Quick question about the “parity” narrative | The Boneyard

Quick question about the “parity” narrative

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So the narrative all season (since UConn’s first lost) is that there is finally parity in the women’s game. With UConn getting a 2 seed, there has been even more discussion about the so called “parity” in this year’s tournament. My question is what happens if UConn wins the tournament? I know it’s still early and I’m not asking about the chances that it happens, rather I’m asking what is said IF it happens? How does every sports journalist that touted the parity in the women’s game this year spin UConn winning for the 5th time in 7 years? Do they bring up that it was a “down year” and they’re only a 2 seed with a couple losses this year? What if Baylor wins it all? Is it still considered parity if the team with 1 loss that beat UConn during the regular season still considered parity? It was something that ran across my mind and I just wanted to hear some thoughts on it from others.
 
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My opinion, there still isn't parity. It's still the same teams at the top. As far as if UCONN wins, it will be the same story. "They get all the best players".
 
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I think the talking heads of wbb are trying to hype parity to bring the same level of excitement that we see in the men's tournament to wbb. To me, men's college basketball has more raw athletes, so the possibility of upsets/Cinderella runs is higher.

In the tournament so far, the women have 4 "upsets" heading into the sweet 16 (#5, #6, #6, #11). What happens in the next round will really speak to the current level of parity. I would not be shocked at all to see all four 1's and 2's advance to the elite eight. If that happens, has parity really reached the women's game? This year seems different, as for the first time there is definitely parity at the top. It can be argued that 6 of the top 8 teams could bring home the title. However, to say that parity has arrived to wbb seems like a big statement. The difference in athleticism and execution between say a 3 and 14 seed is still extremely large. Things are trending in the right direction, but I think parity is still somewhere on the horizon.
 
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I've addressed this issue very generally in other posts. I don't have a specific answer to the questions posed. But let me repeat the general argument I think correctly reflects the circumstances. Apologies to others if this is repetitive. (By the way, this is largely informed by the analysis and argument presented by Stephen Jay Gould in his book "Full House", specifically the middle section on the "The Decline of the .400 Hitter". If you've never read it, you should.)

1. In the past, WCBB likely reflected the performance of players that were, on the whole, less talented, less athletic, poorer passers, shooters, cutters, defenders, etc. than those playing today. This is, of course, an assumption. But it seems sound. Why? Because in every single sport that measures performance by reference to some absolute (such as a stop clock, and height, a distance, etc.), athletes today manifest performance that is objectively better than those performing 50 years ago. Why would this not be true in a sport like basketball? (Indeed, I am guessing that if one had the data, you might find that overall FT pct. has gone up over the decades in WCBB. I mention FT because it has the feature of measuring success by reference to an absolute that does not depend on competing against another player.)

2. Better performance is probably the result of a number of factors, including: larger pools from which to draw available talent (you see this in baseball, from the 1900s to the 2000s); better training; better diet; development and refinement of techniques; etc.

3. In sports that measure achievement (if only in part) by reference to direct competition between/among players/teams, the difference between the best and the worst will narrow over time, with overall performance of all athletes/teams improving (with the limitations of flesh and blood constituting the absolute barrier to possible achievement-- no one will ever be able to run a marathon in 90 minutes; no one will ever run the 100 meters in 5 seconds). You see this, for example, in the women's marathon. In the 1960s record time was over 3 hours. it was down to 2:20+ by the mid-80s. By the early 2000s, it was down to 2:15+. As the limits of human achievement are reached, the records get broken by fewer and fewer increments of time. Meanwhile, the difference between the best and the worst (among elite competitors) becomes less and less. (Again, you can verify this by looking at results in many sports.)

4. If we apply these assumptions to WCBB, then one would assume that the best teams are getting better over time, while the overall performance of all teams reflects general improvement as compared to teams playing 50 years ago. (It is in this respect that I hazard to guess that today's best teams would, on average, probably beat the best teams of 30 years ago and perhaps even 20 years ago.)

Of course, there will always be statistical variation. Nonetheless, as ability, technique, performance, etc. increases over time, the difference between best and second best, best and worst will narrow. Things may reach a point where it will be difficult to detect statistically significant differences between, say, the 2018-19 Huskies and the 2002-03 Huskies.

Footnote: I read an article awhile back suggesting that there has been a decline in the number of young women pursuing collegiate basketball, in lieu of other collegiate sports. If so, then that would constitute a stabilization or perhaps decrease in the pool of available talent.

Additionally, in order to make meaningful comparisons the above must be understood within the context of a normalization of rules, among other things.
 
