Solid 538 write-up on UConn

[ndmb]

I definitely have some quibbles with this piece (they underestimate the impact of being in the American, they don't mention Moriah's shooting percentage or Stokes block or rebound percentage), but it really does a great job with the data visualization and included this gem that I didn't know:

"The Huskies are way down the charts in rebounds per game, but this is pretty much because they don’t miss enough shots to get enough chances. When there was a rebound to get, they nabbed it 58.2 percent of the time — good for the fourth-highest rebounding rate of all 349 teams."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-huskies-are-better-than-the-wildcats-ever-hoped-to-be/

 

[2Husky]

Good article thanks for sharing. That first chart is really illustrative of where UConn is these days. While certainly aided by a weaker conference schedule the separation there is still incredible. I know I'm feeling more confident for the game tonight.

 

[OneTrickPony]

I definitely have some quibbles with this piece (they underestimate the impact of being in the American, they don't mention Moriah's shooting percentage or Stokes block or rebound percentage), but it really does a great job with the data visualization and included this gem that I didn't know:

"The Huskies are way down the charts in rebounds per game, but this is pretty much because they don’t miss enough shots to get enough chances. When there was a rebound to get, they nabbed it 58.2 percent of the time — good for the fourth-highest rebounding rate of all 349 teams."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-huskies-are-better-than-the-wildcats-ever-hoped-to-be/

It was easy to speculate that this was hurting our average, but it's nice to see the numbers crunched...

 

[CL82]

Thought the same thing 2Husky....

Wow.

 

[UcMiami]

I definitely have some quibbles with this piece (they underestimate the impact of being in the American, they don't mention Moriah's shooting percentage or Stokes block or rebound percentage), but it really does a great job with the data visualization and included this gem that I didn't know:

"The Huskies are way down the charts in rebounds per game, but this is pretty much because they don’t miss enough shots to get enough chances. When there was a rebound to get, they nabbed it 58.2 percent of the time — good for the fourth-highest rebounding rate of all 349 teams."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-huskies-are-better-than-the-wildcats-ever-hoped-to-be/

It is interesting because if you look back the three years that they use, the first year was pretty equivalent with ND, Louisville, and Rutgers still in conference and a solid slate of OOC, the second year only ND dropped off the schedule and the OOC was again stacked, and it is only this year that Rutgers and Louisville disappeared and the OOC was a little diminished though we added in the #2 (ND) and #3 (SC) teams in the country. So the benchmark (start) of the trend is I think pretty comparable to anything that came before, and the second year is very solid as well. Even if you penalize this year for a weaker schedule it would just bring us back to being an obvious outlier like the previous two years.

 

[2Husky]

We should set the season record for scoring margin tonight

 

[ndmb]

It is interesting because if you look back the three years that they use, the first year was pretty equivalent with ND, Louisville, and Rutgers still in conference and a solid slate of OOC, the second year only ND dropped off the schedule and the OOC was again stacked, and it is only this year that Rutgers and Louisville disappeared and the OOC was a little diminished though we added in the #2 (ND) and #3 (SC) teams in the country. So the benchmark (start) of the trend is I think pretty comparable to anything that came before, and the second year is very solid as well. Even if you penalize this year for a weaker schedule it would just bring us back to being an obvious outlier like the previous two years.

This year's team isn't as good as last year's (especially on the defensive end). It's more statistically dominant. That's pretty much it right there.

 

[ndmb]

Oh God, the comments.

 

[DobbsRover2]

This year's team isn't as good as last year's (especially on the defensive end). It's more statistically dominant. That's pretty much it right there.

But how much worse? This year's team is giving up 0.7 more points per game than last year's, but it's holding teams to a 30.8% shooting rate compared to last year's 31.0%, and the rebounding margin is at 13.0 to last year's 9.4. They will finish with the 4th best ever defensive scoring mark by a UConn team and probably the 3rd best defensive FG%.

Not too shabby.

 

[meyers7]

Oh God, the comments.

My theory that 85-87% of the world is stupid, really shines there.

 

[ndmb]

But how much worse? This year's team is giving up 0.7 more points per game than last year's, but it's holding teams to a 30.8% shooting rate compared to last year's 31.0%, and the rebounding margin is at 13.0 to last year's 9.4. They will finish with the 4th best ever defensive scoring mark by a UConn team and probably the 3rd best defensive FG%.

Not too shabby.

Well, that's kind of my point. There's no way to directly compared SOS between years, but I would say those numbers are somewhat exaggerated by a slightly lower game-in and game-out competition this year. It used to be more common to see the scoring margin stagnate when our weakest five were in; now it's a lot more common to see the margin keep growing. I think this team is superb, but I would place them below the 02, 09, 10, and 14 teams. Yet, this team is the most statistically dominant we've seen when you account for pace (seriously, giving up 48 points while putting up 90?).

