Sagarins, Week 1 | The Boneyard

Sagarins, Week 1

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Vowelguy

Vowelguy

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  1. SEC 80.9
  2. B12 80.7
  3. Pac 77.5
  4. B10 76.7
  5. ACC 74.4
  6. BgE 73.4
  7. Mtn 67.1
  8. CUS 65.1
  9. MAC 60.9
  10. WAC 58.6
So BigE not quite falling away from the pack.
The NewACC drops a full point to 73.4, while the 2013 BE slips only 0.8 to 72.7, shrinking the gap.

MtnWest takes a deeper hit, tumbling more than 2 points to 64.8.
 
Sagarin is weighted at this time. After four games there is enough cross reference to use on 2012 information. Until then anti-BE in the preseason ratings bias will hold us back.
 
vowelguy said:
  1. SEC 80.9
  2. B12 80.7
  3. Pac 77.5
  4. B10 76.7
  5. ACC 74.4
  6. BgE 73.4
  7. Mtn 67.1
  8. CUS 65.1
  9. MAC 60.9
  10. WAC 58.6
So BigE not quite falling away from the pack.

The NewACC drops a full point to 73.4, while the 2013 BE slips only 0.8 to 72.7, shrinking the gap.

MtnWest takes a deeper hit, tumbling more than 2 points to 64.8.
Expand ...

Quick take is that the gap from #1 to #6 (7.5 pts) is the essentially the same as the gap from #6-#7 (7.3 pts) and that the ACC is closer to the BE than it is to the B10 at #4.
 
Chin Diesel said:
Quick take is that the gap from #1 to #6 (7.5 pts) is the essentially the same as the gap from #6-#7 (7.3 pts) and that the ACC is closer to the BE than it is to the B10 at #4.
Expand ...
yep.
 
Chin Diesel said:
Quick take is that the gap from #1 to #6 (7.5 pts) is the essentially the same as the gap from #6-#7 (7.3 pts) and that the ACC is closer to the BE than it is to the B10 at #4.
Expand ...

+ ACC/BE gap is on pace* to get smaller next year
+ BE gap with the rest is expected to get wider

(* admittedly very early)
 
Chin Diesel said:
Quick take is that the gap from #1 to #6 (7.5 pts) is the essentially the same as the gap from #6-#7 (7.3 pts) and that the ACC is closer to the BE than it is to the B10 at #4.
Expand ...

Actually only 6.3.

But projection for next year is 8.3 & 8.6, respectively.
 
Tell me in October. Not to bust on the OP, but even Dan Sagarin himself would tell you that his numbers aren't worth a damn this early in the season.
 
businesslawyer said:
Tell me in October. Not to bust on the OP, but even Dan Sagarin himself would tell you that his numbers aren't worth a damn this early in the season.
Expand ...

Hence my use of,
"week 1"
"admittedly very early"
 
businesslawyer said:
Tell me in October. Not to bust on the OP, but even Dan Sagarin himself would tell you that his numbers aren't worth a damn this early in the season.
Expand ...

What would Jeff Sagarin say? :)
I might propose that the Sagarins aren't a good ranking system anyway....
 
whaler11 said:
What would Jeff Sagarin say? :)
I might propose that the Sagarins aren't a good ranking system anyway....
Expand ...

I was fine getting chided for screwing up players names. But I can safely tell you I care not a whit what Sagarin's first name is. LOL.
 
businesslawyer said:
I really wasn't being critical of you. I appreciate you doing the work.

Just making a point.
Expand ...

No prob.
It's a point worth emphasizing. I work with data for a living, so I'm well aware of the weaknesses this early in the year, but others may not be.
 
pj said:
More significantly, Sagarin has moved UConn up to #46, ahead of NC State.

Most other ratings services still list UConn behind NC State: consensus is UConn #62, NC State #59. http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm
Expand ...

I've loved that page for years... basically every imaginable methodology for ranking a football team all in one place.. it's absurdly awesome.
 
Ok, using the composite ratings...

current
(central mean)
  1. B12 25.5
  2. SEC 30.5
  3. B10 43.0
  4. PAC 49.1
  5. ACC 51.8
  6. BgE 55.1
  7. MWC 81.4
  8. CUS 84.5
  9. MAC 90.3
  10. WAC 92.2
  11. SUN 94.6

based on 2013 membership
(central mean)
  1. B12 25.5
  2. SEC 30.5
  3. B10 43.0
  4. PAC 49.1
  5. BgE 56.1 <--- what is this?? :)
  6. ACC 57.1
  7. MWC 85.4
  8. CUS 89.3
  9. MAC 90.3
  10. SUN 95.8
 
vowelguy said:
Ok, using the composite ratings...

current
(central mean)
  1. B12 25.5
  2. SEC 30.5
  3. B10 43.0
  4. PAC 49.1
  5. ACC 51.8
  6. BgE 55.1
  7. MWC 81.4
  8. CUS 84.5
  9. MAC 90.3
  10. WAC 92.2
  11. SUN 94.6

based on 2013 membership
(central mean)
  1. B12 25.5
  2. SEC 30.5
  3. B10 43.0
  4. PAC 49.1
  5. BgE 56.1 <--- what is this?? :)
  6. ACC 57.1
  7. MWC 85.4
  8. CUS 89.3
  9. MAC 90.3
  10. SUN 95.8
Expand ...

Shhhhh, it's supposed to be a secret.
 
COMPOSITE RANKINGS

(Negative percentage change below means conference rating got _stronger_ since last week)

2012 Members

B12 23.2 -9%
SEC 33.8 11%
P12 42.2 -14%
B10 46.5 8%
ACC 53.7 4%
BE 60.5 10%
MWC 83.3 2%
CUSA 86.3 2%
WAC 87.7 -5%
SBC 91.1 -4%
MAC 92.3 2%

2013 Members

B12 23.2 -9%
SEC 33.8 11%
P12 42.2 -14%
B10 46.5 8%
ACC 58.6 3%
BE 61.2 9%
MWC 84.6 -1%
CUSA 89.3 0%
MAC 92.3 2%
SBC 92.5 -3%


Losses dropped BE down significantly, but still miles ahead of MWC. PAC lept B10 with strong weak.
 
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