Profile 3/9 Version

[BFieldHusky]

Selection Sunday is a week away!

22-9. 14-6 in the BE. Home: 14-2/ Away: 7-4/ Neutral: 1-3

Our metrics as of this morning:

NET: 32
KenPom: 36
ESPN BPI: 17

Quad 1: 5-5
Quad 2: 7-3
Quad 3: 4-1
Quad 4: 6-0

Notable Wins (NET rankings)

Baylor (H) 33
Texas (A) 42
Gonzaga (N) 8
Marquette (A) 25 (x2)
Creighton (A) 38

Notable Losses:

Colorado (N) 91
Dayton (N) 66
Seton Hall (A) 214

Bracketology:

Jerry Palm: 8 (3/8)
Joe Lunardi: 8 (3/8)
Mike Decourcy 8 (3/8) (32 on his S-curve, the last 8 seed).

Commentary: UConn is still on the 8/9 line as they head into the conference tournament. The positives are the 5 Quad 1 wins, with all 4 of those of those wins coming away from home. The negatives are the last two losses in Maui, and the loss to Seton Hall. This team is playing for seeding now, with potentially 3 Quad One games on a neutral floor (Villanova is just on the outside of a Quad 1 neutral court win right now).

We need to keep winning, and get some help to get to that 7 line. We need teams like Kansas, Ole Miss, Memphis, UCLA and BYU to lose early in their conference tournaments. The metric don't like us this year.

I think UConn needs to get to the BE finals at a minimum to get to the 7 line, hoping to play Villanova, Creighton and St. John's.

I'll provide other teams profiles later today so we can look at resume comparisons.

 

[Brochacho]

I imagine the bracket will be 95% set as of Saturday. If we make it to the championship game, I don't see us in the 8/9, no matter who we beat to get there. Don't think you can risk putting the back to back champion and potential P5 conference winner in the 8/9 game - top seed would be pissed. If we go 1-1, I think we are locked into the 8/9 game. All about making it to Saturday.

 

[bendm]

Yikes the LAST 8 seed…Jumping those 4 teams the last week of the season will be tough. I especially don’t like seeing Memphis there given the head to head L plus I’m assuming they’re expected to win the AAC tourney. KU also playing better.

Would beating Nova and Creighton even be enough or do we have to win the BET by beating SJU too? Finishing 3rd in the BE and getting an 8 is a travesty. Once upon a time That was worthy of a 1 seed.

 

[sdglast]

While I understand that metrics are huge, I think BPI better reflects this team than Pomeroy or NET...I say that as take Louisville. You compare their resume to UConn's as far as quality wins and tough games go, and UConn's resume is so much better. Yes, UConn has 2 terrible losses, but I think the quality wins well outweigh those losses. I may be wrong, but I think UConn can get as high as a 6 (unlikely) or 7 (more probable) with wins on Thursday and Friday.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

The Big East in general is getting heavily disrespected. SJU is not even guaranteed a 2 seed. Marquette, UConn, Creighton all between a 7-9 seed. Xavier is 50/50 to get in.

 

[Scottzer]

I’d rather be a 10 than an 8/9. This year, the 1 seeds are a lot better than our team. I could see knocking off the right 2 seed in the second round, but I just don’t see a win against Auburn, Houston, Florida, or Duke. If I had to pick one, I would just hope that they play out of their minds and Duke’s youth faltered. But, that’s playing with fire.

