Reality check on WCBB opponents

[UcMiami]

So, we all worry a lot about how Uconn will do facing some of the other good teams when the NCAA comes and especially after such a 'disappointing' win as they had against Louisville!

Maybe a reminder of some other teams' feet of clay would be a good idea:
Mississippi State - the only other undefeated team:
Against unranked teams: beat LSU by 13, Alabama by 14, Syracuse by 11, ASU by 8, and UVA by 15
Against ranked teams: #21 Oklahoma State by 3, #9 Oregon by 11, #13 Missouri by 4, # 8 SC by 14, #11 TN by 19 and #20 Georgia by 24.

Baylor:
Unranked: Oklahoma by 9 and 22, WVU by 11
Ranked: Lost to #7 UCLA by 14, #21 OkSt by 13 and 42, #14 Stanford by 24 and #6 TX by 25 (they play at TX as their only other ranked game.)

Oregon is the only other top 10 team we haven't played and they have lost 4 times.

I think both Baylor and MsSt are good teams and I am sure they could beat Uconn on any given night, but ... Baylor has played a very easy schedule and most of the meat of the MsSt schedule was played at home.

And compared to Uconn who played the other 6 top ten teams and has only the scare at #6 TX by 4 and # 5 ND by 9, it is hard to get too upset about an 11 point win against #4 Louisville or two 18 point wins against unranked teams as their other 'scares'.

 

[JoePgh]

I agree completely with this post. It occurred to me what the reaction would be in the posters here were Louisville fans posting on some forum called The Bird Feeder, trying to assess what the game said about their chances to win an NC this year. They would say that Hines-Allen couldn’t compete on the boards against a thin 5-11 opponent. They would say that Asia Durr had to take 19 acrobatic shots with defenders draped over her to get 20 points, and most of those points (nearly all) came after the game was decided. They would ask how their defense could keep losing KLS when the whole world knows that she is the best 3-point shooter in the college game. They would say that the basic principle of transition defense is to defend the paint area, and yet UConn managed to pass into the paint in transition with near impunity. And so on and so forth.

I do agree that there is some relationship between the fact that Geno only plays 6 or 7 players and the fact that second halves against Central Florida, South Carolina, and Louisville have been less impressive than the corresponding first halves. Speaking just of the Louisville game, which I have re-watched, I think the shots in the second half were as good as those in the first half, but were not being made at the same rate — and that probably is due to fatigue among the starters. The fact that Azura was the best player in the fourth quarter (as she also was against Notre Dame) probably relates to her having played fewer minutes earlier in the game.

BUT ... this is a perfectly rational strategy by Geno, as opposed to trying to have two or three more quarters like the first quarter. If he had bench players other than Azura whom he could trust to play 10-15 minutes, he might have tried that, but he doesn’t. Given that, it makes sense to slow the game down, milk the clock, and don’t give up any big runs to the opponent. In fact, Louisville never got any big runs and never got the lead into single digits. UConn was doing an effective job of protecting its lead, and it worked.

Has UConn proved that it can play four quarters when it has to? Yes, it proved that against both Notre Dame and Texas. In both games, the team had to come back from a double-digit deficit, and was pulling away against an excellent team at the end of the game. But it makes no sense to wear the starters out by playing that way if the game is won in the first half.

 

[msf22b]

As I have been posting, we may just have to be satisfied with a relatively unsatisfactory win this year (compared to usual expectations).

But as UC points out (or alludes to) a win is still likely, the other teams are imperfect also and bottom line; I'll take it.

 

[Oldbones]

Summarizing the Above:

 

[easttexastrash]

There sure is a lot of convincing going on that Baylor and MSU are not really a threat.

It’s OK to have challengers unlike years past. That’s what makes it fun.

 

[j66kicker]

There sure is a lot of convincing going on that Baylor and MSU are not really a threat.

It’s OK to have challengers unlike years past. That’s what makes it fun.

Totally agree. I really really want UConn to play both Baylor and MSU in the FF. Basically that will be UConn's next 'real game.' OMG we have 4 more conference games, which I'll probably watch but, basically, they're a joke. Then our conference tournament which is more of the same. Then rounds 1 & 2 of the NCAAs against a couple well-deserving mid majors / B1G teams who are going to get murdered by 60+. There is no possible chance UConn is going to lose any of these games. I don't know what Massey and Sagarin say, but the j66kicker Rating Service says the probability of winning them all is 100.0%. zzzzzzzzzz...

PLEASE... I want a real game!! Bring it!

 

[HuskylnSC]

I think the era of StewMoTu (i.e., the three headed monster of Stewart, Jefferson and Tuck) has spoiled us. Well, me at least.

 

[Sonny44]

I think the era of StewMoTu (i.e., the three headed monster of Stewart, Jefferson and Tuck) has spoiled us. Well, me at least.

Yes, I think this team is very good, but will not go down as one of the great ones.

 

[Charliebball]

There sure is a lot of convincing going on that Baylor and MSU are not really a threat.

It’s OK to have challengers unlike years past. That’s what makes it fun.

