Scouting Marquette

[Hey Adrien!]

I'm weeding through the hot takes, moving onto the next game.

Here's my scouting report for Marquette. As always, major credit to kenpom.com for all national rates quoted here:

Roster Report:

• Greg Elliott has worked his way back to game shape (12.6 mpg in 7 games, but 20 ppg and 27 mpg in last two) so Shaka Smart has switched into an 8-man rotation with freshmen Stevie Mitchell, David Joplin and Emarion Ellis barely, if ever, seeing the floor.
• Their lineups include:
  • A timeshare between two offensively limited, 0 3PA centers. Kuath is their elite shot blocker (6.2b per 40). Both bigs are athletic.
  • Justin Lewis at the 4. (Uber-athletic OM Prosper spells Lewis and also plays a tiny bit of 3)
  • Three guards ranging from 6’3 180 (Elliott) to 6’5 205 (Morsell). 13% of the time, Prosper plays as their 3rd forward.

Offense - 105th KenPom

• Lewis (15.3) and Morsell (13.8) are their leading scorers.
• In typical Shaka Smart fashion, the team is 3rd nationally in offense tempo (average offensive possession is 14.5 seconds)
• They shoot a fun of threes. 45.4% of shots are from 3 (40th rate in nation), but they are not making their shots (31.8 3p%).
  • I see this trending up with a healthy Greg Elliott back plus Tyler Kolek is shooting well below his rate from last year (21.8% vs 35.8% last year).
• They do a good job getting to the line (64th nationally in FTA/FGA rate), thanks mostly to Lewis and Morsell (combined 106 FTA in 12 games).
• 64.8% of FGM are from dimes (5th rate in nation), which shows good team ball movement and a lack of iso in their game plan.
• Awful offensive rebounding team. Their 22.7% O-Rebounding rate is 315th in the nation
  • (come on down, Sanogo/Whaley/Martin/Jackson)!

Defense - 61st in KenPom

• Darryl Morsell is the reigning Big Ten DPOY. Plus tough-as-nails defense w/o generating turnovers (1.1 combined blocks + steals).
• I’ve already mentioned Kuath as their elite shot blocker (6.2b per 40).
• The Havoc Pressure Defense Smart used in VCU is more of the thing of the past. It lives on at VCU, but Smart’s teams don’t generate turnovers like they used to.
  • Currently, Marquette is 171st nationally in turnover rate and Smart had just one top-100 turnover rate season at Texas.
• Pretty good interior defense. Opponents 2p% is 46.6% (87th in nation).
• Their opponents shoot 61.4% from FT (5th in nation) and their FTA/FGA rate is the 202nd lowest in the league, which suggests they play “hack-a-[insert the poor shooting post player]”
• They are not a good defensive rebounding team (189th nationally in defensive rebound rate).

Matchups I want to exploit

• Whaley is the perfect defensive matchup playing against Justin Lewis. He'll be super valuable on that end.
• Assuming Sanogo plays, he returns with a relatively easy defensive assignment matched up with two underwhelming offensive centers. Watching Ed Freakin' Croswell score 11 points in 15 minutes last night had me pining for Sanogo so hard. If I'm Hurley, I try to play Sanogo 100% of the time when Ighodaro is on the floor and 100% of his rest when Kuath is on the floor. Kuath has never player more than 29 minutes in a game.
• Morsell is a defensive stud, and I expect him to smother whoever he is guarding, but he can't guard all three of the guards we play with. I'm excited to see how we can open up opportunities for whoever Morsell is not guarding.

 

[Jumpman62114]

If I’m Marquette, I put Morsell on Cole and cut the head of the snake knowing we dont have many other ball handlers. We’ll need Tyrese to step up offensively.

 

[Watchdog]

If these type reports come in on every opponent in the NBE, we may not win a game......

 

[CaptainRon]

This is not the AAC. There are no gimmies. Even the bottom teams here now can come up and bite your ass. Top game all the time or….

 

[tykurez]

This is not the AAC. There are no gimmies. Even the bottom teams here now can come up and bite your ass. Top game all the time or….

Unfortunately for us, there were never any gimmies in the aac either.

