Providence Spread

[HuskyWarrior611]

-4.5 on FanDuel

Over Under 141.5

Beat Marquette recently who has been pretty good in Big East play.

Probably not going to touch this one but with this being a rivalry game, Providence playing well as late, and it being on the road for us, it’d be impressive if we ended up winning convincingly. Would for sure be a great sign for the rest of the season.

 

[willie99]

Any win would be somewhat impressive

 

[XLCenterFan]

All in on moneyline. Mortgage on moneyline. Great price. Don’t care if it’s -350. Roll winnings into Creighton game moneyline.

 

[HeGotGame]

61% of the bets on UConn, but 52% of the handle on PC.

Line sits at -5 currently.

 

[Tenspro2002]

All in on moneyline. Mortgage on moneyline. Great price. Don’t care if it’s -350. Roll winnings into Creighton game moneyline.

The moneyline I saw was -210.

 

[auror]

Taking over 142 and Providence moneyline +185.

1) Providence has been playing better than their ranking for a month now. The metrics have not caught up. According to Torvik, if you took only the last month, Prov would be a 4.5 point favorite. It's silly to use a smaller sample size and I do think we should be favored, but I'm grabbing that +185.
2) Their home court advantage in a rivalry game is a real factor. Their fans gonna be AMPed.
3) I don't like the matchup of their offensive strengths aligned to our defensive weakness. We always foul too much, they love to draw fouls. We're a good defensive rebounding team, but I worry at home they're going to be the tougher team and beat us on the boards a bit. They've got more strength/BMI than us at almost every position outside of Sanogo. Their best offensive player is matched up against our slightly undersized starting freshman. We will likely see Jackson on him too, but I also worry about him picking up a couple fouls there,
4) One underlying thing I think is a point in our favor is that their strong start in conference play has been in part due to locking down the opposing perimeter. Teams have shot miserably from 3 against them recently, which is likely a reflection of their defense, but also likely has a heavy luck component and is due for some regression. Outside of Hawkins, we really only take open 3s and both our offense and personnel generates them (and defenses have been picking their poison and it has been open 3s lately). They're not going to shut us down completely by feeding us open 3s, so both teams should score, thus the over.

 

[CTBasketball]

Taking over 142 and Providence moneyline +185.

1) Providence has been playing better than their ranking for a month now. The metrics have not caught up. According to Torvik, if you took only the last month, Prov would be a 4.5 point favorite. It's silly to use a smaller sample size and I do think we should be favored, but I'm grabbing that +185.
2) Their home court advantage in a rivalry game is a real factor. Their fans gonna be AMPed.
3) I don't like the matchup of their offensive strengths aligned to our defensive weakness. We always foul too much, they love to draw fouls. We're a good defensive rebounding team, but I worry at home they're going to be the tougher team and beat us on the boards a bit. They've got more strength/BMI than us at almost every position outside of Sanogo. Their best offensive player is matched up against our slightly undersized starting freshman. We will likely see Jackson on him too, but I also worry about him picking up a couple fouls there,
4) One underlying thing I think is a point in our favor is that their strong start in conference play has been in part due to locking down the opposing perimeter. Teams have shot miserably from 3 against them recently, which is likely a reflection of their defense, but also likely has a heavy luck component and is due for some regression. Outside of Hawkins, we really only take open 3s and both our offense and personnel generates them (and defenses have been picking their poison and it has been open 3s lately). They're not going to shut us down completely by feeding us open 3s, so both teams should score, thus the over.

 

[Letsgohuskies11]

Taking over 142 and Providence moneyline +185.

1) Providence has been playing better than their ranking for a month now. The metrics have not caught up. According to Torvik, if you took only the last month, Prov would be a 4.5 point favorite. It's silly to use a smaller sample size and I do think we should be favored, but I'm grabbing that +185.
2) Their home court advantage in a rivalry game is a real factor. Their fans gonna be AMPed.
3) I don't like the matchup of their offensive strengths aligned to our defensive weakness. We always foul too much, they love to draw fouls. We're a good defensive rebounding team, but I worry at home they're going to be the tougher team and beat us on the boards a bit. They've got more strength/BMI than us at almost every position outside of Sanogo. Their best offensive player is matched up against our slightly undersized starting freshman. We will likely see Jackson on him too, but I also worry about him picking up a couple fouls there,
4) One underlying thing I think is a point in our favor is that their strong start in conference play has been in part due to locking down the opposing perimeter. Teams have shot miserably from 3 against them recently, which is likely a reflection of their defense, but also likely has a heavy luck component and is due for some regression. Outside of Hawkins, we really only take open 3s and both our offense and personnel generates them (and defenses have been picking their poison and it has been open 3s lately). They're not going to shut us down completely by feeding us open 3s, so both teams should score, thus the over.

I get it but i cant actively bet/and or root against my team. If i think there's no shot, I'm not betting or I'd bet something like UConn +4.

 

[auror]

I get it but i cant actively bet/and or root against my team. If i think there's no shot, I'm not betting or I'd bet something like UConn +4.

The key is I don't bet enough money to have to worry about losing it, so I can root purely for UConn. And if UConn loses, well then there's a little bonus to lift my mood. But this isn't a purely emotional hedge, I do believe what I posted above. Also, I didn't mention in the post, but Cooley is really good against the spread as an underdog.

 

[superjohn]

Auror makes it out that every team UConn is going up against is like the '72-73 UCLA Bruins.

