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Message: [QUOTE="NycUcWbbFan, post: 5303250, member: 13453"] Your statistical analysis as well as Bonedog’s anecdotal analysis ([U]supported[/U] by another statistical analysis &2) [U]both[/U] have weighty probative value to the stated premise of your thread — which a lot of people, including me, agree with — that it is highly unlikely that next year’s team would average more than 90 points. At bottom, while your statistical analysis is exhaustively descriptive of the 26-year past, it is not [U]exhaustively predictive[/U] of the future. [LIST] [*]Correlation is [U]not[/U] Causation, moreso if you are sampling from a distribution that is not an IIDRV (independent and identically distributed random variable) distribution (below); [*]Your Past correlation analysis is not necessarily Prologue, and claiming that other people’s analyses have no probative value to your premise is something your analysis cannot prove (i.e. [U]your analysis is not the sole canon[/U]). [/LIST] There have only been around 40 draws of the independent ([B]but not identically distributed[/B]) yearly random variable of winning the NCAAT. [LIST] [*]Many factors evolve: players (quantitative and qualitative quality, dispersion), style of play, coaching styles, Geno’s coaching style, rosters, rules of the game, [URL='https://the-boneyard.com/threads/confirmed-uconn-pursuit-of-wisconsin-transfer-serah-williams.206443/post-5225779']paradigm[/URL] (pre- and post- NIL/ portal), etc; [*]Even among Geno’s championship teams, they each have won the NCAAT their own way (i.e. Rebecca’s team is different from Shea/Svet’s team, is different from TASSK/DT team, is different from DT’s teams, is different from Maya/Tina’s teams, is different from Breanna’s teams); [*]In fact, next year’s team most closely resembles the non-championship [URL='https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/connecticut/women/2001.html']2000-01 [/URL]Sue/Svet/TASSK/DT team that was derailed by injury (Cuango’s [URL='https://the-boneyard.com/threads/realistic-assessment-on-90-point-scoring.208211/post-5298874']title-winning vets[/URL], accentuated [URL='https://the-boneyard.com/threads/heckel-to-uconn-merged-threads.207545/page-9#post-5284061']here[/URL]); [*]Note: I have [URL='https://the-boneyard.com/threads/the-battle-for-playing-time-a-spot-on-the-rotation.205139/post-5176825']always [/URL]used the non-senior TASSK years as a reference point to analyze the mix-match Geno coaching style which I have dubbed Geno’s [URL='https://the-boneyard.com/threads/25-26-rotation.207845/post-5285980']oldish-newish MO[/URL]; [*]And even among the five teams (the 3 non-senior TASSK teams, Paige’s team, and next year’s Azzi/Sarah team), Geno has evolved; for example, Geno used the running game (as a crutch) in the early OOC schedule of the first TASSK team, which he [URL='https://the-boneyard.com/threads/early-season-losses-a-look-back-at-lineups.204548/post-5155002']didn’t[/URL] do with Paige’s team. [/LIST] Bonedog is [U]echoing the opinions of many coaches over many years[/U], and repeated in the 2025 NCAAT championship game. That Geno and CD win championships with both &1 &2 offense and defense. [LIST] [*]I am not sure how you can casually dismiss those observations as having no probative value. [/LIST] Bonedog has touched upon the symbiosis of offense and defense to win games. Your statistical analysis shows Geno’s Goldilocks pace (why Geno is a fan of Nika). Both have probative value to your premise. [LIST] [*]I would even state that Geno’s well-documented emphasis on defense during the conference play “metamorphosis” helps in achieving the “Broadway Show” honed peak intuitive choreography of movement of Geno’s championship teams. [/LIST] &1 In order to “prove” your premise than offense rather than defense wins championships, you have cited a [URL='https://the-boneyard.com/threads/its-not-defense-that-wins-championship-but-offense.208291/']thread [/URL]where the OP is you and commenters such as this [URL='https://the-boneyard.com/threads/its-not-defense-that-wins-championship-but-offense.208291/post-5302951']one[/URL], this [URL='https://the-boneyard.com/threads/its-not-defense-that-wins-championship-but-offense.208291/post-5302981']one[/URL] and this [URL='https://the-boneyard.com/threads/its-not-defense-that-wins-championship-but-offense.208291/post-5303096']one[/URL] disagree with your premise. &2 UConn’s National Championship Teams’ Offensive Rating (ORtg) and Defensive Rating (DRtg) Table (note: bolded line): Championship Team | [URL='https://www.google.com/search?q=ORtg&client=safari&sca_esv=243755e6b8237819&hl=en-us&ei=ZfZdaPH_DLe7ptQPuKab-QY&oq=ORtg&gs_lp=EhNtb2JpbGUtZ3dzLXdpei1zZXJwIgRPUnRnMgcQABiABBgKMgUQABiABDIFEAAYgAQyBhAAGAcYHjIFEAAYgAQyBRAAGIAEMgYQABgHGB4yBxAAGIAEGApInWNQ0FhY0FhwBHgBkAEAmAFfoAFfqgEBMbgBA8gBAPgBAZgCBaAChQHCAgoQABiwAxjWBBhHwgINEAAYgAQYsAMYQxiKBZgDAIgGAZAGCZIHAzQuMaAHzQSyBwMwLjG4B2XCBwcwLjEuMi4yyAce&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-serp']ORtg[/URL] | [URL='https://www.google.com/search?q=DRtg&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en-us&client=safari&sei=ZfZdaPjNBPigptQPko3w-Ag']DRtg [/URL]| [URL='https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/connecticut/women/2025-gamelogs-advanced.html']2024-25 [/URL]| 117.8 (1st of 362) | 75.2 (1st of 362) | [URL='https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/connecticut/women/2016.html']2015-16[/URL] | 122.2 (1st of 349) | 67.1 (1st of 349) | [URL='https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/connecticut/women/2015.html']2014-15 [/URL]| 123.4 (1st of 349) | 67.2 (1st of 349) | [URL='https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/connecticut/women/2014.html']2013-14[/URL] | 115.7 (1st of 349) | 67.4 (1st of 349) | [URL='https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/connecticut/women/2013.html']2012-13[/URL] | 113.4 (1st of 345) | 68.4 (1st of 345) | [URL='https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/connecticut/women/2010.html']2009-10[/URL] | 112.1 (1st of 343) | 63.9 (1st of 343) | [URL='https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/connecticut/women/2009.html']2008-09[/URL] | 119.4 (3rd of 343) | 76.0 (6th of 343) | [URL='https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/connecticut/women/2004.html']2003-04[/URL] | 111.0 (1st of 325) | 79.1 (6th of 325) | [URL='https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/connecticut/women/2003.html'][B]2002-03[/B][/URL][B] | 107.8 (9th of 323) | 77.1 (2nd of 323) |[/B] [URL='https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/connecticut/women/2002.html']2001-02[/URL] | Not Available | Not Available | [URL='https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/connecticut/women/2000.html']1999-00[/URL] | Not Available | Not Available | [URL='https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/connecticut/women/1995.html']1994-95[/URL] | Not Available | Not Available | [/QUOTE]

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