Some Actual Data on UConn Turnovers From Seton Hall Game

[JoePgh]

All of the Boneyard (including myself) agree that turnovers have been the biggest issue in UConn's on-court performance in the last half dozen games or so. There has been a lot of speculation about the causes, but not much data. So I'm offering below a detailed analysis of UConn's turnovers in one recent game (the Seton Hall game). In that game, just before the Christmas break, UConn had its full roster available except Azzi, so the 22 turnovers in that game cannot be blamed on Nika's or Dorka's absence. Nor can it be blamed on Seton Hall's amazing defense, given that UConn scored 98 points in the game.

To obtain and validate this data, I re-watched the game with pen in hand, noting every UConn turnover. I then cross-referenced my observation to the box score published on UConn's web site, using the details in the multi-page PDF which provide a play-by-play record of the game. So I am pretty confident of the accuracy of what is presented below.

The high-level breakdown of UConn's turnovers was:

8 dead-ball turnovers (traveling, 3 seconds, step on line)
1 offensive foul
10 bad passes
3 Seton Hall steals that were not on bad passes (i.e., stolen out of hands)

Interestingly, none of UConn's 22 turnovers were against full-court pressure by Seton Hall, even though the Pirates did apply such pressure briefly in the third quarter.

Also interestingly, 19 of the 22 turnovers occurred in the first three quarters, during which UConn accumulated a 31-point lead, winning those quarters by 15, 7, and 9 points respectively. UConn lost the 4th quarter by 6 points, but committed only 3 turnovers while doing so, so there is no correlation at all between UConn's offensive success and its turnover rate, at least in this game. It should be noted that UConn had 30 assists in the game, so the A-to-TO ratio of 30/22 is still quite favorable. Re-watching the game, there were a lot of amazing passes, especially by Nika, that resulted in layups but that were within inches of being turnovers. Nika's personal A-to-TO ratio (11 to 4) is still very exceptional, and probably compares favorably with legendary UConn PG's like Jen, Sue, Renee, Moriah, and Crystal.

I would make the argument that the team's 30 assists should be compared to the 10 bad passes (which might be called "failed assists"), and that 3-to-1 ratio suggests that making a certain number of bad passes is the inevitable price of making amazing passes to score big points. It's like an NFL quarterback who throws more than an average number of interceptions, but throws three times as many TD passes as interceptions. Coaches and fans should accept the INT's as the price of the TD passes that he is able to launch.

Certainly some of the 10 bad passes were dumb passes, and Geno is right to be concerned about them -- but some were calculated risks, and those should be accepted.

The numbers of the other categories of turnovers (8 dead-ball turnovers, 1 offensive foul, and 3 balls lost on steals) do not seem excessive to me, and do not indicate major carelessness in UConn's ball custody.

Bottom line: UConn's turnovers are a valid cause for some concern, but not for the Boneyard's level of hysteria when you look into the issue more deeply. I didn't look at games other than Seton Hall, but I expect that they would tell a similar story.

 

[Centerstream]

Good analysis.

 

[Next 12]

Excellent analysis and comprehensive breakdown on the turnovers. I really like your conclusion of the passing turnovers as to football pass- interception ratio, it was spot on. Granted 20-22 turnovers per game is not good basketball, but the way you analized it, it makes it easier to swallow. Thank you for the post. GO HUSKIES!!!

 

[Skeets]

All of the Boneyard (including myself) agree that turnovers have been the biggest issue in UConn's on-court performance in the last half dozen games or so. There has been a lot of speculation about the causes, but not much data. So I'm offering below a detailed analysis of UConn's turnovers in one recent game (the Seton Hall game). In that game, just before the Christmas break, UConn had its full roster available except Azzi, so the 22 turnovers in that game cannot be blamed on Nika's or Dorka's absence. Nor can it be blamed on Seton Hall's amazing defense, given that UConn scored 98 points in the game.

To obtain and validate this data, I re-watched the game with pen in hand, noting every UConn turnover. I then cross-referenced my observation to the box score published on UConn's web site, using the details in the multi-page PDF which provide a play-by-play record of the game. So I am pretty confident of the accuracy of what is presented below.

The high-level breakdown of UConn's turnovers was:

8 dead-ball turnovers (traveling, 3 seconds, step on line)
1 offensive foul
10 bad passes
3 Seton Hall steals that were not on bad passes (i.e., stolen out of hands)

Interestingly, none of UConn's 22 turnovers were against full-court pressure by Seton Hall, even though the Pirates did apply such pressure briefly in the third quarter.

