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Message: [QUOTE="auror, post: 4223622, member: 1329"] Whoops yeah I moved a decimal too far somewhere. So 10x less likely, not 100x. That brings up an interesting point, though. We were not fortunate in 2014. We played pretty much exactly the average difficulty path. Ken's log numbers are pre-tournament, based on simulating the tournament and getting an average. My numbers listed are the actual game probabilities during the run on game day. We played 10, 2, 3 (they were a bit overseeded, more like a 5), 4 (but they were a top 8 team when we played them), 1 and then 8 (but they were a top 10 team by the time we played them). So it's like we played 10, 2, 5, 2, 1, 3. The pre-tournament and actual probabilities lined up extremely well. [/QUOTE]