Reminder of NET vs. AP Rankings for NCAAT seeding

[DefenseBB]

As we just came off a big and much needed victory over Tennessee to aid our seeding and the fact the new polls came out today with us at #8, I want to remind everyone, specifically the less adroit forum members (like my wife) that AP ranking does not correlate to NCAA Seeding which uses NET, first used last year (after using RPI), however NET is not the sole tool.
Specifically, here is the WCBB Selection committee wording:
"The NET is not the sole factor for NCAA tournament selection, of course, just as the RPI wasn't. These other criteria remain: availability of talent (injuries, for example), bad losses, common opponents, being competitive in losses, overall record, conference record, non-conference record, early-in-season vs. late-in-season competition, head-to-head results, regional rankings, strength of schedule, strength of conference and significant wins. There is also some subjective evaluation from personal observation that is included in committee discussions."

Top 10 NET teams as of 2/7

• Team NET
• 1. South Carolina
• 2. North Carolina State
• 3. Stanford
• 4. Louisville
• 5. North Carolina
• 6. Connecticut
• 7. Arizona
• 8. Texas
• 9. Iowa State
• 10. Baylor

We would most likely be a #2 seed (hopefully Bridgeport). We have upside potential as North Carolina has plenty of opportunities to lose to lesser team but we also have downside as Arizona can beat some good teams.

 

[JavaMan]

...Specifically, here is the WCBB Selection committee wording:
"The NET is not the sole factor for NCAA tournament selection, of course, just as the RPI wasn't. These other criteria remain: availability of talent (injuries, for example), bad losses, common opponents, being competitive in losses, overall record, conference record, non-conference record, early-in-season vs. late-in-season competition, head-to-head results, regional rankings, strength of schedule, strength of conference and significant wins. There is also some subjective evaluation from personal observation that is included in committee discussions."

Oh, that clears it up. Now we should be able to figure out precisely where we'll end up.

 

[HuskylnSC]

If these seeding hold up we would still be in Spokane
#1 SCAR gets #8 Texas in Greensboro
#2 NC State gets #7 Arizona in Bridgeport
#3 Stanford gets #6 UConn in Spokane
#4 Louisville gets #5 North Carolina Wichita

The only rub is Louisville an NC are both ACC schools. The committee could swap us and NC

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

If these seeding hold up we would still be in Spokane
#1 SCAR gets #8 Texas in Greensboro
#2 NC State gets #7 Arizona in Bridgeport
#3 Stanford gets #6 UConn in Spokane
#4 Louisville gets #5 North Carolina Wichita

The only rub is Louisville an NC are both ACC schools. The committee could swap us and NC

That's an interesting scenario. A lot will be affected by how they handle same conference teams and how heavily they will (continue) to weight geography. With their geographic rules typically in your scenario UConn would go to Bridgeport (they are placed in the closest remaining site after UNC). However, then you would end up with Arizona in Spokane with Stanford and I don't think they do that, as the PAC will not have 8 teams in which has something to do with it.

The main issue in this scenario is 3 teams from the same conference in the top 2 seed lines which I actually don't expect to see. At this point, I would be shocked to see UNC getting that high a bid, but a lot of basketball to be played. Actually, ditto Texas. That's why it is much more than the NET factored in.

 

[ritter]

How does the return of injured players (PB) affect seeding? Or doesn’t it ?

 

[SLY63]

How does the return of injured players (PB) affect seeding? Or doesn’t it ?

I believe when the reigning player of year is involved, it has to effect the seeding. The same is true if a key player gets injured just before the tourney.

 

[amb3096]

I believe when the reigning player of year is involved, it has to effect the seeding. The same is true if a key player gets injured just before the tourney.

It will affect the seeding when the injured player comes back and the team becomes notably better. They won't give UConn the benefit of the doubt without at least seeing a pattern of improvement after the return.

Signed,
A Tennessee fan who thought they would be better (not worse) after Rae Burrell returned from injury

 

[shiverz45]

If these seeding hold up we would still be in Spokane
#1 SCAR gets #8 Texas in Greensboro
#2 NC State gets #7 Arizona in Bridgeport
#3 Stanford gets #6 UConn in Spokane
#4 Louisville gets #5 North Carolina Wichita

The only rub is Louisville an NC are both ACC schools. The committee could swap us and NC

I would not even use the NET to rank the top 8 seeds because it is flawed. The committee didn't even put NC in the top 16 reveal, although NC Net ranking has been in the top 5 all year. With back-to-back losses to Baylor, you might as well remove Texas as well. Michigan right now is the #6 overall and Indiana is probably #8.

 

[npignatjr]

How does the return of injured players (PB) affect seeding? Or doesn’t it ?

Like with UConn getting back 2 guards that missed significant games? Nika and Azzi. Plus maybe Ps be later?

 

[ConnMotors]

Looking at the above rankings as well as the AP Top-25 there are still a few teams ahead of UConn that have remaining games against currently ranked teams.

South Carolina isn't moving whether they take a loss or not. They play at Georgia on 2-13 and host Tennessee on 2-10. The overall Tournament #1 seed.

Stanford is at Oregon on 2-20. I like watching the Cardinal play. They are going to be a tough out for any team that faces them.

Louisville has three games left against top teams. They host Notre Dame on 2-13; are at North Carolina on 2-17 and then at Notre Dame on 2-27. This team has the hardest task at staying as a potential #1 seed.

Michigan moves up to Four. Way to go Coach Kim and team. Always was impressed when she was at St. John's. They host Maryland on 2-20 then travel to Iowa on 2-27. That will be a game worth watching.

NC State plays tonight against Georgia Tech.

Arizona has no remaining games against Top-25 teams.

Indiana has two games left. They host Iowa on 2-20 and Maryland on 2-25.

UConn has no remaining games against Top-25 teams. But they do play the top end Big East teams.

Iowa State can sneak in here if things fall their way. They are at Texas on 2-16. Then host Oklahoma on 2-19 and Baylor on 2-28.

For fun this is where I see teams playing up to today.

Regional -- Greensboro -- South Carolina vs. Iowa State Regional -- Bridgeport -- Michigan vs. NC State Regional -- Wichita -- Louisville vs. Arizona Regional -- Spokane -- Stanford vs. UConn

 

[Vowelguy]

If these seeding hold up

But they don’t. You will never find an example where the RPI or the NET rankings were used 1 for 1.
(Eg, UNC will not be anywhere near a 2 seed)

Instead the NET is a way to sort teams. So, more important than the NET ranking per se are things like “Quad 1” wins (basically top 50 wins but adjusted for home/away), and Quad 2-4 losses.

There are 2 things we KNOW the committee has at its fingertips
1) the “Nitty Gritty” report

The NET Nitty Gritty Report for NCAA Women's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

The NET Nitty Gritty Report for 2022 NCAA Women's College Basketball. This Is a Duplication of the Report Used by the Tournament Selection Committee to Determine At-Large Teams with Quadrants

www.warrennolan.com

2) Team sheets

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketballw/2022/net-teamsheets

When you look at these, you can get a sense of what the committee is studying and what would be notable.