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Only on this board could your team winning the NC serve as an inducement to WHINE EVEN MORE.
 

Monte

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Parity: "The state of being equal."

There is no sport which has parity. Go to Vegas and look at the odds board.
 
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college WBB has some parity at the moment if you consider that eight teams really have a chance to win it all................the men's game probably has about the same number................historically, when UConn gets the "right" players from among the best they have a good chance of winning............the big question is whether or not Geno can continue to attract those very special recruits in the future........
 

oldude

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I’ve been talking about the “Usual Suspects” for several years now. The same 1-2 teams win their respective conference titles every year. While there has been a little more competition in P-5 conferences this year, the only regular or conference tournament that was won by anyone that wasn’t easily predicted at the start of the season was Iowa in the BIG, and quite frankly the BIG as a conference is down this year.
 
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I've addressed this issue very generally in other posts. I don't have a specific answer to the questions posed. But let me repeat the general argument I think correctly reflects the circumstances. Apologies to others if this is repetitive. (By the way, this is largely informed by the analysis and argument presented by Stephen Jay Gould in his book "Full House", specifically the middle section on the "The Decline of the .400 Hitter". If you've never read it, you should.)

1. In the past, WCBB likely reflected the performance of players that were, on the whole, less talented, less athletic, poorer passers, shooters, cutters, defenders, etc. than those playing today. This is, of course, an assumption. But it seems sound. Why? Because in every single sport that measures performance by reference to some absolute (such as a stop clock, and height, a distance, etc.), athletes today manifest performance that is objectively better than those performing 50 years ago. Why would this not be true in a sport like basketball? (Indeed, I am guessing that if one had the data, you might find that overall FT pct. has gone up over the decades in WCBB. I mention FT because it has the feature of measuring success by reference to an absolute that does not depend on competing against another player.)

2. Better performance is probably the result of a number of factors, including: larger pools from which to draw available talent (you see this in baseball, from the 1900s to the 2000s); better training; better diet; development and refinement of techniques; etc.

3. In sports that measure achievement (if only in part) by reference to direct competition between/among players/teams, the difference between the best and the worst will narrow over time, with overall performance of all athletes/teams improving (with the limitations of flesh and blood constituting the absolute barrier to possible achievement-- no one will ever be able to run a marathon in 90 minutes; no one will ever run the 100 meters in 5 seconds). You see this, for example, in the women's marathon. In the 1960s record time was over 3 hours. it was down to 2:20+ by the mid-80s. By the early 2000s, it was down to 2:15+. As the limits of human achievement are reached, the records get broken by fewer and fewer increments of time. Meanwhile, the difference between the best and the worst (among elite competitors) becomes less and less. (Again, you can verify this by looking at results in many sports.)

4. If we apply these assumptions to WCBB, then one would assume that the best teams are getting better over time, while the overall performance of all teams reflects general improvement as compared to teams playing 50 years ago. (It is in this respect that I hazard to guess that today's best teams would, on average, probably beat the best teams of 30 years ago and perhaps even 20 years ago.)

Of course, there will always be statistical variation. Nonetheless, as ability, technique, performance, etc. increases over time, the difference between best and second best, best and worst will narrow. Things may reach a point where it will be difficult to detect statistically significant differences between, say, the 2018-19 Huskies and the 2002-03 Huskies.

Footnote: I read an article awhile back suggesting that there has been a decline in the number of young women pursuing collegiate basketball, in lieu of other collegiate sports. If so, then that would constitute a stabilization or perhaps decrease in the pool of available talent.

Additionally, in order to make meaningful comparisons the above must be understood within the context of a normalization of rules, among other things.
You had me at Stephen Jay Gould:)
 
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So the narrative all season (since UConn’s first lost) is that there is finally parity in the women’s game. With UConn getting a 2 seed, there has been even more discussion about the so called “parity” in this year’s tournament. My question is what happens if UConn wins the tournament? I know it’s still early and I’m not asking about the chances that it happens, rather I’m asking what is said IF it happens? How does every sports journalist that touted the parity in the women’s game this year spin UConn winning for the 5th time in 7 years? Do they bring up that it was a “down year” and they’re only a 2 seed with a couple losses this year? What if Baylor wins it all? Is it still considered parity if the team with 1 loss that beat UConn during the regular season still considered parity? It was something that ran across my mind and I just wanted to hear some thoughts on it from others.
I can't answer your questions, I doubt anyone can
My take on parity is this: There is parity of greatness or just outstandingness, There is parity of mediocrity. Finally there is parity of just plain terrible basketball. Except for U Tenn and Uconn the early years were a combination of the last to types of parity. Then from about 1995 on it became, for the top 10, more mediocrity with Uconn excelling.
More recently with the advent of the West Coast, Ms St, Baylor, and a few more they went from Mediocrity to something between that and outstanding. Some today are outstanding many more not.
Parity is in the mind of the beholder. Pundits will write according to their personal biases.
 
