Programs on the rise, and programs on the decline

[EricLA]

I was thinking about the programs new to the top 10/25 and it got me to thinking - which programs do we fans see as "on the rise" compared to programs heading in the other direction and "on the decline"?

I'm not talking about programs who are just having a good year, but programs that truly seem to be moving in an upward direction with coaching, results, future recruiting, etc... For those reasons I'm taking UCONN and ND out of the equation because both teams have been to the last 5 final 4's and both are already "there"...

Off the top of my head...

• Baylor, Texas, OSU, Maryland - all of them are not only final 4 contenders, but also have strong underclassmen as well as strong recruits for 2016
• Louisville, Florida State, UCLA, Purdue, Vandy - All of them have some good youngsters and some top 30'ish recruits for 2016
• South Carolina - Nowhere really to go as far as up and 2015 recruiting was a bust - their lone recruit decommitted. For 2016, the best they could do is a solid (but unspectacular) class with a top 35 kid and a top 75 kid. But they add 2 top 10 kids in Gray and Davis. I think 2017 is a big year for them.
  
• Not sure about programs like Mississippi State, aTm, Missouri, USC, Washington, Ariz State, Oregon State, Nebraska, etc. Will ASU, Miss State, Oregon State and aTm remain top 15 teams after their seniors graduate?
  
• What about middle of the road type of programs - Depaul, SJU, WVU, OK State, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Florida, etc? Are they on the way up, or experiencing just a good year now?
  
• I also want to add that in our own conference, it seems that Temple, Tulane and USF are having solid seasons and their futures seem solid as well. Maybe add in Memphis...

Programs that seem to be on the downward spiral:

• Rutgers - currently 10th in the B10 and they graduate 6 seniors
• Duke - Out of the top 25 for the first time in 15 years, still with a cadre of AA's on the roster, but with only 1 top 100 kid for 2016 (granted she's a top 10 kid), I'm not sure the coaching will get them back into the top 25 next year. The good news is they only graduate Hensen and Riggs this year and I'm not sure either is a starter...
• Tennessee - their slow, painful spiral has been chronicled in gory detail on this board, and it's even worse on the Tenn boards. FIRE HOLLY is the manta of the month and in spite of all the talent on paper, they continue to be just average. Add to that 2016 was a complete bust in recruiting, and if 2017 does not bring some serious top 20 talent, the slide will get even worse.
  
• Stanford - I know they were a final 4 team just a few years back, but the Ogwumike sisters have graduated and they simply don't have the talent they used to have. They are 5th in their own league and their highest rated 2016 kid is #24. For 2015 the highest was #38. They are in serious trouble of having a team with little to no AA's and of falling further in their own league
• UNC - what a hot mess - even worse than Tennessee. HC has leukemia, program is under investigation, and all 4 of the top 20 kids (Deshields, Muvunga, Gray and Washington) transferred out. I don't see anything good in their immediate future...

What do the rest of you think?

 

[SCGamecock]

Doesn't Stanford have 3 McDonald's All-Americans on the way? They may be young but Tara is a proven coach. For Stanford, I wouldn't say declining.. but they are on a plateau of sorts.

 

[EricLA]

Doesn't Stanford have 3 McDonald's All-Americans on the way? They may be young but Tara is a proven coach. For Stanford, I wouldn't say declining.. but they are on a plateau of sorts.

2016? Their highest rated recruit is #26 - Nadia Fingall. For 2015, it was #38 Marta Sniezak...

 

[Checkmate]

I have watched part of 2 games tonight, Notre Dame vs Ga. Tech and Ohio State vs NW - neither ND or OSU look like top 10 teams. Most of the top ten teams have major weaknesses .

There may be teams moving up the polls, however I do not see many teams playing at a high level.

Update; The Ohio State leads Northwestern by 1 ND by about 6 over a bad GA Tech team -- 4 minutes left in the 3Q

 

[pacific 44]

Stanford has a rigorous exam that their athletes have to pass to be accepted and there are many great h.s.basketball players who would have Stanford as their first choice if they could get in.Their football team has an exemption from this exam because the university deems football to be of a much greater significance to the university.I guarantee that Stanford would get 2 or 3 of the top ten h.s.athletes every year if the entrance challenges were lessened for the female athletes.In no way am i saying that the university should give the athletes an sec/North Carolina deal where other people do their schoolwork,only that the girls basketball athletes have the somewhat simpler path to acceptance that their male counterparts do.We would probably be expecting Stanford to be in the final 4 this year and many years to come instead of discussing their decline.I'm actually quite surprised that some of the anti-discrimination powers that be haven't challenged the school to either hold the football players to the same standard or give all of the school's athletes the same standard.Tara must have tried to improve her ability to recruit more of the better athletes and failed and where is Condoleeza Rice?She is a huge wcbb fan.She must have some pull at this very prestigious school.

 

[Kaizen]

We would probably be expecting Stanford to be in the final 4 this year and many years to come instead of discussing their decline.I'm actually quite surprised that some of the anti-discrimination powers that be haven't challenged the school to either hold the football players to the same standard or give all of the school's athletes the same standard.Tara must have tried to improve her ability to recruit more of the better athletes and failed and where is Condoleeza Rice?She is a huge wcbb fan.She must have some pull at this very prestigious school.

There is no way Stanford will be in the final 4 this year.
I still remember Stanford lost to Arizona State with an embarrassing record of only 31 pts.

 

[SCGamecock]

2016? Their highest rated recruit is #26 - Nadia Fingall. For 2015, it was #38 Marta Sniezak...

Yea, that's surprising considering they have 3 McDonald's All-Americans on the way.. Nadia Fingall, Dijonai Carrington and Anna Wilson.

