Reply to thread

Message: [QUOTE="Kemba Time, post: 4210427, member: 2962"] Let’s be very clear: I am not saying Providence is winning any tournaments this year. When a team outperforms a statistical model by an extreme amount, it’s as likely an outlier the model doesn’t account for as a fluke in team performance. KenPom’s model is just arrogant enough to call that variance “luck” instead of what it truly is. KenPom’s algorithm is essentially attempting to do what Pathagreom W-L does in baseball. When an MLB team outperforms its Expected Record, it is usually because of an outlier such as a strong bullpen, top-heavy pitching rotation, extreme defense or weak offense that defy run differential. Or in simple terms: Being the San Francisco Giants. Providence has that feel to this season as well, an 18-6ish say talent level performing to a 22-3 actual record because of a proven ability to win some of their losses, leaving their True Value somewhere in the middle. I wouldn’t bet them to make win it all or make the Final Four, but you also wouldn’t bet them to lose to Washington State, Indiana or any of the other teams near them in KenPom’s model. [/QUOTE]