Rather be a 9 or 10 seed?

[jleves]

9 or 10 sounds like what most think we will be. Which would you rather be? Personally, I think it's an advantage to be a 10 seed. The first round game is about the same playing either a 7 or 8, but the second round (if you win) you're almost definitely playing a 1 or 2 seed. There tends to be a big difference between 1s and 2s. I'd much rather face a 2 in the second round.

Some stats I found for 97-2010:
8vs9 is 50/50.
7vs10 is 52/48.

In the second round:
1vs8/9 is 88/12 (didn't find a break down of 1vs9 specifically)
2vs10 is 48/52 (that's right, a 10 that advances to the second round has statistically been more likely to win - 25 games)
Interestingly, a 2vs7 is 69/31 (odd but a team that gets hot late and gets a 10 is probably more dangerous than an established 7 that didn't do much in terms of improving down the stretch - 29 games)

Of course a lot depends on the 7 and 2 you might get matched up against, but I'm all for a 10 seed. I think it's a lot safer than a 9 seed.

Sign me up now for a 10 seed and I'm good.

 

[UCHuskies08]

Easily 10

The drop-off behind the top 3 teams this year is pretty high

 

[Vuce]

10 seed - no question. I feel like we have a much better chance to play with the 2 seeds. UK would be extremely tough. We wont be in same bracket as Cuse. UNC usually plays Uconn tough and that game would be in Greensboro.

All that said, I am just happy to be in after all that has happened this year.

I have to add one other thing. I just watched the Uconn/Cuse game on DVR. Dream scenario is NCAA decides their stupid ruling on the APR is just that and sees the progress Uconn has made and we are eligible next year. Then, Drummond and Lamb come back for one last shot ala 1998 Rip Hamilton. I just think a full off season together would do wonders for this bunch - add in Omar and we have got something. Expectations nationally wont be quite as high as they were this season.

 

[superjohn]

If Lamb and Drummond come back expectations will be sky high.

 

[progrocks]

If the tourny schedules for matchups, having us with a Duke 2 would have CBS thrilled.

 

[UCDaveD]

10

 

[Prezidint]

If the tourny schedules for matchups, having us with a Duke 2 would have CBS thrilled.

Puke would hate that, and cry bloody murder, which would make me love that.

 

[HeGotGame]

Is this really a question? 10 all day everyday, I'd rather be an 11 or 12 than a 9.

 

[UofCT]

We will get a 9 because everyone hates us. We will get paired up with Kentucky and we will beat their sorry a$$es.

 

[UConnDan97]

Is this really a question? 10 all day everyday, I'd rather be an 11 or 12 than a 9.

Yes it's really a question, since I have a different answer than anyone else on the board. The answer is 9. You always take the better seed, every day, all day, and twice on Sundays. The reason is due to the fact that I don't look at a tournament and say, "I want to stop after 2 games." I want to win the whole thing.

If seeds play out, as the 10 seed, you will have to beat: #7, #2, #3, and #1.
As the 9 seed, you will have to beat: #8, #1, #4, #2.

So everyone on the board is telling me that they would rather trade a game against a #8 seed in order to avoid the #1 for a couple of games, and in the process play against the top three seeds in your bracket rather than avoid the #3 team altogether. If you want to win the tourney, you will likely have to play the #1 seed in your bracket to do it. You might as well beat them early and take their slightly easier path to the Final Four...

...either way, UConn doesn't get a say in where they are. I hope we spank 6 teams in a row, no matter where they seed us. Just seed us.

 

[uconnbill]

Without a doubt a 10 seed.

 

[UConnDan97]

So based on Lunardi's latest "bracketology", you would like to trade a game with either of the #8 seeds Memphis/Iowa St./Kansas St./ or Alabama for a game with either of the #3 seeds Georgetown/Marquette/Baylor/ or Michigan?? Okay. (keep in mind we already have 2 losses to the latter group this year)

All I can say is if someone guarantees us that we are in the tourney, I'll take whatever they give us. 9, 10, or whatever. GO HUSKIES!!

