So Who Gets The Fourth #1 Seed In The NCAA Tournament

[TerpWomenFan]

That is going to be the debate for the rest of the season. Let's start with what we know.

South Carolina, Baylor and Oregon are locks for a #1 seed in the tournament unless something unforeseen happens.

The battle for the last one could be a doozy. Stanford, NC State, Louisville, Uconn, Mississippi State could all be in the mix.

Unless something unusual happens, UConn will win their remaining games. Louisville and/or NC State will have at least one loss (or two). Mississippi State could lose to South Carolina again. Stanford have Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA and the Arizona teams to worry about.

It will be a tough decision for the NCAA committee to determine that fourth #1 seed.

Who knows, if Maryland wins out and several teams ahead of them lose a couple of games, they could get the #1 seed because of their strong RPI and SOS.

 

[MSUFan2003]

This will be very interesting moving forward. Stanford has the most opportunities in front of them to build their resume, and they have the win over MS State.

 

[SimpleDawg]

UConn is out of the question. Last year they had that win over Notre Dame, and beyond that - pretty much an identiical resume to this year except one less loss and still got a #2 seed. This year, they'll either be a 2 seed or a 3 seed depending on how the other teams do.

I think it's between Maryland, Stanford, UCLA, Mississippi State, Louisville, NcState, and (dark horse) Iowa.

Louisville and NcState's remaining schedule looks... not bad. Both favored to win all their remaining games except for potentially 2 more matches with each other. If they split the series, then... I dunno how they distinguish the 2 teams.

Maryland has been treated well this year by the committee and they're also favored for all their remaining games 'cept Iowa - and if Iowa wins, they might have the edge in the Big 10 race. So that's why I think Iowa still has a chance for #1. And Fort Wayne is not *too* far from Iowa City, so there's another reason.

UCLA and Stanford has some tough competition remaining. If UCLA beats Oregon I think they'll probably look like they deserve that last spot and they already have that win over Stanford. (and don't necessarily have to play them again) Same for Stanford except a way tougher schedule. No way they're getting out of those last games without a loss. But that win over Mississippi State is looking great right now with them rising in the polls.

Missisisippi State's good thing is that they still have ranked opponents left..... like Arkansas, Kentucky and possibly those 2 again in the tournament plus the other ranked teams they just beat. Most people think they'll take care of all of those and lose to South Carolina in the final game. However, if they beat South Carolina..... it's really possible they could bee #1 depending on what the ACC, Big 10, and Pac 12 (besides Oregon) does.

 

[mbr33ct]

UConn is out of the question. Last year they had that win over Notre Dame, and beyond that - pretty much an identiical resume to this year except one less loss and still got a #2 seed. This year, they'll either be a 2 seed or a 3 seed depending on how the other teams do.

I think it's between Maryland, Stanford, UCLA, Mississippi State, Louisville, NcState, and (dark horse) Iowa.

Louisville and NcState's remaining schedule looks... not bad. Both favored to win all their remaining games except for potentially 2 more matches with each other. If they split the series, then... I dunno how they distinguish the 2 teams.

Maryland has been treated well this year by the committee and they're also favored for all their remaining games 'cept Iowa - and if Iowa wins, they might have the edge in the Big 10 race. So that's why I think Iowa still has a chance for #1. And Fort Wayne is not *too* far from Iowa City, so there's another reason.

UCLA and Stanford has some tough competition remaining. If UCLA beats Oregon I think they'll probably look like they deserve that last spot and they already have that win over Stanford. (and don't necessarily have to play them again) Same for Stanford except a way tougher schedule. No way they're getting out of those last games without a loss. But that win over Mississippi State is looking great right now with them rising in the polls.

Missisisippi State's good thing is that they still have ranked opponents left..... like Arkansas, Kentucky and possibly those 2 again in the tournament plus the other ranked teams they just beat. Most people think they'll take care of all of those and lose to South Carolina in the final game. However, if they beat South Carolina..... it's really possible they could bee #1 depending on what the ACC, Big 12, and Pac 12 (besides Oregon) does.