 

[EricLA]

Yea, that's surprising considering they have 3 McDonald's All-Americans on the way.. Nadia Fingall, Dijonai Carrington and Anna Wilson.

That is surprising considering Fingall is 28, Carrington is 34 and Wilson is 58.

Blue Star has Wilson at 42, Carrington at 43, and I couldn't find Fingall in their top 80.

 

[Zorro]

There is no way Stanford will be in the final 4 this year.
I still remember Stanford lost to Arizona State with an embarrassing record of only 31 pts.

I'm afraid you missed the point, Kaizen, a not uncommon occurrence on the BY. Pac44 is not saying that Stanford WILL make the final four, but that they WOULD make the final four pretty much every year if all the girls who wanted to go to Stanford COULD get admitted. Prolly right, too.

 

[EricLA]

I'm afraid you missed the point, Kaizen, a not uncommon occurrence on the BY. Pac44 is not saying that Stanford WILL make the final four, but that they WOULD make the final four pretty much every year if all the girls who wanted to go to Stanford COULD get admitted. Prolly right, too.

Butcha are, Blanche, ya' are! LOL! Sort of tongue in cheek, but my point is that Stanford has the academic requirements that they do and that's the reality. Duke, Notre Dame, and I'm not sure who else are able to get kids to go there, but I'm guessing the admissions are far easier than at Stanford. I wonder if Tara would consider taking over Duke - I think she could be a NC contender every year if she coached there... but the reality is she's at Stanford...

 

[pinotbear]

I was thinking about the programs new to the top 10/25 and it got me to thinking - which programs do we fans see as "on the rise" compared to programs heading in the other direction and "on the decline"?

I'm not talking about programs who are just having a good year, but programs that truly seem to be moving in an upward direction with coaching, results, future recruiting, etc... For those reasons I'm taking UCONN and ND out of the equation because both teams have been to the last 5 final 4's and both are already "there"...

Programs that seem to be on the downward spiral:

• Rutgers - currently 10th in the B10 and they graduate 6 seniors
• Duke - Out of the top 25 for the first time in 15 years, still with a cadre of AA's on the roster, but with only 1 top 100 kid for 2016 (granted she's a top 10 kid), I'm not sure the coaching will get them back into the top 25 next year. The good news is they only graduate Hensen and Riggs this year and I'm not sure either is a starter...
• Tennessee - their slow, painful spiral has been chronicled in gory detail on this board, and it's even worse on the Tenn boards. FIRE HOLLY is the manta of the month and in spite of all the talent on paper, they continue to be just average. Add to that 2016 was a complete bust in recruiting, and if 2017 does not bring some serious top 20 talent, the slide will get even worse.
  
• Stanford - I know they were a final 4 team just a few years back, but the Ogwumike sisters have graduated and they simply don't have the talent they used to have. They are 5th in their own league and their highest rated 2016 kid is #24. For 2015 the highest was #38. They are in serious trouble of having a team with little to no AA's and of falling further in their own league
• UNC - what a hot mess - even worse than Tennessee. HC has leukemia, program is under investigation, and all 4 of the top 20 kids (Deshields, Muvunga, Gray and Washington) transferred out. I don't see anything good in their immediate future...

What do the rest of you think?

"Goin' down, down, down, down, down, down, down, down, DOWN, DOWN, DOWN, DOWN, down, down, down down"!

 

[Kaizen]

UConn going up, up, up. ...............

 

[SCGamecock]

That is surprising considering Fingall is 28, Carrington is 34 and Wilson is 58.

Blue Star has Wilson at 42, Carrington at 43, and I couldn't find Fingall in their top 80.

IMO, they were all over the place with the selections for the MDAAG this year.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

.

Off the top of my head...

• Baylor, Texas, OSU, Maryland - all of them are not only final 4 contenders, but also have strong underclassmen as well as strong recruits for 2016
• Louisville, Florida State, UCLA, Purdue, Vandy - All of them have some good youngsters and some top 30'ish recruits for 2016
• South Carolina - Nowhere really to go as far as up and 2015 recruiting was a bust - their lone recruit decommitted. For 2016, the best they could do is a solid (but unspectacular) class with a top 35 kid and a top 75 kid. But they add 2 top 10 kids in Gray and Davis. I think 2017 is a big year for them.
  
• Not sure about programs like Mississippi State, aTm, Missouri, USC, Washington, Ariz State, Oregon State, Nebraska, etc. Will ASU, Miss State, Oregon State and aTm remain top 15 teams after their seniors graduate?
  
• What about middle of the road type of programs - Depaul, SJU, WVU, OK State, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Florida, etc? Are they on the way up, or experiencing just a good year now?
  
• I also want to add that in our own conference, it seems that Temple, Tulane and USF are having solid seasons and their futures seem solid as well. Maybe add in Memphis...

What do the rest of you think?

Louisville - on the rise over a period of years. Ditto Florida State. Maybe UCLA.
Purdue is a once proud program. After last year, can only go up. Vandy is wildly inconsistent, I wouldn't say they are on the rise, but that's just me.
Mississippi State, Missouri, Washington, Oregon State are all probably solid on the rise (Mizzou is a question, but coach is well thought of, others are solid). A&M I think is running into the point that Blair is old. USC isn't anywhere right now, may be a future bright spot. Arizona State was and is, she is a very good coach. Very defensive minded for those carping about Stanford.
OK is what it is, it isn't really a FF contender unless she strikes recruiting gold. Ditto the other middle of the road-ers. DePaul is a success historically. SJU is the best of "on the rise".

I sort of think you confuse "on the rise" with having a better than average year, but always a decent program. In general, I don't see any of them suddenly moving into the top 5. Most have been generally successful.