 

[uconnbill]

So based on Lunardi's latest "bracketology", you would like to trade a game with either of the #8 seeds Memphis/Iowa St./Kansas St./ or Alabama for a game with either of the #3 seeds Georgetown/Marquette/Baylor/ or Michigan?? Okay. (keep in mind we already have 2 losses to the latter group this year)

All I can say is if someone guarantees us that we are in the tourney, I'll take whatever they give us. 9, 10, or whatever. GO HUSKIES!!

You are missing the seven seed that a ten seed would play first. Then if UConn won they would play a two seed which is better than a one seed.

 

[Tenspro2002]

If seeds play out, as the 10 seed, you will have to beat: #7, #2, #3, and #1.
As the 9 seed, you will have to beat: #8, #1, #4, #2.

That's a big "if", buddy. Usually the brackets don't play out that way. As a 3-seed, we ended up playing a #5 in the regional final last year.

Once you get past the second round, brackets can look very ugly. You want the best chance to make the Sweet 16. You want to be as far from the #1 seed as possible.

 

[Gurleyman]

Yes it's really a question, since I have a different answer than anyone else on the board. The answer is 9. You always take the better seed, every day, all day, and twice on Sundays. The reason is due to the fact that I don't look at a tournament and say, "I want to stop after 2 games." I want to win the whole thing.

If seeds play out, as the 10 seed, you will have to beat: #7, #2, #3, and #1.
As the 9 seed, you will have to beat: #8, #1, #4, #2.

So everyone on the board is telling me that they would rather trade a game against a #8 seed in order to avoid the #1 for a couple of games, and in the process play against the top three seeds in your bracket rather than avoid the #3 team altogether. If you want to win the tourney, you will likely have to play the #1 seed in your bracket to do it. You might as well beat them early and take their slightly easier path to the Final Four...

...either way, UConn doesn't get a say in where they are. I hope we spank 6 teams in a row, no matter where they seed us. Just seed us.

There's a chance the No. 1 gets knocked off for you along the way if you are anything but an 8 or a 9. The 8-9 winner is going to have to play the No. 1 seed, or else history will be made by a 16. And if your region is chalk (other than yourselves) and if you play the 1 in the regional final, hell, there's only eight teams left and all bets are off at that point (see Gonzaga in 1999, Davidson in 2007, VCU last year, or that other game in 2006 that there's no need to mention).

Wherever we fall in the 7-10 range, we'll have a toss-up type game to start with.

 

[aceboon]

I would honestly rather be an 11 or 12, but given the options in the OP I'd go with 10.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Realistically, an 11 is in even better position.

The difference between a 6, a 7, and an 8 is minimal. The difference between a 3, and 2, and 1 is huge.

 

[UConn4ever]

I know we will get higher but I want an 11 seed

 

[61cygni]

Yes it's really a question, since I have a different answer than anyone else on the board. The answer is 9. You always take the better seed, every day, all day, and twice on Sundays. The reason is due to the fact that I don't look at a tournament and say, "I want to stop after 2 games." I want to win the whole thing.

If seeds play out, as the 10 seed, you will have to beat: #7, #2, #3, and #1.
As the 9 seed, you will have to beat: #8, #1, #4, #2.

So everyone on the board is telling me that they would rather trade a game against a #8 seed in order to avoid the #1 for a couple of games, and in the process play against the top three seeds in your bracket rather than avoid the #3 team altogether. If you want to win the tourney, you will likely have to play the #1 seed in your bracket to do it. You might as well beat them early and take their slightly easier path to the Final Four...

...either way, UConn doesn't get a say in where they are. I hope we spank 6 teams in a row, no matter where they seed us. Just seed us.

Can't say I agree with this. And my differing has nothing to do with wanting to win 2 games versus winning the whole thing. The point to my opinion is, it is better to have a potential matchup with a 1 seed in the 4th game than the 2nd game, because it gives the #1 seed more chances to be upset before you have to potentially play them. If chalk is winning the other matchups, the #1 seed has to get by the 16 seed to play us immediately as a 9 seed. As a 10 seed, the #1 seed could get knocked off by the 16 seed, 8 seed, or 4 seed. I think that's much more conducive to winning the whole thing.