 

[Tenspro2002]

The key is I don't bet enough money to have to worry about losing it, so I can root purely for UConn. And if UConn loses, well then there's a little bonus to lift my mood. But this isn't a purely emotional hedge, I do believe what I posted above. Also, I didn't mention in the post, but Cooley is really good against the spread as an underdog.

If you're betting Providence, I agree with betting moneyline instead of ATS. I don't see us pulling out a close game. I think we either win by 10 or lose by 3-5.

 

[CTBasketball]

The key is I don't bet enough money to have to worry about losing it, so I can root purely for UConn. And if UConn loses, well then there's a little bonus to lift my mood. But this isn't a purely emotional hedge, I do believe what I posted above. Also, I didn't mention in the post, but Cooley is really good against the spread as an underdog.

I hope UConn wins by 35 and you wake up with a runny nose.

 

[Chin Diesel]

I'd feel safest with the under.

 

[auror]

Auror makes it out that every team UConn is going up against is like the '72-73 UCLA Bruins.

In the score predictions threads, that was mostly shtick, a copypasta variation of Doooomed. But I've retired that since we actually lost (I put UConn 4 point win this time). But I did bet Xavier and Providence moneylines, the only two times I've bet an opponent moneyline (I think, I don't really remember PKI). These are 2 of our ~4 toughest games all year. Providence has covered 7 straight games and we've failed to cover 3 straight. Our early season perception of both teams is off and converging closer together but the odds have not quite adjusted. We're implied to win 68% of the time with a 5 point line (KenPom has us 72% chance to win). I think we're closer to 55-60% chance.

If you're betting Providence, I agree with betting moneyline instead of ATS. I don't see us pulling out a close game. I think we either win by 10 or lose by 3-5.

This is also part of it. Have we forgotten Hurley teams in close games vs. Cooley teams in close games so soon? With Providence at home?

I hope UConn wins by 35 and you wake up with a runny nose.

That would be a great outcome.

 

[XLCenterFan]

The moneyline I saw was -210.

I was joking. Trying to antagonize a fellow BY member who despises moneyline favorites.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I'd feel safest with the under.

Yep. I think our D is well situated to shut PC down. I think our offense is likely to have challenges with their D, as they will try to take away the paint. If we go nuts outside or turnovers speed the game up, maybe there's risk of the over.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

But I did bet Xavier and Providence moneylines, the only two times I've bet an opponent moneyline (I think, I don't really remember PKI).

If we lose tonight you’re not allowed to bet the opponent money line anymore.

 

[Scrutineer]

-4.5 on FanDuel

Over Under 141.5

Beat Marquette recently who has been pretty good in Big East play.

Probably not going to touch this one but with this being a rivalry game, Providence playing well as late, and it being on the road for us, it’d be impressive if we ended up winning convincingly. Would for sure be a great sign for the rest of the season.

PC by 4.5? Hard to believe it's so little.......Marquette is for real.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

PC by 4.5? Hard to believe it's so little.......Marquette is for real.

?

 

[HeGotGame]

PC by 4.5? Hard to believe it's so little.......Marquette is for real.

No. -4.5 means UConn is favored by 4.5 points.

 

[methodology]

I was joking. Trying to antagonize a fellow BY member who despises moneyline favorites.

No it’s called giving sound betting advice. There’s a reason I’m + money over the past 5 years and one of the only times I posted games I think they were 5-0 that day.

ML favorites are what Vegas dreams about. Pay all that vig you’ll have to hit at 70-80% to be profitable

 

[SoFla Steve]

Caesars Sportsbook has us favored by 5.5. Over/Under is 142.5.

 

[XLCenterFan]

No it’s called giving sound betting advice. There’s a reason I’m + money over the past 5 years and one of the only times I posted games I think they were 5-0 that day.

ML favorites are what Vegas dreams about. Pay all that vig you’ll have to hit at 70-80% to be profitable

There you are. Was wondering when Billy Walters would crawl out.

 

[auror]

Taking over 142 and Providence moneyline +185.

1) Providence has been playing better than their ranking for a month now. The metrics have not caught up. According to Torvik, if you took only the last month, Prov would be a 4.5 point favorite. It's silly to use a smaller sample size and I do think we should be favored, but I'm grabbing that +185.
2) Their home court advantage in a rivalry game is a real factor. Their fans gonna be AMPed.
3) I don't like the matchup of their offensive strengths aligned to our defensive weakness. We always foul too much, they love to draw fouls. We're a good defensive rebounding team, but I worry at home they're going to be the tougher team and beat us on the boards a bit. They've got more strength/BMI than us at almost every position outside of Sanogo. Their best offensive player is matched up against our slightly undersized starting freshman. We will likely see Jackson on him too, but I also worry about him picking up a couple fouls there,
4) One underlying thing I think is a point in our favor is that their strong start in conference play has been in part due to locking down the opposing perimeter. Teams have shot miserably from 3 against them recently, which is likely a reflection of their defense, but also likely has a heavy luck component and is due for some regression. Outside of Hawkins, we really only take open 3s and both our offense and personnel generates them (and defenses have been picking their poison and it has been open 3s lately). They're not going to shut us down completely by feeding us open 3s, so both teams should score, thus the over.

Oh well Their perimeter D ghosts continued to bother our wide open 3 point shooters so the over didn't hit, But game played out pretty much exactly as expected.

 

[Scrutineer]

?

No. -4.5 means UConn is favored by 4.5 points.

My lame attempt at sarcasm.
I combined with my observation about Marquette being a very good team with my premonition about this game. Marquette is for real, beat Baylor away, and took PC to OT.
Also, in another thread I said I was concerned about Hopkins, Carter and the quickness of the Providence guards. The outcome we got was what I feared.