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Using SP+ rankings, I took a look at our remaining schedule. I know most teams have only played 1 or 2 games, but I think it's a good exercise in how we match up to our future opponents.
UConn #122 overall (#128 offense, #82 defense, #46 special teams)
Wagner (NR) - W
Illinois #73 (93o, 40d, 24s) - L
at Indiana #40 (57o, 44d, 1s)
at UCF #17 (45o, 23d, 92s)
USF #97 (122o, 34d, 118s)
at Tulane #74 (104o, 36d, 13s)
Houston #60 (37o, 99d, 28s)
at UMass #129 (108o, 129d, 103s)
Navy #102 (71o, 107d, 3s)
at Cincy #62 (100o, 29d, 61s)
ECU #113 (92o, 106d, 33s)
at Temple #44 (49o, 57d, 63s)
Luckily, we face the 3 worst AAC teams (USF, Navy, ECU) all at home this season. Obviously there is a lot of football to play before we play those three teams, but I don't see how we're not favorites vs. ECU, a pick-em vs. Navy and probably a 4 or 5 point underdog vs USF. More importantly, all three of those games are winnable.
The next two games (at Indiana and UCF) will be by far is the toughest two-game stretch of the season. Hopefully, Jack Z gets some important life lessons playing two top 45 defenses so when we face a very good USF defense at home he'll keep us in the game. Indiana's defense is comparable to Illinois, and I can't imagine Bloomington is that intimating of a home-field advantage, so Jack might be able to keep the game close on his side of the ball. We all know how the at UCF will probably look like, unfortunately
USF at home next is winnable purely because our defense won't be overpowered, so it will depend on the beforementioned Jack Z learnings. Next up in New Orleans is against a Tulane team comparable to USF (bad offense, good defense) so again it will come down to our offense to keep us in the game. One would imagine Jack Z should improve as he gets more reps, so who knows, we might be able to steal a game down in NOLA.
If you watched Houston vs Oklahoma in Week 1, it is unlikely our improved defense has a shot at slowing them down. We'll probably be 10+ point dogs at home and the score will probably end up by us losing in the high teens.
Fortunately, UMass is the one team on our remaining schedule actually rated worse than us, sporting the 2018 version of our defense so far. Our improved squad should, in theory, be able to grab a win in Amherst.
After UMass, our boys get a shot at their only real chance for back-to-back wins this season as the Midshipmen come to the Rent. Their offense nor defense doesn't really rate well, so it's definitely a winnable game. I said pick-em above, but we could be favorites if the team has continued to improve.
The final 3 games leaves only the middle home game vs ECU as the most likely final W of the season. Don't see this team scoring on the road vs Cincy or being able to stop Temple on both sides of the ball in Philly.
So overall, super best case scenario (which is extremely unlikely) we could end up with 6 (!) wins (Wagner, USF, at Tulane, at UMass, Navy, ECU). Now, I'm not that crazy, so I think the more realistic is ending up with 3 wins -- Wagner, UMass, and splitting one of the Navy/ECU games, most likely ECU. We hit the Vegas o2.5 and can build into next year with a relatively experienced QB and a defense that will be leaps and bounds better than where it was in 2018.
UConn #122 overall (#128 offense, #82 defense, #46 special teams)
Wagner (NR) - W
Illinois #73 (93o, 40d, 24s) - L
at Indiana #40 (57o, 44d, 1s)
at UCF #17 (45o, 23d, 92s)
USF #97 (122o, 34d, 118s)
at Tulane #74 (104o, 36d, 13s)
Houston #60 (37o, 99d, 28s)
at UMass #129 (108o, 129d, 103s)
Navy #102 (71o, 107d, 3s)
at Cincy #62 (100o, 29d, 61s)
ECU #113 (92o, 106d, 33s)
at Temple #44 (49o, 57d, 63s)
Luckily, we face the 3 worst AAC teams (USF, Navy, ECU) all at home this season. Obviously there is a lot of football to play before we play those three teams, but I don't see how we're not favorites vs. ECU, a pick-em vs. Navy and probably a 4 or 5 point underdog vs USF. More importantly, all three of those games are winnable.
The next two games (at Indiana and UCF) will be by far is the toughest two-game stretch of the season. Hopefully, Jack Z gets some important life lessons playing two top 45 defenses so when we face a very good USF defense at home he'll keep us in the game. Indiana's defense is comparable to Illinois, and I can't imagine Bloomington is that intimating of a home-field advantage, so Jack might be able to keep the game close on his side of the ball. We all know how the at UCF will probably look like, unfortunately
USF at home next is winnable purely because our defense won't be overpowered, so it will depend on the beforementioned Jack Z learnings. Next up in New Orleans is against a Tulane team comparable to USF (bad offense, good defense) so again it will come down to our offense to keep us in the game. One would imagine Jack Z should improve as he gets more reps, so who knows, we might be able to steal a game down in NOLA.
If you watched Houston vs Oklahoma in Week 1, it is unlikely our improved defense has a shot at slowing them down. We'll probably be 10+ point dogs at home and the score will probably end up by us losing in the high teens.
Fortunately, UMass is the one team on our remaining schedule actually rated worse than us, sporting the 2018 version of our defense so far. Our improved squad should, in theory, be able to grab a win in Amherst.
After UMass, our boys get a shot at their only real chance for back-to-back wins this season as the Midshipmen come to the Rent. Their offense nor defense doesn't really rate well, so it's definitely a winnable game. I said pick-em above, but we could be favorites if the team has continued to improve.
The final 3 games leaves only the middle home game vs ECU as the most likely final W of the season. Don't see this team scoring on the road vs Cincy or being able to stop Temple on both sides of the ball in Philly.
So overall, super best case scenario (which is extremely unlikely) we could end up with 6 (!) wins (Wagner, USF, at Tulane, at UMass, Navy, ECU). Now, I'm not that crazy, so I think the more realistic is ending up with 3 wins -- Wagner, UMass, and splitting one of the Navy/ECU games, most likely ECU. We hit the Vegas o2.5 and can build into next year with a relatively experienced QB and a defense that will be leaps and bounds better than where it was in 2018.
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