But as you say, doesn't matter what we want!

 

[UCHuskies08]

Yes it's really a question, since I have a different answer than anyone else on the board. The answer is 9. You always take the better seed, every day, all day, and twice on Sundays. The reason is due to the fact that I don't look at a tournament and say, "I want to stop after 2 games." I want to win the whole thing.

If seeds play out, as the 10 seed, you will have to beat: #7, #2, #3, and #1.
As the 9 seed, you will have to beat: #8, #1, #4, #2.

So everyone on the board is telling me that they would rather trade a game against a #8 seed in order to avoid the #1 for a couple of games, and in the process play against the top three seeds in your bracket rather than avoid the #3 team altogether. If you want to win the tourney, you will likely have to play the #1 seed in your bracket to do it. You might as well beat them early and take their slightly easier path to the Final Four...

...either way, UConn doesn't get a say in where they are. I hope we spank 6 teams in a row, no matter where they seed us. Just seed us.

Disagree. They have two legitimate opportunities to lose before the Elite 8. Look at what happened to us in '04.

 

[M_Funkhauser43!]

I'd love to get Duke in a 10/2 match-up this year and Michigan State is also a beatable two in the second round (though there's a good chance they fall off that line). Other than that, I don't think the two's are that much further behind the 1's. Kentucky and Cuse are clearly the two best teams, but UNC, Mizzou, Kansas, Ohio State are all one-seed quality teams.

 

[Ricky1Moore]

Ummm 10 seed all the way... It's a numbers game

http://static8.businessinsider.com/image/4d80a7234bd7c87e64080000/ncaa-seeds.jpg

 

[HeGotGame]

So based on Lunardi's latest "bracketology", you would like to trade a game with either of the #8 seeds Memphis/Iowa St./Kansas St./ or Alabama for a game with either of the #3 seeds Georgetown/Marquette/Baylor/ or Michigan?? Okay. (keep in mind we already have 2 losses to the latter group this year)

All I can say is if someone guarantees us that we are in the tourney, I'll take whatever they give us. 9, 10, or whatever. GO HUSKIES!!

You are wrong here. First off, why are you comparing 8's to 3's? UConn would play the 7's, not the 3's. The 7's are Gonzaga, New Mexico, SDSU and Creighton. I personally think all those 8's are better than all of the 7's.

Would you rather play UNC/UK or Mizzu/Duke in the next round? To me it is not even a debate, give me the latter. The main thing for us is getting out of the first weekend, once you hit the sweet 16 you can throw out the seeds and I, and everyone who has watched college ball all year, would prefer to wait as long as they can to see UK or UNC.

IMO there is a very big difference this year between the 1s and 2s therefore you are crazy to rather be a 9 seed than a 10.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

1vs8/9 is 88/12 (didn't find a break down of 1vs9 specifically)
2vs10 is 48/52 (that's right, a 10 that advances to the second round has statistically been more likely to win - 25 games)
Interestingly, a 2vs7 is 69/31 (odd but a team that gets hot late and gets a 10 is probably more dangerous than an established 7 that didn't do much in terms of improving down the stretch - 29 games)

I don't want to come off questioning you're numbers because I appreciate you putting the stats together for us to look at.

But is that 2 vs 10 number right? That's crazy and incredible. Would have never thought that.

 

[businesslawyer]

I think this analysis is very easy. I don't care how good our first round opponent is (assuming our seeding range is 7 to 12, being overly broad). If we can't win our first game, we're not going anywhere anyway, and whether we lose in the first round or second round doesn't matter much to me. I want our second round game to be as easy as possible, because for any dignity to be salvaged from the disappointing season they have to get to the Regional. Thus, a 7 or 10 is better than an 8 or 9, by a huge amount, and an 11 would be better than a 7 or 10 and a 12 would be better than an 11.

If I were in charge, we'd be a 10. (Duke in Greensboro anyone?) but we'll see.