Recruiting Top100 Percentages

[CTBasketball]

Someone asked for the percentages that top 100 recruits make the NBA. Below are two charts. One for top 100 recruits that get drafted, and the other for top 100 recruits who actually play in the NBA.

Notes:

• Took into account transfers - so a player that transferred stood as data for both schools.
• Used Rivals Top 150, and only counted the Top 100. ESPN started their rankings in 2007.
• Only did meaningful schools - not many schools have more than 10 Rivals Top 100 recruits within the last 10 years.
• Used NBA 1st and 2nd Round Draft picks.
• The data goes from 2003 to 2013, the modern age of recruiting essentially.
• I may have missed one or two players because this was annoying as hell.
• Teams in green stand for schools that have recruited less than 10 Rivals Top 100 players since 2003.
• If you see an error, let me know I'll fix it. Data is current up to October 21st, 2014.

 

[tzznandrew]

This is great. I'm sure it took a lot of work. Thanks!

A question: is there any way to filter out the players who would be in the league no matter where they went? I'm thinking the John Walls, Jabari Parkers, Anthony Davises, and Andre Drummonds?

I mean, if we exclude Top 10 (or 20) recruits, does that meaningfully change these statistics?

 

[CTBasketball]

This is great. I'm sure it took a lot of work. Thanks!

A question: is there any way to filter out the players who would be in the league no matter where they went? I'm thinking the John Walls, Jabari Parkers, Anthony Davises, and Andre Drummonds?

I mean, if we exclude Top 10 (or 20) recruits, does that meaningfully change these statistics?

I could re-do it if you want. I was actually interested in seeing how players not ranked in the top 100 fare in the NBA...

 

[champs99and04]

Nice work. The next step, to me, is taking the average of those top 100 players. For example, maybe the average Kentucky player in the top 100 was ranked 22 and the average UConn player was 42. That would certainly be relevant. I'll give it a look and see what I can find.

 

[Walker11]

Nice work man. I was intrigued the other day when you mentioned it and was hoping it wasn't too overwhelming!

 

[David 76]

Well this is good PR for KY. But I would also likke to see what it would look like discounting top 10 to top 20 players.
Providence confuses me. How could so few of their top 100 players get drafted but so many play in the NBA?

 

[BearJWS]

Not that I'm willing to do the math, but getting a 5 star player to the NBA should yield 1 point, getting a 4 star player to the NBA should be 2 points, getting a 3 star player to the NBA should be worth 3 points, getting a 2 star or less player the NBA worth 5 points (aka priceless)... Would be an interesting study, if done over 10 years or so.

KenSucky & Puke do less with more. Yet UConn & other programs develop their players. The longer a 5 star player stays at say KenSucky or Puke, the less they develop. See Marshall Plumlee & Alex Poythress...

 

[champs99and04]

Here are the average rankings of recruited top 100 players in the aforementioned time frame:

Kentucky - 22.69 (I omitted Enes Kanter from the calculations, not sure if the OP did or not)

Duke - 33

UConn - 49.74

Those are just a couple, I don't have the energy to do anymore right now.

 

[jleves]

Not that I'm willing to do the math, but getting a 5 star player to the NBA should yield 1 point, getting a 4 star player to the NBA should be 2 points, getting a 3 star player to the NBA should be worth 3 points, getting a 2 star or less player the NBA worth 5 points (aka priceless)... Would be an interesting study, if done over 10 years or so.

KenSucky & Puke do less with more. Yet UConn & other programs develop their players. The longer a 5 star player stays at say KenSucky or Puke, the less they develop. See Marshall Plumlee & Alex Poythress...

If you're trying to assess developing players, I would change the metrics:

1 point for getting a 5 star into the league but -2 if you don't. If you don't get a 5 star in, you've either hurt their development or got a guy with issues which should show negatively on the program (and I know this hurts UConn in a few cases).

3 points for getting a 4 star kid into the league - 4 stars are typically outside the top 25/30 and if you only send 30 kids a year into the league, this should be considered a success more than double of getting a 5 star kid in.

4 points for getting a 3 star kid in the league. Typically 3 and 4 star kids aren't that far separated and they can sometimes be interchanged in terms of ranking.

7 points for getting a 2 star kids. They just don't come in with much promise of playing in the NBA.

10 points for anyone less than 2 stars. This is the epitome of identifying and developing unseen talent.

 

[CTBasketball]

Here are the average rankings of recruited top 100 players in the aforementioned time frame:

Kentucky - 22.69 (I omitted Enes Kanter from the calculations, not sure if the OP did or not)

Duke - 33

UConn - 49.74

Those are just a couple, I don't have the energy to do anymore right now.

I included Enes Kanter. As long as they signed their LOI and practiced, they were a statistic. Players like Andrew Bynum, were not counted.

