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Message: [QUOTE="nelsonmuntz, post: 4489384, member: 833"] You, like many, do not understand conditional probability. It doesn’t need to go much deeper than that with you. For everyone else: All 3 pointers are not created equal statistically, but to many coaches, they are the same shot. For example, a pull up 3 off 2 dribbles or more is probably 5 to 10 points less likely to go in than a catch and shoot 3. That is the case for most above average college 3 point shooters. Vital and Cole were perfect examples of this. They were much more accurate off the catch than off the dribble. Most offenses do not differentiate. Jay Wright did, and had Villanova shoot a lot off the catch, but you apparently know better than Jay Wright. Proximity of defender is another key factor. A 5 out offense actually makes it easier for defenses to rotate to shooters because the gap between shooters is smaller if there are 5 shooters on the perimeter. More 3 point shooters on the perimeter actually leads to lower quality 3 point shots. 4 and 5 out defenses typically result in 1 or 2 offensive players in the corner. Those players are not available for rebounds and they are as far away from defending their own basket as they can possibly be. A lot of college offenses generate corner 3's, but the Conditional Probability analysis should be what happens to the other team's offensive possession after a missed corner 3. I suspect their PPP is pretty high after a missed 3. 4 and 5 out offenses are designed to create penetration by pulling defenders away from the basket, but playing a simple stretch zone or a man-gap defense can make penetration very difficult, resulting in traps, turnovers and long contested 2's. I actually don't understand why teams still play deny man-to-man because they are open to back doors and the shot clock is more effective at preventing passes than any off-the-ball defender would be. Erik Spoelstra took a mediocre Miami Heat team to the NBA Championship in 2020 by beating very strong Bucks and Celtics teams with a simple stretch 2-3 zone designed to stop 4 and 5 out defenses. That is just part of the Conditional Probability analysis that needs to be done on standard offenses before a message board "expert" like you can assert that more 3's are better. I don't have time to address the conditional probability analysis needed for 2 pointers right now. [/QUOTE]

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