I don't think that's anything new here since the big three graduated................the loss to a Mississippi State team that UConn had previously beaten so soundly just reconfirms the old cliche about on any give day the "better" team can be beaten................that makes one wary as does the somewhat inconsistent play of this year's team................that said, the one constant from the current team is that no matter how they play they still manage to win....................While I can't be certain they will win the NC, I'll gladly take UConn's chances against Baylor or Miss State .....................how about you?

 

[JoePgh]

It looks to me as if the near cliché over the last few years (mainly during the Stewart/Jefferson/Tuck era) that there was UConn, then a big drop, then the rest of WCBB at a lower level is no longer correct.

This year it looks as if the Big Three are UConn, Mississippi State, and Baylor. They seem to be at roughly the same level, albeit with different strengths and weaknesses. Certainly any one game between any two of them could go either way without being described as an upset. That should make the Final Four more interesting (at least beforehand) than it has seemed in recent years.

I'm sure UConn fans won't mind if Miss State and Baylor face each other in the National Semifinals, so that UConn only has to beat one of them rather than both. But I would find it more interesting if UConn had to beat them both.

 

[Centerstream]

a 'disappointing' win as they had against Louisville!

I stopped paying attention to the post after reading the above. Sorry but I knew it was just going to be another "what team should we be afraid to play in the Tournament". I beg to differ, I only think of what teams are going to be afraid to play us! I would say that would be 6 teams, TBA.
BTW, I was not disappointed, the 1st quarter served it's purpose and it was just an average basketball game after that.

 

[Charliebball]

It looks to me as if the near cliché over the last few years (mainly during the Stewart/Jefferson/Tuck era) that there was UConn, then a big drop, then the rest of WCBB at a lower level is no longer correct.

I'm sure UConn fans won't mind if Miss State and Baylor face each other in the National Semifinals, so that UConn only has to beat one of them rather than both. But I would find it more interesting if UConn had to beat them both.

frankly, that would be a bit too interesting for me................

 

[rugbymate]

WCBB has clearly become more competitive and that is good for the game....however, if UCONN plays well against any team, we win

 

[RegisteredUconn]

Totally agree. I really really want UConn to play both Baylor and MSU in the FF. Basically that will be UConn's next 'real game.' OMG we have 4 more conference games, which I'll probably watch but, basically, they're a joke. Then our conference tournament which is more of the same. Then rounds 1 & 2 of the NCAAs against a couple well-deserving mid majors / B1G teams who are going to get murdered by 60+. There is no possible chance UConn is going to lose any of these games. I don't know what Massey and Sagarin say, but the j66kicker Rating Service says the probability of winning them all is 100.0%. zzzzzzzzzz...

PLEASE... I want a real game!! Bring it!

I think if you take the percentage out one more decimal point it's really 100.03% which means Vegas has stopped taking bets on UConn losing before the Sweet Sixteen.

 

[meyers7]

I find it amusing that so many UCONN still haven't faced the fact that maybe MSU was the better team, which is why they won.

Probably because overall they weren't. As indicated in the NC game. Sometimes teams play over their heads. Sometimes teams have an off night. When those two combine, anything can happen.

 

[DefenseBB]

Yes, I think this team is very good, but will not go down as one of the great ones.

OMG!!!! Seriously??? Who the heck do you think WERE GREAT TEAMS THEN? Go back and look at those teams regular season scores, the rankings of the teams they played and then come back here and tell me what you found.

This board and the ludicrous statements only affirmed how spoiled and what selective memory we have.... arrrrgggghhhh!!!!

Sonny-not so much a diatribe against you per se, but please qualify your statements to give us context....
Kind regards,
DefenseBB

 

[DefenseBB]

I find it amusing that so many UCONN still haven't faced the fact that maybe MSU was the better team, which is why they won.

I personally don't think that UCONN, or any other team, can stop Baylor's inside game and that Baylor can, and will, beat any team that they face.

Heresy I say, Nan-blow the whistle and give ETT a minor penalty in the box for 2 minutes, though some may want a major penalty and game misconduct...I will defer to your judgement...

 

[meyers7]

I stopped paying attention to the post after reading the above. Sorry but I knew it was just going to be another "what team should we be afraid to play in the Tournament". I beg to differ, I only think of what teams are going to be afraid to play us! I would say that would be 6 teams, TBA.
BTW, I was not disappointed, the 1st quarter served it's purpose and it was just an average basketball game after that.

You probably should have read past that. And you should probably get your sarcasm detector looked at.

 

[easttexastrash]

Probably because overall they weren't. As indicated in the NC game. Sometimes teams play over their heads. Sometimes teams have an off night. When those two combine, anything can happen.

IMO, the best team usually wins. MSU beat both Baylor and UCONN, the favorite of most to win the championship. Their win over UCONN was not a one-off, but I do think that the win took a lot out of MSU and that they did not perform their best against SC. However, SC was the best team in the nation last season and they proved it by winning the championship.