...and that's with a better team and 2 AA.

 

[TerpWomenFan]

UConn is out of the question. Last year they had that win over Notre Dame, and beyond that - pretty much an identiical resume to this year except one less loss and still got a #2 seed. This year, they'll either be a 2 seed or a 3 seed depending on how the other teams do.

I think it's between Maryland, Stanford, UCLA, Mississippi State, Louisville, NcState, and (dark horse) Iowa.

Louisville and NcState's remaining schedule looks... not bad. Both favored to win all their remaining games except for potentially 2 more matches with each other. If they split the series, then... I dunno how they distinguish the 2 teams.

Maryland has been treated well this year by the committee and they're also favored for all their remaining games 'cept Iowa - and if Iowa wins, they might have the edge in the Big 10 race. So that's why I think Iowa still has a chance for #1. And Fort Wayne is not *too* far from Iowa City, so there's another reason.

UCLA and Stanford has some tough competition remaining. If UCLA beats Oregon I think they'll probably look like they deserve that last spot and they already have that win over Stanford. (and don't necessarily have to play them again) Same for Stanford except a way tougher schedule. No way they're getting out of those last games without a loss. But that win over Mississippi State is looking great right now with them rising in the polls.

Missisisippi State's good thing is that they still have ranked opponents left..... like Arkansas, Kentucky and possibly those 2 again in the tournament plus the other ranked teams they just beat. Most people think they'll take care of all of those and lose to South Carolina in the final game. However, if they beat South Carolina..... it's really possible they could bee #1 depending on what the ACC, Big 10, and Pac 12 (besides Oregon) does.

Great point about UConn. I forgot all about that. If one of the teams from the PAC 12 (other than Oregon), SEC (other than South Carolina). ACC or Big 10 can win out, that is probably the fourth #1 seed.

 

[Centerstream]

MD and NC State have already been anointed by Charlie Creme. Until he changes his mind, I am guessing that it will be between those 2.
Personally, as of today, I agree with one and totally disagree with the other.

 

[Shades]

MD and NC State have already been anointed by Charlie Creme. Until he changes his mind, I am guessing that it will be between those 2.
Personally, as of today, I agree with one and totally disagree with the other.

Current data on both
Maryland RPI #3 SOS #4
NCSU RPI #13 SOS #73

So I wonder which is the less deserving of anointment?

 

[Centerstream]

Current data on both
Maryland RPI #3 SOS #4
NCSU RPI #13 SOS #73

So I wonder which is the less deserving of anointment?

I didn't say that either was less deserving, it's my personal opinion on a certain school that led to my post.
"Metrics" don't matter to me, again, for personal reasons.

 

[JonathanXIV]

Who knows, if Maryland wins out and several teams ahead of them lose a couple of games, they could get the #1 seed because of their strong RPI and SOS.

Help me. Who has Maryland beat this year?

 

[TerpWomenFan]

Help me. Who has Maryland beat this year?

At this point, Indiana (twice) and Northwestern). They have 9 top 50 wins on their resume. Most against Big 10 teams. Their best non conference win is against James Madison (#43)

Both Maryland and NC State have a chance at great resume wins on Thursday.

 

[JonathanXIV]

At this point, Indiana (twice) and Northwestern). They have 9 top 50 wins on their resume. Most against Big 10 teams. Their best non conference win is against James Madison (#43)

Both Maryland and NC State have a chance at great resume wins on Thursday.

Thanks, but I'm not impressed with the "top 50" wins claim. I think talent thins out fast after the top 10 or 15. And I don't think Maryland has a top 10 win. On the other hand, neither does UConn.

 

[LETTERL]

If Stanford runs the table against that schedule they have remaining, they will have earned that fourth #1 seed.

