Projecting scoring for 22-23 season

[#12in21]

Projected scoring for 22-23 season

Azzi 30min 13.01 (based on 21-22 stats)
Caroline 25min 11.67 (based on 21-22 stats)
Nika 25min 4.38 (based on 21-22 stats)
Aaliyah 30min 9.52 (based on 21-22 stats)
Dorka 25min 9.22 (based on 21-22 stats)
135min 47.80

Lou 20min 11.44 (based on 21-22 stats)
Innes 5min ?
Ice 8min ?
Amari 8min 1.85 (based on 21-22 stats)
Aubrey 15min 5.54 (based on 20-21 stats)
Ayanna 9min ?_____________
45min 18.83

Total projected 22-23 66.63 x 105% = 69.96
Needed from rest of bench 7.17 3.84 to match 21-22 season of 73.8/game
Needed from rest of bench 15.27 11.94 to match 20-21 season of 81.9/game

Taking a look at past performance and adjusting for possible expected minutes the above shows what we would need from Innes, Ice and Ayanna to match 21-22 and 20-21 season scoring averages. If players up their performance each by 5% we only need 3.84 points/gm from those three to match last years numbers and 11.94 points/gm to match 20-21 numbers. I think we can expect an even greater overall jump from the starters over last years averages and all indications are that we can also expect significant contributions from the rest of the squad. That coupled with, IMO, a stronger possible defensive potential from this group makes me even more excited to see what this season has in store for our women!

 

[#12in21]

Projected scoring for 22-23 season

Azzi 30min 13.01 (based on 21-22 stats)
Caroline 25min 11.67 (based on 21-22 stats)
Nika 25min 4.38 (based on 21-22 stats)
Aaliyah 30min 9.52 (based on 21-22 stats)
Dorka 25min 9.22 (based on 21-22 stats)
135min 47.80

Lou 20min 11.44 (based on 21-22 stats)
Innes 5min ?
Ice 8min ?
Amari 8min 1.85 (based on 21-22 stats)
Aubrey 15min 5.54 (based on 20-21 stats)
Ayanna 9min ?_____________
45min 18.83

Total projected 22-23 66.63 x 105% = 69.96
Needed from rest of bench 7.17 3.84 to match 21-22 season of 73.8/game
Needed from rest of bench 15.27 11.94 to match 20-21 season of 81.9/game

Taking a look at past performance and adjusting for possible expected minutes the above shows what we would need from Innes, Ice and Ayanna to match 21-22 and 20-21 season scoring averages. If players up their performance each by 5% we only need 3.84 points/gm from those three to match last years numbers and 11.94 points/gm to match 20-21 numbers. I think we can expect an even greater overall jump from the starters over last years averages and all indications are that we can also expect significant contributions from the rest of the squad. That coupled with, IMO, a stronger possible defensive potential from this group makes me even more excited to see what this season has in store for our women!

Spacing was lost on above chart. To clarify 22-23 projected average without Innes, Ice and Ayanna is 66.63 pts/game, to match 21-22 we need 7.17 pt/gm from them or if the others raise their avg. by 5% we need 3.84 pt/gm. To match 20-21 season we need 15.27 pt/gm from them or if the others raise their avg. by 5% we need 11.94 pt/gm.

 

[Bone Dog]

One huge variable here concerns the playing time of the 3 great scorers on this squad. If Azzi Caroline Lou get more than 20 mins each, I'd expect to see more than 45 points from them. I suspect it's likely Azzi and Caroline will play more like 30 mins each, and if Lou plays good enough D to earn 30 mins, we could be looking at totals more like 50+ from this group. Under that assumption, on any given night I'd expect at least one of them to score 20+, and the other two to score ~15.

The last two years, Geno has complained that the Huskies don't shoot well -- and many of us have noticed this, too. But this year, it looks like we finally have some serious perimeter shooting talent. This should take a lot of the pressure off Dorka and Aaliyah, i.e. less double teams in the paint.

Given this talent, I think we're looking at avg team scoring >80 pts/gm.

 

[GEAinAustin]

Ayanna 9 minutes ? She will have more minutes in the 1st half alone!

