Replacing Stef and Bria...part 2 - Scoring....

[DavidinNaples]

In the 2013/14 season, the UConn Huskies scored 3,283 points (82.1 per game) in route to a 40-0 record and 9th National Championship. That total was 65 pts more than in 2012/13, although last year's average was slightly higher at 82.5 per, in one less game. Still, the 3,283 pts this year was remarkable considering the issues faced by the offense:
1. KML, last year's leading scorer, was injured several times during the season and scored 296 fewer pts this year.
2. Morgan Tuck, the first option of the bench and a powerful force in the paint, missed almost the whole season and scored only 60 pts. (Last year she had 225 pts in 35 games.)
3. With KML out, Bria Hartley led the team in 3 pt attempts w/ 224, but was less accurate at only 36.6% vs 49.2% for Kaleena.
4. With injuries and an inconsistent bench,UConn's production from reserves fell to under 600 pts vs over 800 in 2012/13.

As UConn always does, the issues impacting scoring were addressed and solved. Stewie stepped up and scored 280 more pts than last year. MoJeff also responded with 218 additional pts. Most of all, Bria assumed more offensive responsibility and finished 305 pts ahead of her 2012/13 total. With Dolson pretty much matching last year's output w/ 498 pts, those four warriors started all 40 games, played 62% of the team's minutes and scored 71% of UConn's total points. Since Dolson and Hartley scored 1,145 pts, the challenge next year is formitable w/ 35% of the offense now playing in the WNBA. That comes to 28 pts/game that needs to be replaced.

As several astute BYers have already observed, the defense may actually improve slightly next season w/ Kiah Stokes replacing Dolson, Stewie and MoJeff back and better, KML & Tuck healthy and four athletic freshman joining Brianna Banks and Saniya Chong. Better defense can often lead to more steals, opportunities to full court press, added trunovers and/or more fast break points. All this would help the offense. At the very least, lowering last year's 47.8 pts against average per game may lessen the need to replace all of the scoring lost w/ Stef and Bria.

Here are five possible sources for covering the 1,145 pts lost to graduation:
1. A healthy KML and Morgan Tuck would be a great start for making up some of that scoring . Just equaling their 2012/13 totals would add close to 500 pts.
2. MoJeff averaged 10.0 pts per game on 57.5% accuracy. However, she took only 273 shots vs 511 for Hartley. Shooting more, with her accuracy, would probably add 4-6 pts to her average and 160-220 to her total scoring.
3. Kiah Stokes may surprise this year w/ improved offense. She had 90 offensive rebounds in just 723 minutes of play. Only Stewie had more w/ 92, but that was in 1,221 minutes. Look for many of Kiah's points to come off short putbacks from offensive rebounds and additional free throws as teams struggle to handle her size and strength.
4. Saniya Chong and Brianna Banks scored 313 combined pts last season in 1,192 minutes. However, together they missed 94 three pointers on 31% accuracy. Between those two, Courtney Ekmark, Kia Nurse and the other freshman, UConn will need more shooting and better accuracy to make up 1/2 of Bria's 16 pt average.
5. Stewie. Just watch and smile.

UConn beat all forty opponents last year by an average of over 34 points/game. If the defense improves, even slightly, UConn may not even need to replace all the 1,145 pts that graduated. But, a healthy KML and Tuck, further improvement from MoJeff and Stewie, added scoring from Kiah and potent scorers coming off the bench could all lessen the loss of Stef and Bria and keep the scoring average over 80 pts /game. That should do the trick.

Go Huskies..!!

 

[UcMiami]

Nice post David - but I think it is better to look at shots taken than specifically points scored when assessing what next years offense will look like. Last year the offense was broken down to 1117 (45%) shots taken by forwards/centers and 1370 (55%) by guards/wings. With Stef (367) and Bria (511) gone we are looking at adding 367 (Stef) forward/center shots and 511 (Bria) guard/wing shots.
The returning F/C players:
Stewart 586 - 14.65
Stokes 115 - 2.875
Tuck 49 - 1.225 (6.125)
Stef took 9.175 shots per game. Geno talked about Stewart taking 20 shots a game (hyperbole I think) but she average 14.65 last year. I think realistically increasing that to about 17 is likely. Stokes playing significantly more minutes per game should probably get up to around 6 shots per game and Tuck when healthy was getting 6 shots per game. If she is healthy she should be at about that level. Those three would be an increase of 10 shots per game replacing Stef's production. If Tuck is not healthy, then Kaleena is going to be forced to become more of a '4' player on offense - something she was already doing last year with Tuck out.
The returning G/W players:
Jefferson 273 - 6.825
Kaleena 299 - 7.745 (10.679)
Chong 143 - 3.575
Banks 103 - 2.575
Lawlor/Pulido 41 - 1.025
Bria took 12.775 shots per game. Jefferson adding a few shots per game, Kaleena playing a full season at more like 12 shots per game account for six of Bria's shots. A mixture of Chong and Banks and the new freshman depending on how those Bria minutes (31.9 min/g) get split up will fill in the other 7 shots.
The big question mark in my mind is how well Tuck recovers - if she has physical limitations then in the above analysis more of Kaleena's production gets shifted to the forward column and we end up relying more on Chong, Banks, and the freshman for the wing/guard production.

I actually don't see a big deal here - Stokes led the team in FG % and the mixture of Stokes/Stewart/Tuck (and Kaleena as necessary) should prove about as efficient as Stef was last year. Moriah shot 100 points higher than Bria (.575 vs. .470) and Kaleena and Banks were also more efficient so the guard/wing offensive production should also be comparably efficient even if Chong and all the freshman struggle (and I expect Chong to be significantly better as a sophomore and have high hopes one or more freshman will prove efficient.)

As a side note - Stewart actually struggled all year with her outside shot - I think she may improve that efficiency. She has been more focused on expanding her inside game her first two years. It appears the coaches want her to focus more on her floor game this off season.