 

[TerpWomenFan]

Thanks, but I'm not impressed with the "top 50" wins claim. I think talent thins out fast after the top 10 or 15. And I don't think Maryland has a top 10 win. On the other hand, neither does UConn.

If Maryland can beat Iowa on Thursday, that will be their first top 10 win. Indiana and Northwestern are #15 and #16.

 

[Shades]

If Stanford runs the table against that schedule they have remaining, they will have earned that fourth #1 seed.

Mighty big IF

 

[Shades]

If Maryland can beat Iowa on Thursday, that will be their first top 10 win. Indiana and Northwestern are #15 and #16.

They also swept Ohio State and Michigan.

 

[Lwrc]

Mighty big IF

I think Stanford can afford to lose one in the hard Pac-12 and still get the #1 seed.
My best guess is that Stanford or Maryland get the spot

 

[bballnut90]

That is going to be the debate for the rest of the season. Let's start with what we know.

South Carolina, Baylor and Oregon are locks for a #1 seed in the tournament unless something unforeseen happens.

The battle for the last one could be a doozy. Stanford, NC State, Louisville, Uconn, Mississippi State could all be in the mix.

Unless something unusual happens, UConn will win their remaining games. Louisville and/or NC State will have at least one loss (or two). Mississippi State could lose to South Carolina again. Stanford have Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA and the Arizona teams to worry about.

It will be a tough decision for the NCAA committee to determine that fourth #1 seed.

Who knows, if Maryland wins out and several teams ahead of them lose a couple of games, they could get the #1 seed because of their strong RPI and SOS.

UCONN is out of the running IMO unless something strange happens. They just don't have any chances left to boost their stock playing in the AAC, where the other schools all have great opportunities to get big resume boosting wins.

NC State and Maryland are top contenders if they win out rest of the way. NC State has a tough game on Thursday vs. Louisville who has Balogun back. I'm not sure how it works, but Louisville and Stanford may not be penalized as harshly for losses since Jones/Balogun were out.

UCLA can jump to 1 if they lose just 1 more game the rest of the way (which will likely require wins over Oregon schools and another Stanford meeting. Same with Stanford which means they'll need to beat both Oregon schools, both AZ schools on the road, beat UCLA in the PAC 12 semis. Wont be easy.

Lots of big games left so who knows what'll happen, but right now it looks to me like:

Locks: South Carolina, Oregon, Baylor
Top Finalists: Maryland, NC State
Outside looking in it: UCLA, Louisville (need to win out and hope committee isn't harsh on them for losing with EB out), Stanford
Long shot: UCONN, Mississippi State, Arizona, Northwestern

 

[triaddukefan]

I know alot of State fans want the #2 seed in Greenville so that they can easily attend, but its probably better to be the #1 seed in Fort Wayne.

 

[LETTERL]

I know alot of State fans want the #2 seed in Greenville so that they can easily attend, but its probably better to be the #1 seed in Fort Wayne.

Since I live in Greenville, yes, I would be satisfied with being the 2 in the Greenville Regional (assuming we make it to the second weekend)...but, on the other hand, NC State has never ever been a 1-seed in the NCAAT, so there is that option that also seems tempting. I just wouldn't be able to go to Ft. Wayne and would go the regional here without a real rooting interest for any of the teams.

 

[Plebe]

Since I live in Greenville, yes, I would be satisfied with being the 2 in the Greenville Regional (assuming we make it to the second weekend)...but, on the other hand, NC State has never ever been a 1-seed in the NCAAT, so there is that option that also seems tempting. I just wouldn't be able to go to Ft. Wayne and would go the regional here without a real rooting interest for any of the teams.

Well, which would you rather have? Be able to watch your team lose in person, or watch them on TV have a realistic chance of making the FF?

 

[Gamecockfan77]

If Stanford runs the table against that schedule they have remaining, they will have earned that fourth #1 seed.

Or UCLA.

probably not likely.