 

[BIGMAC]

UCONN= A LOT, Opponents=very little

 

[#12in21]

Ayanna 9 minutes ? She will have more minutes in the 1st half alone!

Not disputing that. The point of my post was to suggest we are in pretty good shape despite the loss of our two top scorers from last season (Paige and Christyn). How the minutes break out is yet to be seen. I just went with the projected starting five from an earlier Boneyard poll and gave Lou and Aubrey the most of the remaining minutes (along with Innes - Azzi, Caroline, Nika, and Lou make up 120 minutes at the 3 guard positions). I assumed that Aaliyah and Dorka would take up 55 of the 80 forward/center minutes, which left 25 remaining for Amari, Ice and Ayanna. If the projected starters are replaced in minutes by any of the others, one would assume they are more productive than those they replaced so the overall average would rise.

I wasn't really making a judgement on how many minutes anyone should play just trying to show that our baseline points average for next year (based on past experience) is very good. Only needing 11-15 points from the trio of Ayanna, Ice and Innes to average 80 pts/gm isn't unrealistic. Odds are good that several returning and new players will overachieve what's shown in the projections!

 

[hoophuskee]

Not disputing that. The point of my post was to suggest we are in pretty good shape despite the loss of our two top scorers from last season (Paige and Christyn). How the minutes break out is yet to be seen. I just went with the projected starting five from an earlier Boneyard poll and gave Lou and Aubrey the most of the remaining minutes (along with Innes - Azzi, Caroline, Nika, and Lou make up 120 minutes at the 3 guard positions). I assumed that Aaliyah and Dorka would take up 55 of the 80 forward/center minutes, which left 25 remaining for Amari, Ice and Ayanna. If the projected starters are replaced in minutes by any of the others, one would assume they are more productive than those they replaced so the overall average would rise.

I wasn't really making a judgement on how many minutes anyone should play just trying to show that our baseline points average for next year (based on past experience) is very good. Only needing 11-15 points from the trio of Ayanna, Ice and Innes to average 80 pts/gm isn't unrealistic. Odds are good that several returning and new players will overachieve what's shown in the projections!

The issue is going to be what will their scoring averages be vs top 5 teams, vs top 10 teams, vs top 20. When Paige was healthy you could rely on her to score at a certain level despite the defense keyed in on her. Of which she drew so much attention it provided others with opportunities.

Losing the seniors along with Paige is brutal. It's nice to say as a fan "I'm not worried about it . . ." But UCONN lost a ton of offense and playmaking ability. One game here or there a player gets tight or is banged up or is a bad matchup - we UCONN fans don't take losing very well. Last year UCONN "only" made it to the Finals and didn't "win." For quite a few "that is a failure" (not mine.). As a result, postgame posts of negativity unfortunately may become more prevalent. . . . I hope not.

A lot is wide open this year. For one thing, I'm hopeful Azzi can score vs anyone and get us at least 16 vs top teams while being somewhat efficient. And ofc many other things / players are important but I'm hopeful Dorka and Lou are very, very good. I'm also hopeful that either Brady or Patterson are very good 4's this year or maybe backup 5's too with Brady. And I'm hopeful Nika can hit outside shots.

 

[visitingcock]

I've been waiting for a "divide 200 minutes" thread.

 

[GEAinAustin]

72 pts. per game seems to be the baseline average for U Conn , they may very well exceed that this season , even without Bueckers .

 

[SVCBeercats]

IMO, a stronger possible defensive potential from this group makes me even more excited to see what this season has in store for our women!

 

[Inthepaint]

The issue is going to be what will their scoring averages be vs top 5 teams, vs top 10 teams, vs top 20. When Paige was healthy you could rely on her to score at a certain level despite the defense keyed in on her. Of which she drew so much attention it provided others with opportunities.

Losing the seniors along with Paige is brutal. It's nice to say as a fan "I'm not worried about it . . ." But UCONN lost a ton of offense and playmaking ability. One game here or there a player gets tight or is banged up or is a bad matchup - we UCONN fans don't take losing very well. Last year UCONN "only" made it to the Finals and didn't "win." For quite a few "that is a failure" (not mine.). As a result, postgame posts of negativity unfortunately may become more prevalent. . . . I hope not.