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Parity: "The state of being equal."

There is no sport which has parity. Go to Vegas and look at the odds board.

I don't think the original post means to read parity in the literal fashion you suggest. (That may explain the use of quotation marks around the term "parity".) As I understand the issue, the question is not whether teams are equal (as if such a thing could ever exist--every single game would, contrary to the rules, end in a tie, with every conceivable statistic identical for all players, in all games, all teams). Rather, the question is whether there is any evidence suggesting a tendency toward equality of performance as among all teams, or minimally among the best teams. For reasons I suggest above, it would be very surprising were that not the case. It certainly seems likely that a season's worth of basketball pitting today's top 10 teams against the top 10 teams of 30 years ago would likely result in today's teams with an overall higher combined winning percentage. Would the same be true respecting competition with teams 25 years ago? Quite likely. 20 years ago? Perhaps. 15? Hard to say.
 
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There is parity of mediocrity. Finally there is parity of just plain terrible basketball. Except for U Tenn and Uconn the early years were a combination of the last to types of parity. Then from about 1995 on it became, for the top 10, more mediocrity with Uconn excelling.
Don't know whether there is parity of mediocrity. That is almost certainly not true in many professional sports. The worst MLB teams of today could probably beat the best MLB teams of the 1920s. Likewise, the worst NHL teams of today could probably beat the best NHL teams of the 1940s. While I seriously doubt whether, say, Tulane 2018-19 could beat the 1997-98 Lady Vols, I suspect they are probably better than most of the 5-11 teams of that year. Could be wrong. But we'll never know.
 
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There is certainly more "parity" in the PAC-12 conference now than 10 years ago, and, the quality of the game has improved in the past 10 years. Whether that translates on the national level is another question.
 

meyers7

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So the narrative all season (since UConn’s first lost) is that there is finally parity in the women’s game. With UConn getting a 2 seed, there has been even more discussion about the so called “parity” in this year’s tournament. My question is what happens if UConn wins the tournament? I know it’s still early and I’m not asking about the chances that it happens, rather I’m asking what is said IF it happens? How does every sports journalist that touted the parity in the women’s game this year spin UConn winning for the 5th time in 7 years? Do they bring up that it was a “down year” and they’re only a 2 seed with a couple losses this year? What if Baylor wins it all? Is it still considered parity if the team with 1 loss that beat UConn during the regular season still considered parity? It was something that ran across my mind and I just wanted to hear some thoughts on it from others.
I'd more than willingly give up "parity" for another NC.
 
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I think in the WBB context "parity" normally means, "UConn is a lot better than everyone else and no one else really has a chance." If we have parity now - after the Stewie era - it's only because UConn isn't as good as they have been the last few years, and there are some other teams that are just as good as this sub-par UConn.

(Parity is way overrated - I'm hoping it won't last too long. In the Marvel world, with the release of Avengers: Endgame in late April, the superhero universe will be coming back into alignment. I'm hoping this also happens in the WCBB universe in early April.)
 

eebmg

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I think in the WBB context "parity" normally means, "UConn is a lot better than everyone else and no one else really has a chance." If we have parity now - after the Stewie era - it's only because UConn isn't as good as they have been the last few years, and there are some other teams that are just as good as this sub-par UConn.

(Parity is way overrated - I'm hoping it won't last too long. In the Marvel world, with the release of Avengers: Endgame in late April, the superhero universe will be coming back into alignment. I'm hoping this also happens in the WCBB universe in early April.)

Thanks. I was about to write something very very similar (without the Marvel Avengers slant ;))

Regarding the OP question, what will people say if UConn wins the NC?.

