Four. We have a lot of talent. Then, someone, anyone of the starters, has to take over the Final Four, as Stewie did when she was a freshman (29 against ND, and then 19 against Louisville in the first half, by which time the game was over.)

Lou and Pheesa know this full well. Neither has played well in the FF.

We shall see.

If CW does become "legendary," as she wants to be, then we can continue to dominate.

Again, we shall see.

Re. 1995: Rebecca, Kara, Jen & Nykesha was "extreme talent" IMO, even if you don't think any one of them was "uber." And you could argue that - Rebecca won the Naismith, Wade Trophy, AP POY, WBCA POY, USBWA POY and Honda Award that year. And Jen won the Naismith, Wade, Honda Broderick Cup and AP POY the following year. If they weren't "uber", we still had the one or two best players in the country.

 

[Centerstream]

Well written but every new season is the same: the past has no effect on the current team's present and future. Streaks are great, something to discuss and to add on to when possible, but they have no real effect on the future. (But I am 100% behind winning the final game of the 2018-2019 season because I believe that Lou and Pheesa have certainly done their very best to earn a second NC.)

 

[Charliebball]

UConn's short term future depends on the success of the 2019 and 2020 recruiting classes.................adding Boston and Jones to the remaining roster for next year will be a game changer, not adding them leaves a good team with a very short bench...............if relief comes with one of the 2020 point guards and at least one big front court player things will be back on track................two years of poor recruiting would be a serious blow indeed........

 

[Centerstream]

I am curious...how many other D1 WBB teams have played 2 seasons without winning the NC? Especially after winning the previous 4 in a row.

 

[hoopsfan22]

UConn's short term future depends on the success of the 2019 and 2020 recruiting classes.......adding Boston and Jones to the remaining roster for next year will be a game changer, not adding them leaves a good team with a very short bench.....if relief comes with one of the 2020 point guards and at least one big front court player things will be back on track......two years of poor recruiting would be a serious blow indeed...

The bigger question for me is how much longer is Geno going to do this? We're starting to get into recruiting classes that Geno may not be around to see graduate. This isn't strictly a UConn problem, as Muffet and Tara are within a few years of Geno's age, and those programs will face a similar uncertainty about future success, as all of them do when there's a change in staff.

 

[eebmg]

The bigger question for me is how much longer is Geno going to do this? We're starting to get into recruiting classes that Geno may not be around to see graduate. This isn't strictly a UConn problem, as Muffet and Tara are within a few years of Geno's age, and those programs will face a similar uncertainty about future success, as all of them do when there's a change in staff.

 

[Charliebball]

The bigger question for me is how much longer is Geno going to do this? We're starting to get into recruiting classes that Geno may not be around to see graduate. This isn't strictly a UConn problem, as Muffet and Tara are within a few years of Geno's age, and those programs will face a similar uncertainty about future success, as all of them do when there's a change in staff.

that may be a question that recruits might ask...............not sure what Geno's answer would be but I don't get a sense that he's ready to retire any time soon based on his attitude and work schedule...............obviously just my opinion.....

 

[Centerstream]

The bigger question for me is how much longer is Geno going to do this? We're starting to get into recruiting classes that Geno may not be around to see graduate. This isn't strictly a UConn problem, as Muffet and Tara are within a few years of Geno's age, and those programs will face a similar uncertainty about future success, as all of them do when there's a change in staff.

I would think that even though Geno isn't in this for himself, I think as long as he can continue to recruit his type of players that he would like to get as close to Pat's career win record as he possibly can.

 

[MSGRET]

I would think that even though Geno isn't in this for himself, I think as long as he can continue to recruit his type of players that he would like to get as close to Pat's career win record as he possibly can.

I believe that Geno will retire after Tara and after he has the record for the most wins, because I believe that both Tara and Geno will pass the late great coach Pat Summit. Geno may even try to have the best wining record of all college coaches depending on when Coach K retires. If my memory serves me correctly he is around 100 games behind Coach K.

 

[SLY63]

UConn has not lost a game in regulation in over five seasons, with their last lost in regulation on March 12, 2012

This still boggles my mind

 

[nwhoopfan]

I suspect Geno will retire when he no longer feels he has the passion or energy to keep coaching. I don't think anyone, including Geno, knows exactly when that will be. I don't see him as being a guy who is all that motivated by chasing records. Catching Summit is reasonably within his sights. Catching K though? Considering K is still active and Geno is gaining on him less than he is gaining on Tara, doesn't seem that likely to me. I can see K continuing until his health forces him to retire, they'll have to drag him off the court kicking and screaming.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Might not be related to anything, but both John Dunning as Stanford volleyball coach and Pat Casey as Oregon St. baseball coach retired suddenly and unexpectedly after winning National Championships fairly recently. When a coach decides it's time, it happens.