A lot is wide open this year. For one thing, I'm hopeful Azzi can score vs anyone and get us at least 16 vs top teams while being somewhat efficient. And ofc many other things / players are important but I'm hopeful Dorka and Lou are very, very good. I'm also hopeful that either Brady or Patterson are very good 4's this year or maybe backup 5's too with Brady. And I'm hopeful Nika can hit outside shots.

Expect the unexpected
Good & bad

 

[darrell]

View attachment 79451

The way Geno has spoken about Lou, I’m expecting way more than 10 minutes from her.

 

[UConnCat]

If Lou plays 10 minutes and averages 4 points this team will struggle. Geno didn’t recently say “thank god for Lou” while thinking she’ll score 4 points per game. It’s more than a little unsettling that this team will need scoring from a guard/wing who played at Fairfield last season but that’s where this team is. Azzi, Caroline and Lou will need to put up points.

 

[cgshuskie]

Boy oh Boy there is such little faith! I'm confident tha Lou will rise to the occasion and score big
at Uconn. She is a good, talented and experienced player. Watch out for her outdoing Evina's
as far as putting the ball in the hoop. Go Lou!

 

[BobbyJ]

If Lou plays 10 minutes and averages 4 points this team will struggle. Geno didn’t recently say “thank god for Lou” while thinking she’ll score 4 points per game. It’s more than a little unsettling that this team will need scoring from a guard/wing who played at Fairfield last season but that’s where this team is. Azzi, Caroline and Lou will need to put up points.

Exactly. Without Bueckers' creativity being available, I'm surprised at how much some people are overrating this team's offensive potential. They'll need everything Lou can give them and have to hope Brady and Patterson can develop quickly.

 

[UConnCat]

Exactly. Without Bueckers' creativity being available, I'm surprised at how much some people are overrating this team's offensive potential. They'll need everything Lou can give them and have to hope Brady and Patterson can develop quickly.

And look to steal some points on defense with Ayanna and (hopefully) a healthy Aubrey and on the boards with Ayanna and Ice.

 

[hoophuskee]

Exactly. Without Bueckers' creativity being available, I'm surprised at how much some people are overrating this team's offensive potential. They'll need everything Lou can give them and have to hope Brady and Patterson can develop quickly.

I'm not arguing but I think there's a thought that Dorka and Edwards can be much better versions offensively than Liv and Edwards of last year along with everything you said too. And the expectation is that Azzi and Caroline should be much better versions than last year as well as both of them were hurt. Three of the four core players I just mentioned were either hurt or sick in multiple big games last year.

 

[Bigboote]

I see this year’s team in the same neighborhood offensively as last year’s — low to mid 70’s on average. I think if they go far it will be with defense. And I think that’s quite possible.

I have dreams of a 1-2-2 press with Nika on the ball, Aubrey and Caroline in the middle, and Ayanna and Aaliyah at the other end. 2-3 minutes of that in the second and third quarters oughta break the opponents’ spirit.

We also have a lot of kids with high basketball IQs and good size and strength on this team, so they may play a very good version of the UConn switching defense.

And while I’m wildly speculating, it’s possible, just possible that Azzi and Caroline could have sophomore leaps a la Lou and Napheesa.

 

[TCC Kid]

One huge variable here concerns the playing time of the 3 great scorers on this squad. If Azzi Caroline Lou get more than 20 mins each, I'd expect to see more than 45 points from them. I suspect it's likely Azzi and Caroline will play more like 30 mins each, and if Lou plays good enough D to earn 30 mins, we could be looking at totals more like 50+ from this group. Under that assumption, on any given night I'd expect at least one of them to score 20+, and the other two to score ~15.

The last two years, Geno has complained that the Huskies don't shoot well -- and many of us have noticed this, too. But this year, it looks like we finally have some serious perimeter shooting talent. This should take a lot of the pressure off Dorka and Aaliyah, i.e. less double teams in the paint.