 

[chapwilvaug72]

has there ever been a case where a big time recruit actually recruited huskies

maybe sent his film from high school to basketball office

and actually played under scholly for huskies

if not, why

why do huskies have to beat the bushes with the current biggest rep

after awhile its unbelieveable what is happening

i cannot believe all these recruits always want the easy road for short term gratification and dont see the massive long term benefits of entering the portals of huskyville

 

[chapwilvaug72]

in what states and nations do huskies recruit?

where they dont: in, ky, ks, ia, va, ut, ri, ok, or, wv, vt, me, nh, nb, oh, sc, tn, vt, wa, wy, me, id, de, ar, hi, co, nv, nj, nm, nc, nd, sd, wy, mizz, ms, mi, mn, nd,washdc

where they do:
pa-rip, yell/mn-only khalid/tx-only oak, beet/wa-only donny/nc-only purv/nj-only tate/wi-only caron, nolan/ca-ollie,newrip,deandre/nystate-ben,cyrulik,cliff,kemba,tsam,curtiskelly,price, wes b,giscombe,corley,kimball/canada-denham/al-sticks/ga-ricky,lubin/mi-depriest,jeff king/il-boat/jamaica-kentan/washdc-gamble/md-mourning,gay,gwynn,dyson,boone,samjr/ma-bazz,oriaki,jadams,Jamal Coombs-McDaniel,hobbs,bobby boyd/fl-rudy johnson/la-hayward/nc-purv only on 2nd goround/ut-travis/israel-dove,doron/az-fair/ms-funches/berlin-gif/sc-ray,sellers/va-mandeldove,rosco/norwalk-enoch/hrtfd-wiggins/newhaven-earl kelley, TREMONT (yale just offered him; he be gifted)/bridgpt-smitty, cox/waterbury-saunders,hanson/middletown-corny by way of nc/ct-aleksinas on 2nd go round, pikel, kuzinski, whelton, staak, melody, earl wilson, cal chapman, weston, mckay, norm bailey,rhubala,budzinski, lee otis?/ri-tony r., koski/jimmy foster?

trends-dont go near ky, nc, in, mi, ks,tn,wv,va,mizzou,fl,ia,ri,ok,oh,dc,nj-i wonder why
success:md,ct,ny,ca,israel,berlin,boston,pa very limited,tx very limited
conclusion: nj underutilized or not many prospects/go balto big time; how did huskies miss carmelo! grades?
conclusion-not good; staff need fulltime recruiter closer with contacts majorly-its time to go outside the fam to get the needed cross fertilization and just stop incest-who was that big man coach from pitt who was on staff

 

[chapwilvaug72]

jimmy foster hailed from nj & matriculated UCONN style '72-'74

conclusion sub 2: jr clg recruiting needs uptick due to poor results from high school
conclusion sub 3: increased action in foreign nations needed as UCONN is the current top blueblood & not even coming close to competing at blueblood level on player acquisition

 

[Palatine]

This would be my question....

How many top ten recruits have come to UConn?

I think that Drummond and Gay, perhaps, Caron Butler, not many.

Compared to Duke or Kentucky and Kansas were second class. Those programs regularly get top ten recruits.

 

[Waquoit]

KEA was a Top 10 guy.

 

[chapwilvaug72]

forgot drummond completely-this tells me he was no factor of assistance for UCONN; he was a nonpolished diversion only

kimball-ma; not ny
balto:tim coles
ny:hilty, villaneuwava
tx:voskuhl

 

[Palatine]

Hilton was not top ten, he was a late unheralded commit.

Since 2003 Rivals top ten who committed to UConn were Drummond, Daniels, Gay, Charlie V, and Bynum.

 

[chapwilvaug72]

CT: rash jones, lavigne, quimby, abro, dulin,austrie, burrel
ny: omar, taliek
fl-rash anderson, broxton/ga-lamb/la-john thomas, kirk king/nv-gavin/ca-marcus w., marcus johnson/ma-adrien, freeman/mi-selvie

jeff carr? ct?
gary custick? ny?

 

[chapwilvaug72]

UCONN is not 2nd fiddle to anyone because with players past and present the 4 nc2a crowns & 88nit crown and all yank & big east conf titles are a grander achievement than any team in last approx 1/4 century

the problem is that UCONN is always breaking its keester for playas when the dukes,ky, ks, nc have biggy playas lining up and praying for an offer

it needs to start now when a biggy recruit contacts the UCONN basketball office and says i want to audition for your programm and then maybe you would consider offering me a scholly

reality is, based on results, UCONN has gotten the best recuits available in comparison to any program; UCONN just has to work too hard to do it and its getting old

 

[intlzncster]

, this is like trying to read the Dead Sea Scrolls.

 

[Palatine]

, this is like trying to read the Dead Sea Scrolls.

Except that after the effort the dead sea scrolls make sense.

 

[David 76]

Donyell was a McD's AA. Don't remember if he was top ten

 

[chapwilvaug72]

picture now complete with these:
1) murray williams-ct
2)toraino walker-fl
3)okwandu-nigeria

 

[Husky999]

Don't see Wisconsin anywhere in that graph. Is it that they don't even get top 100 players or do all of them not make the NBA? Again, not sure why anyone would want to go there to develop.