Also interestingly, 19 of the 22 turnovers occurred in the first three quarters, during which UConn accumulated a 31-point lead, winning those quarters by 15, 7, and 9 points respectively. UConn lost the 4th quarter by 6 points, but committed only 3 turnovers while doing so, so there is no correlation at all between UConn's offensive success and its turnover rate, at least in this game. It should be noted that UConn had 30 assists in the game, so the A-to-TO ratio of 30/22 is still quite favorable. Re-watching the game, there were a lot of amazing passes, especially by Nika, that resulted in layups but that were within inches of being turnovers. Nika's personal A-to-TO ratio (11 to 4) is still very exceptional, and probably compares favorably with legendary UConn PG's like Jen, Sue, Renee, Moriah, and Crystal.

I would make the argument that the team's 30 assists should be compared to the 10 bad passes (which might be called "failed assists"), and that 3-to-1 ratio suggests that making a certain number of bad passes is the inevitable price of making amazing passes to score big points. It's like an NFL quarterback who throws more than an average number of interceptions, but throws three times as many TD passes as interceptions. Coaches and fans should accept the INT's as the price of the TD passes that he is able to launch.

Certainly some of the 10 bad passes were dumb passes, and Geno is right to be concerned about them -- but some were calculated risks, and those should be accepted.

The numbers of the other categories of turnovers (8 dead-ball turnovers, 1 offensive foul, and 3 balls lost on steals) do not seem excessive to me, and do not indicate major carelessness in UConn's ball custody.

Bottom line: UConn's turnovers are a valid cause for some concern, but not for the Boneyard's level of hysteria when you look into the issue more deeply. I didn't look at games other than Seton Hall, but I expect that they would tell a similar story.

You and I are of a like mind. In another thread I said some of the turnovers are a risk/reward situation. When it works it's an assist. When it doesn't it's a turnover. I can live with those. the stupid ones do need to be cleaned up.

 

[RedStickHusky]

Kara Walters dropped a nice tidbit in pregame yesterday. We're under 14 to per game with Nika and Azzi playing together. Missing either one, we're closer to 18.

 

[OldSchooler]

I like Alan Bestwick, who does the SNY play-by-play with Meg Culmo. But there's one phrase he uses that annoys me. In several recent games, when the opposing team misses an early shot, or the shot hits the rim and goes out of bounds, he has said that they "turned the ball over." We all know what he means. In football, when a team fails to make a first down, they "turn the ball over on downs." But in basketball, "turning the ball over" is a term of art -- an errant play by the offense that gives the ball over to the defense BEFORE THEY CAN COMPLETE AN OFFENSIVE EFFORT. He should avoid using the "turn . . . over" terminology when a team simply misses a shot. Some viewers might be misled in confusing a missed FGA with a turnover.

 

[Brewski]

This is a good post @JoePgh and I agree with it. We all love data, so here's further data to support your analysis.

There are many actions that can result in a turnover, including: ball stolen by opposing team, throwing a bad pass, throwing the ball out of bounds, stepping out of bounds, committing a double-dribble, palming or traveling violation, committing a back-court violation, shot clock violation, three-second violation, five-second violation or an offensive foul (charge or illegal screen). Others?

As per this thread, turnovers are typically divided into Forced and Unforced turnovers. I agree with @JoePgh's post that most of our turnovers this season are unforced; for example throwing a bad pass or traveling or a 3-second violation. These "stupid" turnovers can (and will) be reduced with better fundamentals, practice, and coaching.

Consider the following table (all games to date) of all our players showing total playing time, turnovers, and average minutes played per turnover. The more minutes you play per turnover, the better you are at taking care of the ball.

The table obviously shows that the more you play, the higher your turnover potential is going to be(duh!). But, experienced players that play a lot also potentially reduce their turnover rate over time because practice makes perfect.

Our inexperienced players tend to have less minutes played per turnover on average. AP is a nice exception here!

One thing the table does not show is how many minutes a player has the ball in their hands every game. You can't have a turnover without the ball (brilliant statement!).

Nika has 41 turnovers but handles the ball much more than anybody else in a given game. Does anybody want to reduce her time with the ball? Nope.

Total time with the ball in your hands would be a better indicator than total playing time for this table. I wonder if anybody is crazy enough to collect that data?

CD has been playing injured, so you just have to give her a break until she heals and is 100%.

I salute Dorka with her low turnover rate because she plays a lot in the paint, where turnover potential is high.

Azzi has the best ball handling skills on the team. It will be interesting to see how she progresses when she returns to play, hopefully tomorrow.

I leave you with a question. If a player shoots an air-ball and the opposing team gets the ball, is that considered an official turnover? Asking for a friend.