 

[meyers7]

OMG!!!! Seriously??? Who the heck do you think WERE GREAT TEAMS THEN? Go back and look at those teams regular season scores, the rankings of the teams they played and then come back here and tell me what you found.

This board and the ludicrous statements only affirmed how spoiled and what selective memory we have.... arrrrgggghhhh!!!!

Sonny-not so much a diatribe against you per se, but please qualify your statements to give us context....
Kind regards,
DefenseBB

I assume you are just being silly. But just in case you were serious.

2001-2002
2008-2009
2015-2016

And then of course there was the 2000-2001 team which probably had the most talent, but probably not the best "team". (and they had injuries)

 

[Adesmar123]

I find it amusing that so many UCONN still haven't faced the fact that maybe MSU was the better team, which is why they won..

And maybe you can face the fact that maybe Louisville was the better team in that semi final.

 

[meyers7]

IMO, the best team usually wins.

Usually but not always.

and that they did not perform their best against SC.

Hmmm, kind of like UCONN didn't perform their best against MSU?

However, SC was the best team in the nation last season and they proved it by winning the championship.

And yet UCONN beat them by double digits. Now what???

 

[MD#12Fan]

Yes, I think this team is very good, but will not go down as one of the great ones.

Devil's Advocate: Who's to say this team isn't Geno's "crowning achievement. Newsflash: as good as this program is, how many championships have been won without a Diana, Maya, or Stewie? One for sure, without looking it up is Rebecca's team. Point is almost all of the 11 championships had one of the 3 best women's basketball players in the history of the sport.
This team obviously doesn't have that. Look at what they've accomplished TOGETHER the last two years. The 1000th win, the winning streak, final four, two year record of like 62-1. Looking back in hindsight, especially if they win the championship, it may be one of the best. 5 names on the wall?- Gabby, Kia, Pheesa, Lou, and Crystal. 2001-2 without DT- comparison.

 

[DefenseBB]

I assume you are just being silly. But just in case you were serious.

2001-2002
2008-2009
2015-2016

And then of course there was the 2000-2001 team which probably had the most talent, but probably not the best "team". (and they had injuries)

Actually, I wasn't being silly. Let's parse your 3 team selection-

'01-02 Was TASS +DT and yes, that was a great team. They played 6 top 25 opponents, 4 in the top 10 (#3,8,3,2). Beat #20 BC in BigEast Final, played 4 ranked teams in NCAA (#24,15,6 #2-Oklahoma in Final by 12 pts). They had 4 games decided by 15 or less (unranked VT by 9)...Beat a total of 10 Ranked team; 5 Top 10.

'08-09 Was Maya's Junior year. I would argue this team is the weakest of your three and probably behind this years team. They played 5 Ranked opponents during their reg season-only 3 in the top 10 at the time of playing (#2, #4, #6). The BigEast was a cake walk with only Louisville being good at #7 in the final. A few anomolies there were 6 games decided by <15 points and only 1 was against a ranked team (@ND by 10) and 4 others were at home so they did not dominate the lesser ones as much as I would have expected.
Their NCAA tournament was interesting in that they played 5 ranked teams from the last poll-#22,#13,#19,#2,#7 (which was Louisville for the 3rd time). Very good team. Beat 10 Ranked teams, 5 in Top 10 (Louisville 3 times)

'15-16 Stewie/Tuck/Mo and this team faced 13 ranked opponents (4 in the NCAA), 6 in the top 10 at the time of playing them. Closest game was 12 against #2 SC and only one other game at 16 points. Truly dominating.

'17-18 This year's team has played 8 top 25 teams so far with USF coming up. 5 of these in the top 10 (#5,3,9,7,4). ND by 9 and @ Texas by 4. In the AAC, I suspect USF again for a total of 10 top 25 teams for pre-NCAA tournament. Add in 4 ranked teams in the tourney and that is 14 Ranked opponents, more than any others on this list.

My point is take a step back and look at the full scope, not your memory nor your quick view of the scores. Last to consider is the evolution of the game in these past 16 years since 2002. The talent is spread among more teams, with better coaching.

Thanks for putting specific teams out for a full review.

My take is 2016-17 as #1, 2002 as #2. This years team has a chance for top 5 and maybe top 3....

 

[Teacherdeb]

IMO, the best team usually wins. MSU beat both Baylor and UCONN, the favorite of most to win the championship. Their win over UCONN was not a one-off, but I do think that the win took a lot out of MSU and that they did not perform their best against SC. However, SC was the best team in the nation last season and they proved it by winning the championship.

Wait- their win over UCONN was not a one-off? (I am guessing that means a one time deal).
So you think if UCONN had played Mississippi State let’s say, 3 times, MSU would have continued to beat UCONN? I think very few would agree with you. And honestly, if MSU was that good, why didn’t they beat SC? South Carolina, your anointed “best team in the nation” well, UCONN managed to beat them, so MSS should have had no problem with SC. Oh wait- beating UCONN took too much out of them. Huh?
Have you watched MSU play this year? You really think they are better than UCONN? I guess time will tell.