 

[Hurleyman216]

So just playing devil’s advocate year but how many seed lines did poor officiating cost us this year? You can start with that Memphis game which absolutely should have been a win if not for the blown over the back call at the end…that win would have kept us from playing Dayton and Colorado which would have dramatically impacted our SOS. There are another 3-4 games that were 100% impacted by poor reffing. Just off the top of my head the 5 point loss to Creighton where they took 10 more free throws than us and the loss at Seton Hall where Solo Ball got tackled which resulted in a fumble to lose at the buzzer. The 2 point loss at Nova where we shot 54% to their 43%, outrebounded them by 9 and had 23 assists to their 11 but lost at the free throw line (AK’s misses at the end and Nova took 9 more free throws). I could go on, but by my rough calculation the awful whistle this team got probably cost us 2-3 seed lines and now we’re staring down at having to play a top 4 team in round 2. Nothing to do about it now but win the damn BE tourney and get off the 8 line.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

So just playing devil’s advocate year but how many seed lines did poor officiating cost us this year? You can start with that Memphis game which absolutely should have been a win if not for the blown over the back call at the end…that win would have kept us from playing Dayton and Colorado which would have dramatically impacted our SOS. There are another 3-4 games that were 100% impacted by poor reffing. Just off the top of my head the 5 point loss to Creighton where they took 10 more free throws than us and the loss at Seton Hall where Solo Ball got tackled which resulted in a fumble to lose at the buzzer. The 2 point loss at Nova where we shot 54% to their 43%, outrebounded them by 9 and had 23 assists to their 11 but lost at the free throw line (AK’s misses at the end and Nova took 9 more free throws). I could go on, but by my rough calculation the awful whistle this team got probably cost us 2-3 seed lines and now we’re staring down at having to play a top 4 team in round 2. Nothing to do about it now but win the damn BE tourney and get off the 8 line.

Not directly related to officiating but this pretty much sums up what you’re saying. We are way undervalued going into the tourney.

 

[RJScootin]

Hard to get rid of the stank of that seton hall L.

 

[Marat]

I’d rather be a 10 than an 8/9. This year, the 1 seeds are a lot better than our team. I could see knocking off the right 2 seed in the second round, but I just don’t see a win against Auburn, Houston, Florida, or Duke. If I had to pick one, I would just hope that they play out of their minds and Duke’s youth faltered. But, that’s playing with fire.

Would be better to play Duke in the regionals in NJ of course. Need to get off the 8/9 line. Need to make it to Saturday.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Quick comparison going off Decourcey's S-Curve:

32. UConn: 32 NET; Quad 1: 5-5; Quad 2: 7-3; Quad 3: 4-1; Quad 4: 6-0 (Last 8 seed)

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25. UCLA: 24 NET; Quad 1: 9-7; Quad 2: 5-1; Quad 3: 1-1; Quad 4: 7-0 (1st 7 seed)

26. Kansas: 18 NET; Quad 1: 5-10; Quad 2: 6-1; Quad 3: 6-0; Quad 4: 3-0

27. Illinois: 15 NET; Quad 1: 8-9; Quad 2: 6-2; Quad 3: 0-0; Quad 4: 6-0

28. Ole Miss: 28 NET; Quad 1: 7-9; Quad 2: 5-1, Quad 3: 2-0, Quad 4: 7-0 (Last 7 seed)

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Couple of notes: UConn is 12-7 in Q1/Q2. That's tied for wins with Ole Miss, and more wins in that category than Kansas. UConn also has 8 wins on the road/neutral courts, which is more than UCLA, Kansas, Illinois and tied with Ole Miss.

The Q3 loss hurts, and we haven't had the Q1 opportunities that these teams have had.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

Our crappy defense that never really improved much all year has just killed our metrics and W/L total all year.

Better defense gives us a bigger buffer zone to dodge those crappy/tough tight losses to Colorado, Seton Hall, Nova, Memphis. Also puts us in the mix to legitimately win the Creighton (H), Xavier (A), St Johns (H). Plus makes the MOV and Pts/100Poss much better even in our wins.

We could be in the KenPom 18-25 range even with the same record but with a defense that allowed 2-3 fewer pts per 100 possessions. That's literally 1-2 more stops per game.

Oh well, we made our bed all year long. Now we're in it. Let's do something about it.

 

[HooperScooper]

Our crappy defense that never really improved much all year has just killed our metrics and W/L total all year.

Hurley did say early in the season that if the team didn't play much better defense then they weren't going to have the season they expected.