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Message: [QUOTE="DocStressor, post: 3807866, member: 10851"] Postponing the season would only make sense if the rate of COVID-19 cases was substantially lower at whatever time play was resumed. I would think that March would probably be the latest that a conference could open back up. Given the characteristics of a typical epidemic, we might only expect a decline from 250,000 to 100,000 new cases per day by then. We are currently seeing a surge that began when the weather cooled down in October. The rate of increase was accelerated by the Thanksgiving-NewYears holidays. New cases seem to be leveling out or starting a decline about now. As you can see from the case pattern, each wave approximates a bell-shaped normal distribution. The decline of the first 2 waves is generally accounted for by changes in the weather and better human behavior. The current wave will be mitigated by the beginning of vaccinations, an increase in the percentage of the population that has already been infected and are now resistant, and warmer weather. However, the introduction of new strains that are more infectious, will slow the decline. Since college-age kids will not be vaccinated in any number until late spring, I don't know if postponing the season would work. [ATTACH type="full"]63538[/ATTACH] [/QUOTE]