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Message: [QUOTE="pj, post: 4452397, member: 2524"] Just quantifying how much free throw percentage matters. There's an element of luck in the tourney of course, but yes, the 3rd best team has a better chance than the 4th best team. To quantify that, we can look at historical data -- the #1 seeds win the NCAA tourney 16% of the team and the #2 seeds 3.5% of the time ([URL="https://www.betfirm.com/seeds-national-championship-odds/"]History of Records By Seed in the NCAA Tournament[/URL]). The difference between 3rd best and 4th best teams (both 1 seeds) is probably about 1/4 the difference between a 1 and 2 seed, so the 4th best team will have a chance to win the championship about 3% lower than the 3rd best team. So if you take KenPom numbers seriously, if UConn could increase their free throw shooting percentage from 73.6% to 78% while keeping everything else the same, it would increase their chance of winning the national championship this year from something like 12% to 15% or 10% to 13%. Which strikes me as a meaningful change, similar to a betting odds change from 8:1 to 7:1. [/QUOTE]