RPI Forecast

[tzznandrew]

So, rpiforecast.com has been posted here before, and it seems pretty legitimate.

Right now, if we lose tonight, it suggests our RPI will settle at 25. If we beat Cincy, it suggests at 17 or 18 (17.5). And if we were to beat Louisville, it suggests it would settle at about 11 (10.9).

Not bad.

 

[alexd]

hard to believe it can jump that much after 30+ games.

 

[upstater]

So, rpiforecast.com has been posted here before, and it seems pretty legitimate.

Right now, if we lose tonight, it suggests our RPI will settle at 25. If we beat Cincy, it suggests at 17 or 18 (17.5). And if we were to beat Louisville, it suggests it would settle at about 11 (10.9).

Not bad.

Win the conference tourney and UConn is a 3 seed.

 

[tzznandrew]

hard to believe it can jump that much after 30+ games.

We jumped 3-4 spots beating Memphis, who is only in the Top 40. Beat a Top 15, and Top 25 team--especially while everyone is taking losses--and I think it actually can happen.

 

[Nnocu]

Win the conference tourney and UConn is a 3 seed.

You really think so? It seemed like the consensus around here was that our ceiling is a 4 seed.

 

[upstater]

You really think so? It seemed like the consensus around here was that our ceiling is a 4 seed.

Winning a conference with 5 solid teams, beating Florida, Indiana, Maryland, Washington, Memphis (3), Cincy (2), Louisville, and with losses to Stanford (now a tourney team), and Houston (no longer 150+), yes I do believe that's a 3 seed.

 

[tzznandrew]

You really think so? It seemed like the consensus around here was that our ceiling is a 4 seed.

I think 4 seed is likely the highest, although I'm not entirely sure on that. Let's game it out, and imagine they win out. That puts them at 27-7 with 4 Top 25 wins (one of which is against the #1 overall seed); they'd be 8-4 against the RPI top 50, and have 12 Top 100 RPI wins, and 1 bad loss. That's a pretty darn good resume.

Duke, for instance, depending on when they lose, is still supposedly in consideration for a 2 seed (I think 3 is their ceiling). Let's say in the Finals against Virginia. They'd have 6 Top 25 wins, be 7-5 against the RPI Top 50, and have 12 Top 100 RPI wins...in addition to 2 bad losses.

Those resumes are nearly indistinguishable.

 

[MilliniumPrince]

If we beat Memphis, Cincy, and L'ville I think we get a 3 seed too.

 

[aceboon]

figured this was the best thread to throw this in, St Louis just lost to St Bonaventure and they were on the 5 line in most brackets, I can't see how a win vs Cincy doesn't lock us up for at least a 5 seed.

 

[SirHypeAlot]

agreed ace.

A Pitt win over UNC would be nice too.

 

[champs99and04]

Just now seeing this after I created a similar one, good analysis of the situation. I think we probably get a five even if we lose tonight.

 

[alexd]

things sure have turned for mighty St Louis....that's 4 losses in 5 games.