 

[MuchoDogYears]

This year's team isn't as good as last year's (especially on the defensive end). It's more statistically dominant. That's pretty much it right there.

This years team is better.

Start by looking at the bench.... superior, deeper bench this year than last.
Then, shooting guard...OK, last year Bria Hartley trumps Nurse.
Next, point guard...this year's Moriah definitely much better than last years Moriah.
SF...this years KML better than last years,
PF , this years Stewie better than last years.
Post - hard to compare Tuck and Dolson as they have totally different skill sets. I give the edge to Dolson, but it's close.

In 3 of the 5 positions this year's player trumps last year. And this years bench trumps last years. there's only one clear advantage for last year's team and that was Hartley over Nurse.

 

[ndmb]

This years team is better.

Start by looking at the bench.... superior, deeper bench this year than last.
Then, shooting guard...OK, last year Bria Hartley trumps Nurse.
Next, point guard...this year's Moriah definitely much better than last years Moriah.
SF...this years KML better than last years,
PF , this years Stewie better than last years.
Post - hard to compare Tuck and Dolson as they have totally different skill sets. I give the edge to Dolson, but it's close.

In 3 of the 5 positions this year's player trumps last year. And this years bench trumps last years. there's only one clear advantage for last year's team and that was Hartley over Nurse.

The issue is more with the synergy that the players' abilities have. Bria was/is an outstanding perimeter defender; a skill which this year's team could really use. If we had Bria, Dayton is down ten at halftime. Stefanie was an outstanding defender (in the same range as Stokes), but also provided outside shooting, phenomenal passing, and a great low-post offensive presence. This year, we don't have that dominance in the post position, and I promise you that we miss the best combo screener-passer that we've ever had at the high-post position. Tuck might score more than Dolson, but she doesn't provide those things.

Statistically, Moriah is only moderately better this year. Same with Stewie. I'm not really sure why you're touting the bench in such a big way when, in most big games, we go 6 deep (either Saniya or Kiah, depending on need), which is pretty much the same as last year.

We lost 2 senior leaders who combined for 45.5 minutes in their rookie years in the WNBA. It takes something massive to undo that.

 

[hoophuskee]

The issue is more with the synergy that the players' abilities have. Bria was/is an outstanding perimeter defender; a skill which this year's team could really use. If we had Bria, Dayton is down ten at halftime. Stefanie was an outstanding defender (in the same range as Stokes), but also provided outside shooting, phenomenal passing, and a great low-post offensive presence. This year, we don't have that dominance in the post position, and I promise you that we miss the best combo screener-passer that we've ever had at the high-post position. Tuck might score more than Dolson, but she doesn't provide those things.

Statistically, Moriah is only moderately better this year. Same with Stewie. I'm not really sure why you're touting the bench in such a big way when, in most big games, we go 6 deep (either Saniya or Kiah, depending on need), which is pretty much the same as last year.

We lost 2 senior leaders who combined for 45.5 minutes in their rookie years in the WNBA. It takes something massive to undo that.

I'm not saying which is team is "better" -- for me though last year's team is "greater" because they went undefeated. You go undefeated - you have more pressure on your back all the time. So in a way I'm on board with you.

But with that said- you use Dayton as an example - but do we have same struggles with BYU and Texas A&M for this year's team? Debatable I suppose.

 

[Bestiarius]

Not even on the same planet! Amazing charts.

 

[ndmb]

I'm not saying which is team is "better" -- for me though last year's team is "greater" because they went undefeated. You go undefeated - you have more pressure on your back all the time. So in a way I'm on board with you.

But with that said- you use Dayton as an example - but do we have same struggles with BYU and Texas A&M for this year's team? Debatable I suppose.

We had trouble with Dayton and we didn't play that badly. Last year, we didn't play well against BYU or Texas A&M, which is why they're different. I wasn't using the Dayton game as evidence that this year's team is worse, but as a means of making a point. Individual games are not necessarily reflective of teams' abilities because there are a lot of variables, otherwise, the 2010 team wasn't that great because they scored 12 points in a half in the most important game of the season.

 

[hoophuskee]

We had trouble with Dayton and we didn't play that badly. Last year, we didn't play well against BYU or Texas A&M, which is why they're different. I wasn't using the Dayton game as evidence that this year's team is worse, but as a means of making a point. Individual games are not necessarily reflective of teams' abilities because there are a lot of variables, otherwise, the 2010 team wasn't that great because they scored 12 points in a half in the most important game of the season.

I'm missing your analogy then with Dayton- I still don't get it-- but I'm with ya in terms of who is greater.