"This parity thing with different winners is not helping the bottom line. We need the UConn monster back. The NCAA (ESPN) wants UConn on top and the refs are on board " ;);););)
 
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4. If we apply these assumptions to WCBB, then one would assume that the best teams are getting better over time, while the overall performance of all teams reflects general improvement as compared to teams playing 50 years ago. (It is in this respect that I hazard to guess that today's best teams would, on average, probably beat the best teams of 30 years ago and perhaps even 20 years

I chose this portion of your post because I just rewatched the 2000 championship game with Tennessee which is 19 years ago. I don’t bring this up to refute your point but to give us a chance to reminisce while anxiously awaiting tonight’s game. Is there any doubt that a team with Svet, Shea,Sue, Tamika,Ashja, Swin and Schuey would have done well against this year’s competition. And of course the team got even better the following year with the addition of DT. As we fret about UCLA ‘s rebounding just think that in 2000 when Geno emptied the bench he brought in Paige Sauer and Stacey Hansemeyer. Who wouldn't like to have those two for tonight’s game?
 
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nwhoopfan

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The idea of "the usual suspects" should note that some of those schools are fairly recently added to the list. You don't have to go back very far to a time when Mississippi St., South Carolina, Oregon St. and Oregon weren't any part of any conversation about top teams in WCBB. Go back a bit further than that and Baylor wasn't included either. Louisville has made several deep runs in the Tourney but weren't consistent from year to year, I gotta think these last 2 years have been their best back to back seasons ever. Now granted some other schools (Tennessee most glaringly) have been displaced. Point is there have been quite a few new teams mixed in with traditional powers in a fairly short time frame.

Along the same line, the same teams winning their conference every year has certainly been shaken up in this same time frame. Recently Mississippi St. and South Carolina have been dominating the SEC. That is a recent development. As @LoTrader notes the Pac 12 has certainly seen changes. For decades Stanford won the conference almost every year. Now the 2 schools from Oregon have won it the last 5 years.
 
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With all due respect, during the Stewie years, the tourney was basically the "Uconn Invitational". I agree with the thought that the parity may have occurred with the top 8-10 teams in the country. Parity certainly doesn't exist between Baylor and Tennessee. And certainly Baylor didn't "rise up" to Tennessee as assumed by Coach Gordon at TN, in another thread. (I think after the first game = loss by TN.)
 
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When you consider the number of teams in this years tournament, that are capable of winning the NC compared to the numbers in the recent past that can be considered parity. The fact that Uconn is facing a team in the sweet 16 that some people believe is capable of beating them if they do not bring their A game. When was the last time that teams faced legit challenges this early? This potentially sets up a situation where Uconn will be facing four games in row were the possibility exists that if they don't play well they could lose. This generally didn't happen until the final four. From this point on Uconn seems to have the hardest row to hoe to even get to the final four. The more good games a team has to string together to stay alive increases the odds of not advancing do to one subpar game The elite 8 should really be a killer when one seeds will face some two seeds that could reasonably have been made one seeds themselves.
 
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Great question. First off, I think there is parity in the women's game, more so this season than ever. There are at least 8-10 teams that could, if all things fall in line, win it all this year, shows that there is parity this season. If UConn does when it all, that would be sweet! But we pretty much know that the comments by a good majority of people will be "This is UConn's finest title run. Considering the Field." Probably our greatest run since 1995.

If Baylor wins it all. I would still consider the win a nice tip of the hat to the level of parity in the league. Parity reflects on the level of equality within the community/setting. Like I said, there are at least 8-10 teams that, on any given day, could beat a #1 team.
 

MilfordHusky

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Parity is relative. I think it has increased. In 2016, I think UConn's probability of winning it all, per 538, was about 75%. That's total dominance. The following year, it was lower, but still above 50%. I think it was about 50% last year. This year, N.D. is the favorite, at about 30%. Certainly at the top, there is more balance.
 
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Only on this board could your team winning the NC serve as an inducement to WHINE EVEN MORE.
I’m not sure how this relates to my original post or anything anyone stated before your post. My question was about what those on ESPN or in the sports world in general would say about parity should UConn win? Would that saying of “UConn and everyone else” start making the rounds again or would it be “UConn was a no. 2 seed and won = parity” be the narrative they push? Or maybe some other narrative they’d start spouting if a different team won. I wanted to know what others thought might be said.
 
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Does anyone really want true parity? When baseball got closer to "parity" everyone complained about mediocrity. Th Tat is the definition. When everyone in a class gets a 90 on an exam statistics tell us that 90 is now average (whose grade is a C). I used this concept in a statistics course i taught. Before giving exams I asked the class if they wanted actual grades or be grades on the "curve". They wanted a curve, Everyone loved it when the first test was hard and a 62 was an A. Got a totally different reaction when I gave an easy test where the average was 92 and that got them a C. The UConn women like the Yankees of old were hated or loved but were required watching by both sides. In my view "good for the game".
 

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