Productivity and intangibles

[facey76]

I am a big believer in intangibles where basketball players are concerned. A bad shot passed up, defensive pressure that results in a shot clock violation, simply denying the player you are guarding from taking a shot or receiving a pass, none of these things show up in the box score. There are players who don't score much who are valuable anyway, Kelly Faris was the poster child for this, and I think Kia Nurse is in that category. However, there are plenty of tangible and quantifiable things that must be done on the court to win a game.

I have a rating system for this statistical productivity that shows a players box score contributions all rolled into a single rating per minute played. This is similar to the BRATS, but it also pulls in offensive efficiency and scoring.

This ends up being skewed somewhat towards scoring forwards, but steals and assists are counted so guards can do well in this too if they are also efficient scorers.

The current ratings through last night’s Tulane game are:

Pulido, Briana -0.059
Lawlor, Tierney 0.109
Ekmark,Courtney 0.255
Nurse, Kia 0.271
Chong, Saniya 0.330
Samuelson, K L 0.400
Tuck, Morgan 0.478
Jefferson, Mo 0.481
Collier, Napheesa 0.514
Butler, Natalie 0.554
Williams, Gabby 0.635
Stewart, Breanna 0.812

You can see that Breanna's offensive efficiency plus her passing and rebounding have her well above everybody else. Gabby is next followed by Nat then Collier.

I might have though Collier would be as high as Gabby but Gabby is an efficient scorer and gets plenty of rebounds, assists and steals, which brings her right to the top.
Also note Natalie Butler’s score, right between Gabby and Napheesa.

the formula is:
(points minus (.75 x attempts)), + offensive rebounds + (.75 x defensive rebounds),
+ steals + (.5 x blocks) + assists, minus (.25 x fouls committed), and minus turnovers;
total of above is divided by minutes played.

 

[CocoHusky]

I guess I have been reading box scores long enough to be consider somewhat of a skeptical dinosaur because I don't believe what the application of your formula is trying to tell me. Efficiency will go down with more minutes played. For example Moriah is leading UCONN in minutes played at 31, Napheesa is averaging 19 Minutes per game. Your numbers imply that Moriah is less efficient (less productive) in those 31 minutes than Napheesa is in 19 minutes. I apologize if I'm drawing the wrong conclusion but there is such a thing as a season box score, from which noone could ever reach that conclusion.

 

[UcMiami]

I am a big believer in intangibles where basketball players are concerned. A bad shot passed up, defensive pressure that results in a shot clock violation, simply denying the player you are guarding from taking a shot or receiving a pass, none of these things show up in the box score. There are players who don't score much who are valuable anyway, Kelly Faris was the poster child for this, and I think Kia Nurse is in that category. However, there are plenty of tangible and quantifiable things that must be done on the court to win a game.

I have a rating system for this statistical productivity that shows a players box score contributions all rolled into a single rating per minute played. This is similar to the BRATS, but it also pulls in offensive efficiency and scoring.

This ends up being skewed somewhat towards scoring forwards, but steals and assists are counted so guards can do well in this too if they are also efficient scorers.

The current ratings through last night’s Tulane game are:

Pulido, Briana -0.059
Lawlor, Tierney 0.109
Ekmark,Courtney 0.255
Nurse, Kia 0.271
Chong, Saniya 0.330
Samuelson, K L 0.400
Tuck, Morgan 0.478
Jefferson, Mo 0.481
Collier, Napheesa 0.514
Butler, Natalie 0.554
Williams, Gabby 0.635
Stewart, Breanna 0.812

You can see that Breanna's offensive efficiency plus her passing and rebounding have her well above everybody else. Gabby is next followed by Nat then Collier.

I might have though Collier would be as high as Gabby but Gabby is an efficient scorer and gets plenty of rebounds, assists and steals, which brings her right to the top.
Also note Natalie Butler’s score, right between Gabby and Napheesa.

the formula is:
(points minus (.75 x attempts)), + offensive rebounds + (.75 x defensive rebounds),
+ steals + (.5 x blocks) + assists, minus (.25 x fouls committed), and minus turnovers;
total of above is divided by minutes played.

Interesting, but I would say heavily weighted toward forward/posts because the weighting is heavily in favor of rebounds and away from points, and other values -

A good team scores a little more than 1 point per shot taken and if they take 60 shots and scored 80 points your formula assigns the team as a whole 80 - 45 or 35 points - the same team records say 46 rebounds of which ten are offensive so it assigns 10 + 27 (36x.75) 37 points for rebounds.
So points assigned:
35 - points
37 - rebounds
20 - assists
10 - steals
2 - blocks
-4 - fouls
-15 TOs
Total 85 / 200 = .425 of which .185 is rebounds and .175 is points - the other stats accounting for only .065
I am using values not far off what Uconn achieves maybe more in line with a Baylor or ND.

A few thoughts -
The scoring is weighted towards forward players and driving guards and against jump shooters for two reasons - 1) the heavy penalty for inaccuracy: good jump shooters hit 50% and good post players and guards shooting lots of lay-ups hit 60+%; 2) the heavy bonus for shooting fouls drawn - most shooting fouls occur within five feet of the basket (don't foul a jump shooter) and FTs are free points in your system because they don't count against 'attempts'.

I agree with the full value of offensive boards being used as that is mostly individual effort, but defensive rebounding is a team activity and requires all players to participate but rewards the tallest players most often. There are frequently two three or four defenders who could rebound a ball, but it most generally falls to the forwards who have been defending closest to the rim. A possession is typically rewarded by one offensive point and in your system only 0.50 since it typical takes two shots to achieve 2 points and you are subtracting 1.5 points for the two attempts - but the defensive rebounders have already gotten 1.5 points for their two rebounds.

I don't see how you could easily correct the points imbalance, and while free throws are bonus points, they do represent added value to a teams as they represent fouls drawn - a stat that is recorded in international play but not in the US and which can have real value for a team as it can reduce the availability and flow of opponent players. But I think you could perhaps better represent team value by reducing the defensive rebound value to be more in line with offensive points available and the team nature of the stat - 0.25 or 0.5 would be a better valuation and tend to balance team results more evenly.

 

[UcMiami]

Uconn season average numbers based on your formula:
Points - 50 - (90 - 50 (66 shot attempts x.75))
Rebounds - 34 (13 + 21 (28 defensive rebounds x.75))
Assists - 22
Steals - 12
Blocks - 3
Fouls - -3
TOs - -12
Total = 106 divided by 200 = 0.503

ND - 35 + 32 + 18 + 10 + 3 - 4 - 15 = 79 = .395
SC - 32 + 38 + 15 + 8 + 3 - 4 - 14 = 78 = .390
Baylor - 32 + 38 + 22 + 9 + 3 - 4 - 15 = 85 = .425