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Message: [QUOTE="NycUcWbbFan, post: 5163521, member: 13453"] Expounding more on BoneDog’s train of thought… [URL='https://the-boneyard.com/threads/its-all-about-the-terrible-threes-or-is-it.204576/#post-5157218']How does UConn win games[/URL]? [LIST] [*]And why does it seem that Geno prioritizes, with a development program that is more [URL='https://the-boneyard.com/threads/marquette-postgame-thread.204634/post-5158600']transparent[/URL] this year with a young team, certain items in a [B]certain order[/B]? [*]This order seems to be half-court offense, scoring defense (defense other than rebounding), press, … and then rebounding (and post play &1) closer to the true rebounding aptitude tests of TN (9th game hence) and SC (12th game hence). [/LIST] A team wins if it outscores its opponent: [LIST] [*]Note that Points = Points Per Possession x Number of Possessions: PTS = PPP x p; [*]UConn wins if PTS > PTS’ ==> PPP x p > PPP’ x p’; (‘ denotes opponent); [*]Note that p = FGA possessions (p1) + non-FGA possessions (p2); [*]Note also that p = p1 + p2 = p’ = p1’ + p2’ (may be off by 1 or 2 possessions) due to the [URL='https://www.nbastuffer.com/analytics101/possession/']definition [/URL]of possessions and end-of-quarters end possessions; [*]UConn wins if PPP > PPP’ and/or p1 > p1’; [*]In short, UConn wins if it wins the [B]possessions battle[/B] (scoring efficiency in own possessions, defensive efficiency in opponent’s possessions); [/LIST] The [URL='https://the-boneyard.com/threads/where-uconns-starting-lineup-is-heading.203365/post-5116635']possessions battle[/URL] is won through the following: [LIST] [*]UConn has better efficient offense (better shot selection, better accuracy, better effective scoring (reflecting free throws), i.e. better PPP; [*]UConn has more FGA possessions (better p1), i.e. less turnovers (efficient offense); [*]The opponent has less efficient offense imposed by UConn’s scoring defense; [*]The opponent has less FGA possessions (efficient scoring defense); [*]With [B]alternating possessions[/B], the opponent’s non-FGA possessions result in transition opportunities (from opponent turnovers imposed by UConn’s scoring defense) on UConn’s end — (efficient) scoring defense feeding (efficient) offense — or trading an opponent’s empty possession (scoring defense without fouling) with UConn’s effective non-transition possession. [/LIST] How does rebounding factor in? [LIST] [*]A prolific rebounding opponent can lose if it is inept on offense (multiple offensive rebounds in the same possession results in multiple FGAs but the same ultimate reward of 0-4+ points in one possession) exacerbated by UConn’s superb scoring defense; [*]Even when UConn cannot get an offensive rebound of a missed FGA, UConn can win if it has an efficient offense (it has enough FGMs); [*]one-and-done on a UConn FGA possession is the same as many-and-done (through offensive rebounding) on an opponent FGA possession — the same opportunity for 0-4+ points on one possession; [*]Having more FGAs or more rebounds are not determinative of a win, in the same magnitude as having an efficient offense and an efficient scoring defense. [/LIST] [B]But a rebounding win margin can be win-determinative enough for an opponent when:[/B] [LIST] [*]UConn’s offense sputters; and [*]UConn’s scoring defense is inadequate resulting in opponent better offense (PPP’) and less transition offense for UConn (p1 < p1’; p2’ is minimal). [/LIST] So, [I]way before the likes of TN and SC[/I], UConn will hone on its offense and scoring defense as the [B]surest[/B] way to win games; [LIST] [*]It seems that Geno [B]may now[/B] devote [B]more bandwidth[/B] to improve rebounding after its offense and scoring defense performance in the Villanova game (punctuating the team’s remarkable development backed by [URL='https://the-boneyard.com/threads/guess-who%E2%80%99s-leading-the-country-in-assist-to-turnover-ratio.204704/post-5160919']statistical evidence[/URL]). [/LIST] For the above reasons, imo, the [B]frequently-litigated[/B] rebounding issue (reinforced by anemic early season rebounding statistics this year for this young team) is [B]often a red herring[/B]. &1 Geno does want Jana and Ice to develop from the very beginning because it makes UConn more formidable in the postseason. But he has a young team with many aspects to develop (and requires training bandwidth and thus far he only has had a 15-game training bandwidth in a 31-game regular season). [/QUOTE]

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