 

[WestHartHusk]

The biggest match up i am going to be watching is Shaka v DH. Obvious advantage to Marquette, but maybe DH can put together a game plan to score 60...more likely he is focused on scheming to hold MU in the 40s so we have a chance.

 

[LIuconn]

Seriously. We never won the league

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Stevie Mitchell is gonna score 30 points on 5/7 from 3

 

[elmcityboy]

thanks for these. hopefully we can own the glass in this one.

i can't believe we have morsell in our league now after what maryland did to us in the tournament. brutal. that being said, if he guards cole, is kolek guarding martin? jackson? we should have some matchups that we can exploit.

 

[bendm]

Pressure pressure

 

[Hey Adrien!]

Updated Report:

Marquette 16-7 overall, 8-4 in Big East. #25 in KenPom ranking;
+51 KenPom improvement since we last played them.

Schedule Analysis

• 8-3 since we’ve last played them
• Last loss: 1/30 @ Providence (63-65)

Roster Report:

• Over the last five games, their most common lineup is Kolek/Morsell/Prosper/Lewis/Kuath (25.2% of possessions).
• 43% of their possessions have OM Prosper (6’8 220) at the 3, so lots of size for about ½ of the game.
• Minutes-per-game are averages across the last five games.
  • Stats below player are full season stats

Offense - 59th in KenPom; (105th last time we played them).

What I write in bold are changes since we’ve last played.

• In typical Shaka Smart fashion, the team is 3rd nationally in offense tempo (average offensive possession is 14.5 seconds). (Now the team is 8th in offensive tempo)
• They shoot a fun of threes. 45.4% of shots are from 3 (40th rate in nation), but they are not making their shots (31.8 3p%). They are now shooting less threes (92nd in 3pa/fga) but are shooting at a better clip (39.3% in Big East play).
• They do a good job getting to the line (64th nationally in FTA/FGA rate), thanks mostly to Lewis and Morsell (combined 106 FTA in 12 games). This rate has gone down a lot. Their FTA/FGA rate is now 247th in the nation.
• 64.8% of FGM are from dimes (5th rate in nation), which shows good team ball movement and a lack of iso in their game plan. Still a major part of the offensive plan. 6th in the nation now.
• Awful offensive rebounding team. Their 22.7% O-Rebounding rate is 315th in the nation (come on down, Sanogo/Whaley/Martin/Jackson! They are still the exact ranking nationally

Defense - 23rd in KenPom (61st last time we played them)

What I write in bold are changes since we’ve last played.

• The Havoc Pressure Defense Smart used in VCU is more of the thing of the past. It lives on at VCU, but Smart’s teams don’t generate turnovers like they used to. Currently, Marquette is 171st nationally in turnover rate and Smart had just one top-100 turnover rate season at Texas. That rate has gone up to 137th in the nation.
• Pretty good interior defense. Opponents 2p% is 46.6% (87th in nation). It’s gotten better. The 2p% defense is now 45.1%, which is 24th in the nation.
• Their opponents shoot 61.4% from FT (5th in nation) and their FTA/FGA rate is the 202nd lowest in the league, which suggests they play “hack-a-[insert the poor shooting post player]” Still relevant. Opponents ft% is just 66.9%, 23rd lowest in the nation.
• They are not a good defensive rebounding team (189th nationally in defensive rebound rate). That’s gotten worse: their defensive rebounding rate is 292nd.
• Maybe I skipped over this last time, but their perimeter D is (or has gotten) very good: opponents shoot 30.8 from three, which is 51st lowest in the nation.

Tuesday is an excellent opportunity for a very good win and a major shift in momentum. Arguably, the most important game of the season so far.

Huskies!!!

 

[Giddyup5]

Thank you for all these write ups!

We need a good fan support in Hartford.

I hope we took today off for film and Hurley has Monday’s practice at XL. Maybe even a light shoot around tonight at XL if allowed by ncaa rules after the girls game and stay in Hartford Hotel.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Kur Kuath about to go for 19 and 15

 

[UCLJ0211]

I don’t remember- but were they missing one of their top players the last time we played them?

 

[Giddyup5]

I don’t remember- but were they missing one of their top players the last time we played them?

Morsell