Reality check

[OFID]

... for the belief that there is objective evidence that UConn deserves an overall #4 or #5 seed.

We'll look at wins, losses, and recent play.

WINS:
I looked at the #1 and #2 seeds according to Charlie Creme's 3/10/2020 bracketology. According to Massey, among those 8 teams:
UConn has the worst best win.
UConn has the second worst 2nd best win, ahead only of NC State.
UConn has the worst 3rd best win.
UConn has the worst 4th best win.
UConn has the worst 5th best win.
UConn has the worst 6th best win.
UConn has the worst 7th best win.
UConn has the worst 8th best win.
UConn has the worst 9th best win.
UConn has the worst 10th best win.
UConn has the worst 11th best win.
UConn has the worst 12th best win.
UConn has the worst 13th best win.
UConn as the second or third worst win for the 14th through 22nd best wins and don't get into the top half until the 25th best win (page 1 of the attached pdf).

If you look at UConn among the third seeded teams, it's not much better. Among those 5 teams (UConn + the 4 number 3's), UConn has the worst or second worst wins for the best win through the 9th best win, and doesn't break into the top two best wins until the 15th best win (page 2 of the attached pdf).

UConn's wins fit in better with the fourth seeded teams. Among those 5 teams, they have the third or fourth best win for the best win through the fourth best win, and the the best or second best for the for very nearly all of the rest of the wins (page 3 of the attached pdf).

LOSSES:
Now that Baylor has lost to Iowa State, the only competition for best losses is South Carolina. South Carolina, a team that starts three freshmen, lost their 7th game of the season on Thanksgiving to Indiana (who is better than any team UConn beat). UConn's three losses were in the 14th game (January 9), 22nd game (February 3) and 24th game (February 10).

Does having (arguably) the best losses count? You betcha! It has elevated UConn from a low 3 or mid 4 seed to a mid 2 seed.

RECENT PLAY:
UConn has routed their last 6 opponents. None were against Quadrant 1 teams. Four were against Quadrant 2 teams, and 3 of those were at home (yes, Mohegan Sun Arena is a home court). The other two were against Quadrant 3 teams, one at home and one on the road. These routs were fueled by UConn turning over their opponents and scoring in transition. It is unlikely that in, say, a regional final game (against Oregon?), this will happen.


Of course, believing that UConn is an overall #4 or #5 is fine. However, insisting that there is objective evidence for that is a stretch.

Going forward from here, UConn will have opportunities to show that a higher seed was deserved. I'll be rooting for them to do just that.

 

[MSGRET]

RECENT PLAY:
UConn has routed their last 6 opponents. None were against Quadrant 1 teams. Four were against Quadrant 2 teams, and 3 of those were at home (yes, Mohegan Sun Arena is a home court). The other two were against Quadrant 3 teams, one at home and one on the road. These routs were fueled by UConn turning over their opponents and scoring in transition. It is unlikely that in, say, a regional final game (against Oregon?), this will happen.

No according to the NCAA only Gampel and the XL are considered home courts for UConn, the Mohegan Sun Arena is a neutral court.

 

[Kaizen]

Today's coaches poll has UConn as #4.

2023-24 Women's College Basketball Rankings - ESPN

Find the 2023-24 NCAAW rankings on ESPN, including the Coaches and AP poll for the top 25 NCAAW teams.

www.espn.com

 

[MSGRET]

Today's coaches poll has UConn as #4.

2023-24 Women's College Basketball Rankings - ESPN

Find the 2023-24 NCAAW rankings on ESPN, including the Coaches and AP poll for the top 25 NCAAW teams.

www.espn.com

I've always used the Coaches poll over the AP. They seem to be less pig headed on non P5 schools. I think that they have it right when it comes to South Dakota, Princeton, Missouri State, and FCGU on the rankings.

 

[OFID]

No according to the NCAA only Gampel and the XL are considered home courts for UConn, the Mohegan Sun Arena is a neutral court.

I understand what the official designation is. However, Mohegan Sun Arena is only 10-15 miles further from Gampel than the XL Center is and the vast overwhelming number of fans in attendance are UConn fans. Also, I think any team that has ever played UConn at Mohegan Sun would agree that it's a home court for UConn.

 

[jaydee602]

It doesn't matter if UCONN is ranked anywhere from 5th thru 8th. They are destined to Portland because the selection committee defers to geography over rankings & S-curves. They will blame phony criteria like good losses, bad wins, RPI, etc. But Louisville is locked into Fort Wayne, NC State is destined for Greenville, SC, & Stanford can't play in Oregon's region.

 

[hoopsfan22]

No according to the NCAA only Gampel and the XL are considered home courts for UConn, the Mohegan Sun Arena is a neutral court.

Same with Webster Bank Arena. Wish we'd play more games there.

 

[mbr33ct]

It doesn't matter if UCONN is ranked anywhere from 5th thru 8th. They are destined to Portland because the selection committee defers to geography over rankings & S-curves. They will blame phony criteria like good losses, bad wins, RPI, etc. But Louisville is locked into Fort Wayne, NC State is destined for Greenville, SC, & Stanford can't play in Oregon's region.

You mean the same criteria @OFID put forth in his/her OP?

 

[triaddukefan]

It doesn't matter if UCONN is ranked anywhere from 5th thru 8th. They are destined to Portland because the selection committee defers to geography over rankings & S-curves. They will blame phony criteria like good losses, bad wins, RPI, etc. But Louisville is locked into Fort Wayne, NC State is destined for Greenville, SC, & Stanford can't play in Oregon's region.

Did you have the same outrage last year when UConn played in Albany as opposed to Portland?