Given this talent, I think we're looking at avg team scoring >80 pts/gm.

If Uconn can score their normal (winning seasons) average the end results may feed the needs of the NC fans.
DeBerry, if she can't give 15 really good minutes---???
Lou, Div 1 shooting may draw tougher defense. However, I'm a believer a shooter can shoot Div 2 or WNBA.
Dorka has the ability to hit the 3, hasn't hit them consistent enough, layups ??? suspect. I hope she proves this year she can hit both when needed.

 

[TCC Kid]

Boy oh Boy there is such little faith! I'm confident tha Lou will rise to the occasion and score big
at Uconn. She is a good, talented and experienced player. Watch out for her outdoing Evina's
as far as putting the ball in the hoop. Go Lou!

We long time UCWBB fans have seen many come and many leave without ever living up to the good words they received as they arrived. I'll cheer loudly if she is 1/2 half as good as advertised! Obviously, that ball handling/scoring skill set is really needed.
Evina's real factor for Uconn was 2 fold. Calming creation in tough situations. Just by being on the floor gave the new kids comfort. And, drilling the needed three or layup. She seemed to be able to score when the team was in a drought.

 

[TCC Kid]

If Lou plays 10 minutes and averages 4 points this team will struggle. Geno didn’t recently say “thank god for Lou” while thinking she’ll score 4 points per game. It’s more than a little unsettling that this team will need scoring from a guard/wing who played at Fairfield last season but that’s where this team is. Azzi, Caroline and Lou will need to put up points.

Geno also said of Caroline: I'll take 6 more like her. He played her heavily when Paige was seated, and not so much on return.
My observation may be tainted 2 ways. I'm high, high, high on Caroline AND maybe Geno knew more about Caroline's pain than we did!
I've post over and over on this forum: Scorers/Basketball players (talented) can play at any level. The game may be fasters, more intense, but talent remains--I hope.

 

[TCC Kid]

I've been waiting for a "divide 200 minutes" thread.

Considering the game as an asymptotic infected sinissoid, ---if Caroline runs straight for 30 minutes, Ameri runs circles for 22 minutes, with Ayanna perpendicular for 6 minutes,
What is Azzi doing on the floor? No need to use 200 minutes.

 

[Bone Dog]

Lou was a scorer at Fairfield when she was the main target of opposing defenses. I suspect she’ll have an easier time getting her shot with Azzi and Caroline on the floor.

 

[Next 12]

Geno also said of Caroline: I'll take 6 more like her. He played her heavily when Paige was seated, and not so much on return.
My observation may be tainted 2 ways. I'm high, high, high on Caroline AND maybe Geno knew more about Caroline's pain than we did!
I've post over and over on this forum: Scorers/Basketball players (talented) can play at any level. The game may be fasters, more intense, but talent remains--I hope.

AMEN. the team we have right now will surprise all the doubters in short order. The team will gel after the Texas game and everyone will have a sound idea in what direction they will go. UCONN has too many outstanding shooters for any one to think that they won't hit 80+ points each game. I will concede an exceptional defense might hold them to the low 70's, but that will be rare. This year I can see NO.12. I begin this season with the highest hopes I've had during the off season. GO HUSKIES!!!

 

[Bone Dog]

AMEN. the team we have right now will surprise all the doubters in short order. The team will gel after the Texas game and everyone will have a sound idea in what direction they will go. UCONN has too many outstanding shooters for any one to think that they won't hit 80+ points each game. I will concede an exceptional defense might hold them to the low 70's, but that will be rare. This year I can see NO.12. I begin this season with the highest hopes I've had during the off season. GO HUSKIES!!!

I’m with you on this speculation. 80+/game

I’ve also been thinking about that Texas game. We’ve played against Sonya Morris at DePaul, and she can be a handful. Pairing her with Rori Harmon and Shaylee Gonzales will make Texas very challenging. I think Nika Azzi Lou and Caroline will be able to handle them. But they’ll learn a lot about themselves in the effort. I doubt the Texas post players will be competitive with Aaliyah Dorka Ice and Ayanna.