Results that Matter Today (3/12)

[tzznandrew]

It's a smaller lineup of bubble teams today.

Obvious

UConn over Temple

Our RPI is up to 42. Their's is still 60, and their advanced metrics suck. They likely need this game more than we do at this point, but I'd rather just be positive of our inclusion. Get the win.
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Bubble Teams

Michigan vs. Purdue

Michigan's RPI is up to 55. If they win they're certainly Top 50. That said, if they win they're definitely on the bubble. If we beat Temple, I think pulling for Michigan is probably the right call, if we lose, Purdue. Unfortunately our game tips when their game ends...so depends on how confident you feel after playing 3 halves of basketball. FYI: Our resume is better than theirs, and we have a head-to-head win against them.
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Texas A&M over LSU

A win breathes some small life into LSU's bubble chances. Do the right thing, A&M, and smother them in their cradle.
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Dayton over St. Joe's

Everyone thinks St. Joe's is a lock despite their best RPI OOC win coming against Princeton. They have 2 Top 50 wins, and if Buffalo loses to Akron, 6 Top 100. Their resume beyond RPI is thin. Go Dayton and go Akron.
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San Diego State over Fresno

The MWC sucks, and SDSU is the only good team in it. They probably wouldn't make it in with a loss, but why let the committee consider them?
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[mcs333]

I think we want Mich. to lose as we are competing against them for a spot in the tournament. Also want LSU and Georgia to lose.

 

[Gurleyman]

I feel like our win over Michigan - with Lavert - should be treated as a top 50 type of win. Most of their struggles came when they lost him.

 

[Obrero]

Thanks for posting this. And I love that line:

Texas A&M over LSU
A win breathes some small life into LSU's bubble chances. Do the right thing, A&M, and smother them in their cradle.

 

[tzznandrew]

I think we want Mich. to lose as we are competing against them for a spot in the tournament. Also want LSU and Georgia to lose.

An LSU/Georgia SEC final would be bad for all bubble teams.

Georgia/Kentucky should have been on that list. We definitely want Kentucky to win that game.

 

[whaler11]

It's going to be the most interesting selection show in a long time.

Lot of things fell right for UConn yesterday. I disagree on Michigan - would rather just see them lose than continue to improve their own case.

 

[tzznandrew]

It's going to be the most interesting selection show in a long time.

Lot of things fell right for UConn yesterday. I disagree on Michigan - would rather just see them lose than continue to improve their own case.

That's fair. And if we lose to Temple today, then an Indiana win would have been better yesterday.

I just thought we were above the cut before the game yesterday (and a loss might have moved us below it), and with the win we're pretty far away from the cut. Hope I'm right on that.

 

[Rico444]

At this point, I'll only feel comfortable if we win the whole thing. We're probably in if we lose, but I'm concerned about beating Temple and then losing to Memphis or Tulane. I feel like that would be worse than just losing to Temple.

 

[tzznandrew]

At this point, I'll only feel comfortable if we win the whole thing. We're probably in if we lose, but I'm concerned about beating Temple and then losing to Memphis or Tulane. I feel like that would be worse than just losing to Temple.

That's what people who wanted Tulsa and Houston to lose were missing: suddenly if they get to the title game there's a land-mine. Also, if Tulsa made the AAC final, there was an outside chance the league got 4 teams. Now the mostly likely outcome if 2, I think, since I'm bearish on Temple.

 

[storrsroars]

Just to be on the safe side, I'd add:

Stephen F. Austin (RPI 76, KenPom 35) over TX A&M CC. Yes, it should be a one-bid conference. But several metrics really like SFA. So let them win it all.

Stony Brook over Vermont. Again, shouldn't matter as Stony Brook's resume is barely bubble worthy, but if Syracuse is still under consideration by anyone on the committee, then Stony Brook probably has a fan or two as well.

Arkansas Little Rock (RPI 50, KenPom 57) over LA Lafayette PLUS whomever reaches championship tomorrow: AR Little Rock is probably the most worrisome of potential bubble adds, behind only Michigan. They'd make as good or better a case than Monmouth or Valpo as being a token 2nd bid from a 1-bid conference.

Akron over Buffalo (RPI 29, KenPom 82). I don't think Akron's advanced metrics are any good, but if there are those on the committee who live and die by RPI, better that Akron just take the MAC.

 

[Matrim55]

I'm 100% convinced we're in regardless, so I'm rooting for all the bubble teams because I definitely, definitely, definitely want Syracuse to be out.

 

[Sphinx]

At this point, I'll only feel comfortable if we win the whole thing. We're probably in if we lose, but I'm concerned about beating Temple and then losing to Memphis or Tulane. I feel like that would be worse than just losing to Temple.

The single worst thing that could happen to the AAC and all its NCAA contenders is for Memphis (or Tulane) to win it all. I don't think UConn gets in if they lose to Temple and Temple loses tomorrow. I do think UConn can survive a loss today if Temple goes on to win tomorrow.

 

[HuskyHawk]

The single worst thing that could happen to the AAC and all its NCAA contenders is for Memphis (or Tulane) to win it all. I don't think UConn gets in if they lose to Temple and Temple loses tomorrow. I do think UConn can survive a loss today if Temple goes on to win tomorrow.

Holy crap. I had no idea that both Houston and Tulsa lost. So if UConn wins today, we likely win the tournament and are playing for seeding. If so, I think I'll be pulling for Michigan to improve our resume.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Michigan is Lunardi's 1st out (4 spots behind us); LSU is Lunardi's 5th out (8 spots behind us), both with cracks at Top 20 scalps (plus an opportunity to fully steal a bid tomorrow), and both in tight games right now.

We need both to lose to feel secure about our position in the event of a loss today.

 

[Silk31]

LSU is doing LSU things vs the Aggies. They absolutely suck but let's remove all committee temptation to get the Golden Boy into the field

 

[Waquoit]

The single worst thing that could happen to the AAC and all its NCAA contenders is for Memphis (or Tulane) to win it all. I don't think UConn gets in if they lose to Temple and Temple loses tomorrow. I do think UConn can survive a loss today if Temple goes on to win tomorrow.

That's my one fear. That if we lose today and Temple loses tomorrow, the winner takes our bid.

 

[junglehusky]

LSU is doing LSU things vs the Aggies. They absolutely suck but let's remove all committee temptation to get the Golden Boy into the field

Wow 13 points at the half. That is fugly.

 

[UConnRock]

LSU scored 13 in 1st half and is down 22. Let's put the Ben Simmons in the NCAAs fantasy to pasture. Michigan down 8 at half. Would rather have them lose than sneak in.

 

[JonnyRI]

An LSU/Georgia SEC final would be bad for all bubble teams.

Georgia/Kentucky should have been on that list. We definitely want Kentucky to win that game.

Don't think I could ever, ever actually want Kentucky to win a game.

 

[Tenspro2002]

All right, both A&M and Purdue are looking pretty good, each up 17+.