Of the current players, who are likely to finish near the top in career scoring?
As of today:
#1 Diana
#2 Tina 3,009 behind
#5 DeWanna 3,173 behind
#12 Nneka 4,180 behind
#21 BG 5,118 behind
#22 Jewell 5,125 behind
#23 Stewie 5,392 behind
Others still playing:
#31 EDD
#32 KMac
#33 Skylar
#35 A'ja
#36 Tiffany
How high will Arike go? How about Caitlin?
Players today have an advantage of 40 game seasons so a lot of these might fall, especially if the league continues to expand and lengthen the season. Looking at DT's career, from 2004-2019, each season was 34 games long. 2020 was only 22 games due to the pandemic, 2021 was 32 games, 2022 was 36 games, 2023 and 2024 are 40.
I think the strongest candidates to break DT's record among current players are A'ja Wilson, Breanna Stewart, Arike Ogunbowale and Caitlin Clark.
Wilson has a higher career average in PPG than DT, very little injury history and is in the peak of her career right now at just 28 years of age. Realistically she could rack up close to 1000 points per season over the next 5-6 years and would be close to hitting 10k at just 33-34 years old. Right now I'd bet on her breaking DTs record.
Breanna Stewart-she also could be on pace to break DT's record, though her missing a full year in 2019 dampers her chances a bit of staying ahead of Wilson long term. I think she has a shot to break DT's record but think she'll have a hard time fending off A'ja.
Similarly, Arike is putting up massive numbers and has a career average higher than DT. I don't see her catching Wilson though unless A'ja gets injured or significantly slows down her production. Wilson is only 5 months older than Arike but about 700 points ahead of her, and is scoring at a much higher rate right now. Also, Arike hasn't put up her big numbers playing for a contender. She's led a middle of the pack to bottom feeder franchise in Dallas, so if she wants to win a title, she likely needs to join forces with other stars and her role will be reduced where she wont be able to be a volume shooter. Comparatively, Wilson is putting up these numbers on title winning teams and is the centerpiece of a top tier franchise.
Caitlin Clark is the biggest wildcard. She's having an all time great rookie season and is scoring well, but the biggest aspect of her game is her passing, rather than her shooting. She has the benefit of playing 40 game seasons for the foreseeable future which allows her to rack up more points than those who played in 34 game season. For example, A'ja as a rookie averaged 20.7 ppg and scored 682 in total her rookie season. Clark is averaging 17.8, but is projected to score 712 this year. She's having a monster rookie season and could take it to new heights in the next couple of years, obviously she's one to keep an eye on.
Another player to keep an eye on:
Dewanna Bonner-she's an iron woman who has never had any notable injuries and is the model of consistency in the WNBA. She's 37 so she likely will slow down in the next few years, but if she continues at her current pace she could come close to DT.
Also worth noting, who knows when DT will actually stop playing. She's still putting up solid numbers on a mid-tier team at 42 and has filled this role the last 5 or so years without any notable signs of slowing down. If she plays a couple of more years and can average 15ish per game, that'll make the record even more difficult to reach.
